2026 NFL Draft First Round Pick Predictions: Odds, Sleepers, and Best Bets for All 32 Picks
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The 2026 NFL Draft is two weeks away, and the odds board has never looked more volatile. Peter Schrager’s post-league-meetings mock has Caleb Downs sliding to the Cowboys at 12 and Makai Lemon landing with the Rams at 13. The Dolphins traded Jaylen Waddle to Denver for a first-round pick, giving Miami two selections in Round 1. Maxx Crosby declared “I’m back” with the Raiders after his trade to Baltimore collapsed. And the Steelers are circling Ty Simpson as their potential franchise QB at pick 21.
Here’s how the hypothetical NFL odds look for every first-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft in Pittsburgh (April 23–25), plus the best prop bets.
2026 NFL Draft Odds
First Round · All 32 Picks · Pittsburgh
Negative = Lock / heavy favorite · Higher = less likely · NEED Fills team need
Traded picks: #13 LAR via ATL · #16 NYJ via IND · #20 DAL via GB · #24 CLE via JAX · #29 KC via LAR · #30 MIA via DEN
Sources: PFF Big Board · Jeremiah · Brooks · Kiper · Zierlein · Davis · Parr · Edholm · Filice · Frelund · Wilson · Yates · Reuter · Schrager
April 9, 2026 edition. April 23–25, 2026 · Pittsburgh, PA.
How We Built These 2026 NFL Draft Odds
These are hypothetical odds, not lines available at your US sportsbook of choice. But they’re built on real data. We cross-referenced three layers to calculate implied probabilities for every first-round pick:
- PFF’s 2026 Big Board -- 315 prospects graded, the industry standard.
- Mock Draft Consensus -- 12+ expert mocks from Jeremiah, Kiper, Brooks, Zierlein, Davis, Yates, Reuter, Reid, and others.
- Team Needs -- Sourced from NFL.com, ESPN, CBS Sports, PFF, and Bleacher Report. Updated for free agency and trades through March 5.
- 2026 NFL Combine Results -- Measurements and on-field testing from Indianapolis (Feb. 26–Mar. 2).
When PFF rank, team need, and mock consensus all align, the odds tighten. When there’s disagreement, the field opens up. The result is a probability map across 32 picks and 160 player-pick combinations.
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What 2026 NFL Draft Odds Can You Bet Right Now?
DraftKings and FanDuel have posted markets for the 2026 NFL Draft. The most popular bets:
- No. 1 overall pick: Mendoza −20000 (99.5% implied). Heaviest favorite since Andrew Luck.
- First player drafted by position: Love is the favorite for first RB. Tyson and Tate lead the WR race. Downs is the clear first safety off the board.
- Draft position over/unders: Bain Jr. over/under 7.5 is the most debated line in the class after his concerning combine measurements.
- Team-specific props: Available for most top-15 teams. The Cowboys’ pick at 12 has the widest range of outcomes.
Our interactive tool models hypothetical odds for every pick based on PFF rankings, 12+ mock draft sources, combine results, and post-free-agency needs. Use them to spot value in the sportsbook markets.
Latest Mock Draft Intel: What Changed This Week
Schrager released his post-annual-meeting mock on April 7, packed with insider intel from Phoenix. The biggest takeaways:
- Downs to Dallas at 12: Ohio State DC Matt Patricia told Schrager that Downs will be the smartest player on whichever team drafts him. The Cowboys need a defensive identity piece, and Downs sliding past 10 is a real possibility.
- Lemon to the Rams at 13: Schrager says Lemon fits what LA does on offense and would signal the Rams are all-in to win in Stafford’s potentially final season.
- Styles falls to pick 4: Multiple mocks now have the combine freak lasting to Tennessee, where the Titans need a defensive anchor alongside Cam Ward.
- Waddle trade reshuffles the back half: Denver traded pick 30 and additional draft capital to Miami for Jaylen Waddle. The Dolphins now hold picks 11 and 30. Denver has no first-round pick.
