2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds: Fernando Mendoza, Jeremiyah Love Lead the Race
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2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds: Post-Draft Breakdown
Round 1 of the 2026 NFL Draft is in the books, and the race for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year is already taking shape. Fernando Mendoza went #1 overall to the Las Vegas Raiders, and history suggests that's a great position to be in -- starting quarterbacks with full-season volume have won OROY in 5 of the last 10 years. But this is a wide-open class, and the landing spots make this one of the more interesting OROY races at US sports betting apps in recent memory.
Wide receivers have actually won three of the last five OROY awards -- Tetairoa McMillan in 2025, Garrett Wilson in 2022, and Ja'Marr Chase in 2021. The position is no longer a long shot. Here's the full breakdown of 2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds and who has the best shot.
2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
Post-Round 1 odds updated with actual landing spots. Rounds 2–7 continue Apr. 24–25.
The presumptive #1 overall pick slots into a Raiders offense desperate for a franchise QB. History favors day-one starting QBs in OROY voting — Jayden Daniels won it in 2024, C.J. Stroud in 2023, and Justin Herbert in 2020. Mendoza's accuracy and improvisation translate early; volume alone makes him the favorite before a snap is taken.
Love lands at #3 to Arizona — a Cardinals offense in full rebuild mode that desperately needs a franchise running back. Head coach Jonathan Gannon runs a balanced attack and Love immediately becomes the featured back in a backfield with no clear competition. His receiving ability and open-field explosiveness are tailor-made for the Cardinals' spread concepts. With volume projections of 220+ carries and 50+ receptions, Love has a legitimate OROY path if Arizona's line holds up.
Tyson goes #8 to New Orleans — a Saints offense that absolutely needs a WR1 and has the target volume to deliver 100+ looks to a rookie. Tyson is the clear WR1 for the Saints with no established receiver opposite him. His big-play ability and YAC upside in space are perfect for the Saints' spread concepts. WRs have won OROY three times in the last five years — McMillan (2025), Wilson (2022), Chase (2021) — so 1,200+ yards with this volume is a realistic path to the award.
New Orleans has a gaping hole at receiver and a pass-happy offense that spreads the ball. Lemon's YAC ability and separation give him the profile of an immediate volume accumulator. The Saints' desperation for a target hog could mean 100+ looks as a rookie. With WRs winning OROY three times in the last five seasons, the position is no longer a long shot — upside is real if Lemon hits 1,200+ yards.
Tate goes #4 to the Titans — Tennessee's receiver room has needed a legitimate WR1 for years and Tate steps into that role immediately. With a young QB in Ty Simpson also arriving this draft, Tate becomes the primary weapon in an offense being rebuilt from the ground up. His route precision and contested catch ability are exactly what a developing QB leans on. Tennessee will target Tate early and often — 100+ looks is a realistic floor.
Sadiq goes #16 to the Jets — New York grabbed David Bailey at #2, and now adds Sadiq as the receiving TE to complement their defensive haul. The Jets' offense needs weapons around their QB and Sadiq immediately becomes the starting tight end in a scheme that will feature him in the red zone and on third downs. Young QBs historically lean on TEs as security blankets — if the Jets' offense develops, Sadiq could see 70+ targets in a system desperate for reliable intermediate targets.
Price ends Round 1 at #32 to Seattle — the Seahawks' run game has been a priority for years and Price enters as a Day 1 starter in a system built around establishing the run. His versatility as a receiver out of the backfield and his burst in space are tailor-made for what Seattle asks of their feature back. Late Round 1 RBs can absolutely win OROY — the volume path is there if Seattle commits to the run in the way their offensive identity suggests.
Cooper Jr. goes #30 to the Jets — New York now has David Bailey (EDGE, #2), Arvell Reese (LB, #5), and Cooper as a trio of high-upside rookies. The Jets' offense desperately needs a reliable receiver and Cooper steps into an immediate WR1 role with no established competition. His route running and hands give him a 90+ target ceiling if the Jets' QB situation stabilizes. Landing on a team with clear offensive need means early volume even if wins don't follow.
Concepcion goes #24 to Cleveland — a Browns offense in transition that needs a true WR1 to build around. With a young QB situation in Cleveland, Concepcion steps into an immediate starting role with high target volume potential. His size-speed combination and ability to win at all three levels make him the type of receiver a developing QB naturally gravitates toward. If Cleveland's offensive line gives the QB time, Concepcion's ceiling is 1,000+ yards and WR OROY contention.
Covers any offensive skill player who emerges from Rounds 2–7 with an immediate starter role and breakout production. Jonah Coleman slid out of Round 1 and lands somewhere in Round 2 as the top available RB — whichever team gives him a feature role vaults him into this conversation. A surprise WR finding a target vacuum, or a late-round RB who outperforms their slot, is always in play. Injury to any top OROY candidate reshuffles the entire board.
