Next UNC Basketball Coach Odds: Donovan Emerges as Sole Target After Lloyd, May Say No

By Thomas Leary

Apr 6th, 2026 9:43 AM EDT

Davis is in hot water after 5 seasons in Chapel Hill (USATODAY)

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UPDATED — April 6, 2026: Tommy Lloyd signed an extension to stay at Arizona. Dusty May told UNC he's not pursuing college jobs. Nate Oats re-upped at Alabama. UNC is now solely focused on Billy Donovan, per Jeff Goodman. The transfer portal opens tomorrow. The board has been fundamentally reshaped.

Two weeks ago, this was the best coaching opening in college basketball. A wide-open search with a dozen elite names circling one of the sport's most storied programs. Today, it looks a lot more like a game of musical chairs — and the music is getting very quiet.

Tommy Lloyd said no. Not quietly — he said it on the eve of the Final Four, signing a five-year, $7.2-million-per-year extension to stay at Arizona after UNC reportedly offered him a top-two contract in the sport. That was Friday. By Sunday, Dusty May had told UNC officials he's "not pursuing any college basketball jobs," per ESPN's Pete Thamel. May's Michigan squad plays for the national championship tonight in Indianapolis, and he appears committed to Ann Arbor for the long haul.

Nate Oats signed a new long-term extension to stay at Alabama. TJ Otzelberger reiterated his commitment to Iowa State. Mark Byington inked a new deal at Vanderbilt, though CBS reports that shouldn't stop UNC from making the call.

The field has thinned dramatically. And the clock isn't slowing down.

The transfer portal opens tomorrow, April 7. UNC needs a head coach — or at least a credible plan — before the best portal talent commits elsewhere. The Bulls' regular season ends April 12, which is the earliest Billy Donovan would seriously engage. That's a five-day gap between the portal opening and Donovan being available for real conversations, and it could cost the Tar Heels dearly in roster building.

North Carolina is now "solely focusing its efforts on Billy Donovan," according to Jeff Goodman of the Field of 68. They expect to know more in the next 24 hours.

It's time for the updated Next UNC Coach Odds from Bookies.com.

#	Candidate	Odds	Implied Probability
1	Billy Donovan	-135	57.4%
2	Dusty May	+900	10.0%
3	Mark Byington	+1100	8.3%
4	Grant McCasland	+1400	6.7%
5	Ben McCollum	+1600	5.9%
6	Josh Schertz	+2000	4.8%
7	The Field	+600	14.3%
—	Lloyd / Oats / Otzelberger	OFF	—

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The Candidates Still Standing

Billy Donovan (-135) is the clear favorite and UNC's sole focus as of Sunday night. Two national championships at Florida. Nineteen years of college coaching experience. A decade-plus in the NBA with Oklahoma City and Chicago. No buyout required — just a contract negotiation. His Kalshi prediction market price surged from 30% to 70% after Lloyd's withdrawal on Friday.

The timing is the complication. Donovan has made clear he won't entertain conversations until after the Bulls' season ends on April 12. That's six days from now, and five days after the transfer portal opens. If Donovan says yes, UNC will have its coach — but the portal head start will have been costly. If he says no, the search enters genuinely uncharted territory for a program of this stature. Donovan told reporters last week that "a lot of college guys" have reached out over the years and acknowledged the landscape has changed. The Bulls are 29-43 and fading fast. The question isn't whether UNC wants Donovan. It's whether Donovan wants to come back to college basketball — and whether he'd rather wait for an NBA opening instead.

Dusty May (+900) publicly said he's not pursuing the job, but his name stays on the board for one reason: Michigan plays for the national championship tonight. If the Wolverines lose, the calculus could shift. May has Big Ten roots — he was a student manager at Indiana for Bob Knight — and Michigan's AD Warde Manuel has said three times publicly that he'll do "everything we have to do" to retain May. That kind of public fight usually means the threat is real. His buyout is $7.5 million. If Donovan says no and May reconsiders, he'd be the next call.

Mark Byington (+1100) signed a new contract at Vanderbilt, but CBS Sports reports that shouldn't stop UNC from making the call if the top names fall through. Byington has exceeded expectations at every stop — Georgia Southern, James Madison, Vanderbilt — and has made the NCAA Tournament in each of his two seasons with the Commodores. At 49, he's young enough for a long tenure and has proven portal-evaluation chops that translate directly to what UNC needs.

Grant McCasland (+1400) is the emerging name that wasn't on our original board. The Texas Tech coach has gone 74-31 in three seasons in Lubbock, with three NCAA Tournament appearances. He previously led drastic turnarounds at mid-major programs Arkansas State and North Texas, including the Mean Green's first NCAA Tournament win. His buyout is north of $10 million, which is significant, but his stock has risen sharply on the Kalshi prediction markets since Lloyd's withdrawal.

Ben McCollum (+1600) saw his stock rise during Iowa's Elite Eight run, even though the Hawkeyes fell to Illinois 71-59 on Saturday. At 44 years old with just two Division I seasons under his belt, McCollum is the kind of long-term investment hire that appeals if UNC wants to build something from scratch. He's next in line per CBS Sports' reporting on the UNC pecking order after Donovan and May.

Josh Schertz (+2000) has a complication: ESPN reports he's now expected to be at or near the top of NC State's coaching short list as well. The Wolfpack opening could pull Schertz's attention in a different direction. He's won at every level — Division II, Indiana State, Saint Louis — and his teams play a beautiful brand of basketball, but his candidacy for two different ACC jobs simultaneously makes the situation murky.

The Field (+600) has grown wider and more relevant. Brad Stevens checks every box but hasn't coached since 2021. Dan Hurley just took UConn to another Final Four — beating Duke on a last-second three — but appears locked in at Storrs. If Donovan declines and May doesn't reconsider, UNC could be looking at a scenario similar to Kentucky's hiring of Mark Pope in 2024: a good coach, but far from the first choice. The "dark horse" ESPN mentioned last week remains unnamed.

What This Search Comes Down To

The narrative has shifted from "who will UNC pick?" to "will anyone pick UNC?" That's an uncomfortable place for a program with six national championships, 21 Final Fours, and a brand that's supposed to sell itself. Lloyd leveraged the Tar Heels' interest into generational money at Arizona. May used it to reinforce his position at Michigan. Oats and Otzelberger parlayed the speculation into new deals at their current schools.

UNC has suspended arena discussions, lost Caleb Wilson to the draft, and is staring down a portal opening without a head coach. The program is competing for resources with Bill Belichick's football operation, navigating a UNC System president who must approve any coaching contract, and operating without a permanent athletic director (Steve Newmark doesn't officially take over until July 1).

Billy Donovan is the last best hope for a splashy hire. If he says yes, everything changes overnight. If he says no, UNC will need to pivot quickly to Byington, McCasland, McCollum, or Schertz — all excellent coaches, but none carrying the national profile Carolina expected when this search began two weeks ago.

The portal opens tomorrow. The clock is ticking. This is the most consequential coaching decision in Carolina basketball history since Dean Smith took over in 1961.

Next UNC Basketball Coach Odds: Donovan Emerges as Sole Target After Lloyd, May Say No

The Candidates Still Standing

What This Search Comes Down To

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