- Crosby stays in Vegas: After the failed physical with Baltimore, Crosby said “I’m back.” The Raiders keep their star edge rusher but lost the second first-rounder they were banking on.
- Eagles QB buzz at 23: Rhett Lewis projects Philadelphia to make the biggest splash of the first round by taking a quarterback. Simpson and Nussmeier are the names.
2026 NFL Draft Odds: All 32 First-Round Picks
Pick 1: Las Vegas Raiders — Fernando Mendoza, QB (−20000)
The most locked-in pick in recent memory. Mendoza won the Heisman, led Indiana to a national title, and the Raiders signed Linderbaum ($81M) and Kirk Cousins (backup) to build around him. Crosby’s return means Vegas has a complete edge rusher but still just one first-round pick.
Pick 2: New York Jets — Arvell Reese, LB (−105)
The Jets signed Ossai, Enagbare, and Demario Davis at EDGE/LB, and traded for Fitzpatrick at safety. But Reese’s versatility to rush and cover makes him the ideal defensive building block. Bailey (+130) is the pure pass-rush alternative.
Pick 3: Arizona Cardinals — David Bailey, EDGE (−110)
Arizona released Kyler Murray and signed Minshew as a bridge. QB is a need but not at 3 — Bailey led the nation with 14.5 sacks and his 4.51 forty confirmed elite explosiveness. The Cardinals could trade back for Simpson later.
Pick 4: Tennessee Titans — Sonny Styles, LB (+100)
Styles’ combine was historic — sub-4.5 forty, 40-inch vertical, 11-foot broad at 244 pounds. Multiple post-combine mocks have him falling to Tennessee after picks 2 and 3 go EDGE. The Titans need a defensive tone-setter alongside Cam Ward.
Best bet: Styles at 4 (+100) has real value. His combine was the best LB workout in a decade and Tennessee’s need is undeniable.
Pick 5: New York Giants — Francis Mauigoa, OT (+110)
The Giants need to protect Jaxon Dart and rebuild the trenches. Mauigoa from Miami is the top OT on most boards and a plug-and-play starter at right tackle.
Pick 6: Cleveland Browns — Spencer Fano, OT (+110)
Cleveland added Howard and Vera-Tucker but still needs premium tackles. Fano from Utah is the second OT off the board in most mocks and fills the right side immediately. Two OTs in the top 6 would be historically unusual but both fits are strong.
Pick 7: Washington Commanders — Jeremiyah Love, RB (+110)
With Oweh (EDGE), Tunsil (OT), Chaisson (EDGE), Cross (S), and Okonkwo (TE) all signed, Washington’s offense needs a dynamic weapon for Jayden Daniels. Love is the best football player in the class regardless of position.
Pick 8: New Orleans Saints — Makai Lemon, WR (+100)
Etienne fills RB and Edwards fills OG. The 2025 Biletnikoff Award winner is the top receiver on the board and fills the Saints’ biggest remaining gap.
Pick 9: Kansas City Chiefs — Mansoor Delane, CB (+110)
After losing McDuffie and Watson, cornerback is the Chiefs’ most desperate need. Delane from LSU has elite man-coverage technique. Walker fills RB, Cook fills S, Kelce returns at TE — CB is the only premium hole left.
Pick 10: Cincinnati Bengals — Rueben Bain Jr., EDGE (+110)
PFF’s No. 1 prospect slides to 10 after sub-31-inch arms and skipped combine drills. But Cincinnati lost Hendrickson and Ossai — they’re desperate for pass rush. Bain’s talent outweighs the measurables at this price.
Best bet: Bain’s draft position over/under is the most interesting prop in the class. If he slides past 10, the value gets extreme.
Pick 11: Miami Dolphins — Jermod McCoy, CB (+110)
Willis fills QB. The Dolphins’ first of two first-round picks (also hold pick 30 via the Waddle trade) targets the secondary. McCoy is a top-10 talent whose ACL recovery is the only question.
