NFL Divisional Playoffs AFC Best Bets: Oddsmakers Favor Bills At Denver; Patriots At Home
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Our NFL Divisional Playoffs AFC Best Bets have the Buffalo Bills visiting top-seed Denver. The No.2 seed New England Patriots play host to Houston, winners over Pittsburgh 30-6 Monday night. The Bills-Broncos game takes place Saturday at 4:30 p.m. on CBS. The Patriots-Texans game kicks off Sunday at 3 p.m. on ABC & ESPN. All times Eastern.
Josh Allen again carried the Bills on his back Sunday as Buffalo beat host Jacksonville 27-24. The Bills stampede into Denver as a 1.5-point favorite, especially at the best sports betting apps. Buffalo rides a wave of inevitability after nabbing its first postseason road win since January of 1993 in the Wild Card Round. With Patrick Mahomes watching the postseason on TV, many believe the field has finally cleared for Allen to reach the Super Bowl. He played like it on Sunday.
The Broncos and Patriots tied with 14-3 records during the regular season. Denver snagged the No. 1 seed thanks to one of the NFL's convoluted tie-breakers. Sean Payton continues to balance a stout defense while limiting Bo Nix from having to carry too much of a load on his metaphorical shoulders. The Bills and Broncos met in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs last season. Host Buffalo delivered a rude postseason introduction to Nix, winning with ease, 31-7.
Oddsmakers installed the Bills as the favorite this week in sizable part due to Allen's big-game experience and the Bills' ability to move the ball on the ground, regardless of who might be carrying it. The Broncos have an edge in terms of home field, and get the Bills after the bye coming off a short week.
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Patriots Face Texans In Foxboro
AFC East champion New England enters its matchup against Wild Card entrant Houston as 2.5-point favorites. The Texans likely closed Aaron Rodgers' career Monday with a pick-six, and a strip-sack that was run in for a touchdown. C.J. Stroud struggled to generate much offense against the Steelers, especially after Nico Collins left with head injury. Both Collins, and New England star cornerback Christian Gonzalez, could miss the game Sunday due to concussion-related concerns.
The Texans won their first playoff game on the road in franchise history Monday. New England captured its first postseason victory since Super Bowl 53 in short-circuiting the Chargers. The Patriots defense throttled Justin Herbert all night. Meanwhile, Drake Maye did just enough to deliver a 16-3 win. New England's defense emerged fully healthy Sunday and it has served notice that - just like in the early days of Tom Brady - the Patriots can win with defense when it matters. The Patriots share a piece of the best record in the NFL against the spread at 12-5-1.
NFL Divisional Round AFC Best Bets
Buffalo Bills (13-5) at Denver Broncos (14-3)
Saturday, January 17
Time, TV: 4:30 p.m. (CBS)
BUZZ: The Bills began the week as 1.5-point road favorites against the No. 1-seed Broncos. Josh Allen is the reason why. Allen has a clear path the to Super Bowl without Mahomes or Joe Burrow in his way. Allen played as a man possessed Sunday. He dragged the Bills across the finish line Sunday, before Trevor Lawrence's last-minute interception sealed Buffalo's first road playoff win since George H.W. Bush was in the White House. With that psychological barrier removed, the Bills have that "Destiny's Darling" feel this season. Buffalo can move the ball on the ground or through the air. And while the Broncos may want to stack against the run, Allen's arm and mobility remains the most lethal offensive weapon in these playoffs.
The Broncos, despite their inherent advantage of rest, home field, and elevation, need Nix to deliver a flawless performance. He won't necessarily have to win this game for Sean Payton, but he cannot lose it. Denver's defense allowed just 18.3 points and 91.1 yards rushing per game this season. That means the Bills and Sean McDermott need to dig deep into the playbook. Or, in other words, let Josh Allen be Josh Allen.
This week, that's enough.
Best Bet: Bills ML (-120) BetMGM via OddsJam
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Houston Texans (13-5) at New England Patriots (15-3)
Sunday, January 18
Time, TV: 3 p.m. (ABC/ESPN)
BUZZ: AFC East champs New England open as 2.5-point favorites against Wild Card survivor Houston in a matchup that sets up as a classic defense-driven playoff game.
The Texans are coming off a historic road win — their first postseason victory away from home — punctuated by a pick-six and a strip-sack TD that may have closed the book on Aaron Rodgers’ career. But Houston’s offense showed real cracks. C.J. Stroud struggled to sustain drives against Pittsburgh, especially after Nico Collins exited with a head injury. Collins’ status is uncertain for Sunday, and New England could also be without shutdown corner Christian Gonzalez, who is dealing with concussion concerns of his own.
New England’s path here looked familiar. The Patriots snapped their playoff drought with a 16-3 dismantling of the Chargers, turning Justin Herbert into a bystander for four quarters. Drake Maye didn’t need to do much — and didn’t — as the Patriots leaned fully into a defense-first formula that felt straight out of the early Tom Brady era. But Maye threw a TD strike to Hunter Henry that nearly perfectly mimicked a pass Brady threw to Rob Gronkowski to set up the lone TD in Super Bowl 53. And his legs bailed out New England on key third-downs.
That formula has paid bettors all season. New England enters this round 12-5-1 ATS, tied for the best against-the-spread mark in the NFL. With the defense finally healthy and the offense asked only to avoid mistakes, the Patriots once again profile as a team built to win ugly — and cover while doing it. This number opened at 2.5 and quickly jumped to 3. Lay the 2.5.
Best Bet: Patriots -2.5 (-130) Fliff via OddsJam
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