Pick 12: Dallas Cowboys — Caleb Downs, S (+110)
The biggest value play in the draft. PFF’s No. 2 prospect slides to 12 because safety is historically undervalued. But Schrager’s intel from the league meetings has Downs firmly in Dallas’ crosshairs. He’d pair with Jalen Thompson and Malik Hooker to form the best safety trio in the NFL.
Best bet: Downs at 12 (+110) could be the steal of the entire draft. If sportsbooks post a Downs draft position prop, the over on 10.5 has serious value.
Pick 13: Los Angeles Rams (via ATL) — Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, S (+120)
The Rams signed McDuffie and Watson at CB, removing that need. Stafford committed to 2026. The Biletnikoff winner Lemon (+175) is the main alternative if McVay wants to go all-in on offense. But the secondary still needs a rangy safety, and McNeil-Warren from Toledo has the versatility to play multiple spots.
Pick 14: Baltimore Ravens — Jordyn Tyson, WR (+110)
The Crosby trade collapsed. Hendrickson fills EDGE. Linderbaum left for Vegas, creating an IOL need. But the passing game is the biggest gap — Tyson’s speed and route polish make him the top target. Ioane (IOL, +150) is the alternative.
Pick 15: Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Carnell Tate, WR (+110)
Mike Evans left for San Francisco. Tate from Ohio State has the contested-catch ability to step into a WR1 role immediately. The best candidate to carry the torch Evans held for a decade.
Pick 16: New York Jets (via IND) — Peter Woods, DL (+130)
The Jets’ second pick addresses the interior. Woods from Clemson had concerning arm measurements but his tape is dominant. Simpson (+700) is the long-shot QB option if the Jets pivot.
Pick 17: Detroit Lions — Monroe Freeling, OT (+150)
Decker requested his release. Freeling is the combine’s biggest OL riser. Multiple evaluators say Detroit won’t pass on a tackle if Freeling or Proctor is available here.
Pick 18: Minnesota Vikings — Dillon Thieneman, S (+130)
Harrison Smith retired. Murray was signed at QB. Thieneman from Oregon tested as one of the best athletes at the combine and fills the exact void Minnesota needs.
Pick 19: Carolina Panthers — Brandon Cisse, CB (+120)
Phillips ($120M) and Lloyd ($45M) fill EDGE and LB. Carolina’s secondary is the remaining weakness. Cisse from South Carolina is the best CB available in this range.
Pick 20: Dallas Cowboys (via GB) — T.J. Parker, EDGE (+130)
Dallas’ second pick. Even after trading for Gary, the Cowboys need more youth on the edge. Parker from Clemson pairs with Gary and Downs to completely remake the defense.
Pick 21: Pittsburgh Steelers — Ty Simpson, QB (+100)
The biggest storyline in the back half of Round 1. Simpson threw for 3,567 yards and 28 TDs at Alabama. Pittsburgh added Pittman (WR), Dowdle (RB), and Dean (CB) in free agency — the roster is ready for a young QB. Aaron Rodgers’ return is uncertain, making this the pivot point.
Best bet: Simpson at 21 (+100) is a coin flip, which is rare for a QB this late. If Rodgers retires, Simpson becomes a near-lock.
Pick 22: Los Angeles Chargers — Denzel Boston, WR (+150)
Boston from Washington has been compared to Puka Nacua. The Chargers need weapons for Justin Herbert after a quiet free agency.
Pick 23: Philadelphia Eagles — Gabe Jacas, EDGE (+140)
The Eagles lost Phillips to Carolina and need EDGE badly. Rhett Lewis projects Philly to take a QB here, but Jacas fills the more immediate need. Woolen fills CB.
Pick 24: Cleveland Browns (via JAX) — KC Concepcion, WR (+130)
Cleveland’s second pick targets weapons. Concepcion from Texas A&M is the most polished route runner available in the mid-first round.
Pick 25: Chicago Bears — Gennings Dunker, IOL (+150)
47 career starts at Iowa. Day 1 starter at guard. Chicago lost DJ Moore in the Buffalo trade and needs to protect Caleb Williams with better interior blocking.
Pick 26: Buffalo Bills — Caleb Banks, DL (+130)
Buffalo’s free-agency blitz addressed WR (Moore), EDGE (Chubb), S (CGJ), and TE (Knox). Schrager hears significant first-round DL buzz for the Bills. Banks from Florida is a massive run-stuffer who fills the interior gap — Buffalo ranked 30th against the run last season.
Pick 27: San Francisco 49ers — Kenyon Sadiq, TE (+130)
Evans fills WR. Osa fills DL. A mismatch tight end is the missing piece. Sadiq from Oregon has drawn Jimmy Graham comparisons for his after-the-catch ability.
Pick 28: Houston Texans — Caleb Lomu, OT (+140)
Houston traded Tytus Howard to Cleveland and desperately needs OL help. Lomu from Utah didn’t allow a sack in 2025.
Pick 29: Kansas City Chiefs (via LAR) — Colton Hood, CB (+140)
The Chiefs double up on corners. Hood stepped up for Tennessee in McCoy’s absence and could do the same in KC’s gutted secondary. Cisse and Terrell are alternatives.
Best bet: Hood at 29 (+140) is one of the safest late-first bets. KC’s secondary need is undeniable after losing both starters.
Pick 30: Miami Dolphins (via DEN) — Keldric Faulk, EDGE (+130)
Miami’s second first-rounder, acquired by trading Waddle to Denver. The Dolphins need to protect Willis and generate pressure. Faulk from Auburn has the size and athleticism to start Day 1 opposite David Ojabo.
Pick 31: New England Patriots — Zion Young, EDGE (+150)
The Patriots signed Doubs (WR) and Dre’Mont Jones (DL). Edge rusher is the remaining premium need. Young from Missouri led the SEC in pressures.
Pick 32: Seattle Seahawks — Derrick Moore, EDGE (+150)
Seattle lost Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III (RB) and Coby Bryant (S) but re-signed Shaheed and Mafe. The Seahawks need to restock the pass rush, and Moore from Michigan has the motor and size to develop into a starter.
2026 NFL Draft Odds: Frequently Asked Questions
Who will be the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft?
Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is the overwhelming favorite at −20000 (99.5% implied). He won the Heisman Trophy and national championship. The Raiders have already built around him by signing center Tyler Linderbaum and backup QB Kirk Cousins.
What are the best 2026 NFL Draft prop bets?
The most actionable props: Rueben Bain Jr.’s draft position over/under (arm length concerns could push him to 10+), Caleb Downs’ landing spot (sliding to Dallas at 12 has real value), Ty Simpson’s team (Steelers at 21 or Cardinals trading up), and whether the Chiefs draft two CBs in Round 1.
Who will the Cowboys pick in the 2026 NFL Draft?
Dallas has two first-round picks (12 and 20). After signing Gary (EDGE) and Thompson (S), Schrager’s latest mock has Caleb Downs (S) at pick 12 and T.J. Parker (EDGE) at pick 20.
Who will the Dolphins pick in the 2026 NFL Draft?
Miami holds two first-round picks (11 and 30) after trading Jaylen Waddle to Denver. Jermod McCoy (CB) leads at pick 11, while Keldric Faulk (EDGE) leads at pick 30.
When is the 2026 NFL Draft?
The 2026 NFL Draft takes place April 23–25 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Round 1 is Thursday night (April 23). Rounds 2–3 are Friday. Rounds 4–7 are Saturday.
The Bottom Line
Two weeks out, the 2026 NFL Draft board has three tiers of certainty. Mendoza at 1 is a lock. Picks 2–10 are defense-heavy with genuine debate at every slot. And picks 11–32 are the widest-open field in recent draft history — no favorite above 48% implied — which is where the real value lives for bettors.
The Waddle trade gave Miami a second first-rounder and eliminated Denver from Round 1. Downs sliding to Dallas is the most talked-about prop entering the final stretch. And Simpson to Pittsburgh could be the pick that defines the entire back half of the draft. Bookmark this page — we update daily through draft night in Pittsburgh.
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