Fernando Mendoza OROY Odds (+250): Why the Raiders QB Is the Heavy Favorite
Mendoza is the overwhelming favorite at +250 for a straightforward reason: he's the (likely) starting quarterback on a team that needs him to play every snap. The Raiders went 3-14 last season, have nothing to protect, and will likely hand Mendoza the offense in Week 1 despite adding Kirk Cousins as a veteran presence.
The historical case is strong. Jayden Daniels won OROY in 2024. C.J. Stroud won it in 2023. Justin Herbert won it in 2020. When a highly drafted Day 1 starting QB gets 17 games of full-season volume, the OROY conversation almost always starts with him. Mendoza needs to stay healthy and post 3,500+ yards and 20+ touchdowns -- both very achievable in Las Vegas under Klint Kubiak.
Jeremiyah Love OROY Odds (+400): Best Running Back Situation in the Class
Love landing at #3 to the Arizona Cardinals is the best possible scenario for a running back hoping to win OROY. Arizona is in full rebuild mode with new head coach Mike LaFleur, they have a clear feature back vacancy, and Love immediately becomes the centerpiece of the backfield. His combination of power, receiving ability, and big-play upside gives him a 220+ carry projection with another 50+ receptions -- overwhelming opportunity for a rookie.
Running backs have won OROY three times in the last 10 years — Saquon Barkley in 2018, Alvin Kamara in 2017, and Todd Gurley in 2015. Love has the kind of volume opportunity those players had. If the Cardinals lean on the run game as they rebuild, Love becomes the consensus pick.
Jordyn Tyson, Makai Lemon, Carnell Tate: Wide Receiver OROY Odds and History
Wide receivers have won OROY three times in the last five seasons -- Tetairoa McMillan (2025), Garrett Wilson (2022), and Ja'Marr Chase (2021). The position is no longer a long shot. The blueprint is consistent: a high-volume situation and the kind of stat line that makes the award impossible to give anyone else.
Jordyn Tyson (+700) goes to New Orleans at Pick #8 alongside veteran Chris Olave, who remains the Saints' established WR1. Tyson steps in as WR2 with legitimate WR1 upside if Olave misses time -- New Orleans' pass-heavy offense creates genuine volume for both.
Makai Lemon (+900) lands with the Eagles at Pick #20, where he'll line up alongside DeVonta Smith after the likely departure of A.J. Brown to New England. Lemon becomes the clear power-slot threat in a Hurts offense that produces targets.
Carnell Tate (+900) goes to Tennessee at Pick #4 as the Titans' WR1 alongside second-year QB Cam Ward -- a more experienced signal-caller who gives Tate a significant advantage over rookies paired with fellow first-year QBs.
McMillan, Wilson, and Chase all cleared 1,100+ receiving yards in their OROY seasons. That's the bar. The path is clearest for whichever of these three lands in the highest-volume role by midseason.
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Kenyon Sadiq, Jadarian Price, and the Value Plays: OROY Odds +1200 and Beyond
Kenyon Sadiq at +1200 goes to the Jets at Pick #16 -- but New York already has Garrett Wilson as an established WR1 and Geno Smith at quarterback, a veteran who won't lean on a rookie TE the way a young QB might. Sadiq's ceiling in this offense is a reliable 60-70 target role, not a feature weapon. Still a legitimate contributor, but the OROY path requires Wilson to have an off year or Sadiq to genuinely emerge as a second option.
Jadarian Price (+1800) lands at #32 to Seattle with an immediate path to carries after Zach Charbonnet's injury — don't sleep on this. If Price steps into 180+ carries in a confirmed run-first system, he's the best late-round OROY value in the class.
Omar Cooper Jr. (+2000) goes to the Jets at Pick #30 but faces the same crowded target share as Sadiq with Wilson and an established depth chart.
KC Concepcion (+2000) lands at #24 with Cleveland in more of a depth role than a feature one -- OROY from this spot requires injury or unexpected breakout production.
2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Predictions: Who Wins It?
The most likely outcome is Fernando Mendoza. The Raiders give him every snap, the historical template is favorable for starting QBs, and there's no veteran on the roster to pull him if he struggles early. Unless Mendoza misses significant time, he finishes with the volume that wins this award.
The upset pick is Jeremiyah Love. If Arizona's line gives him lanes under Mike LaFleur, Love could put up 1,400+ rushing yards and 500+ receiving yards -- a stat line that's impossible to ignore. The best value bet is Carnell Tate at +900: playing with second-year QB Cam Ward rather than a fellow rookie is a significant advantage, and the Titans' WR1 role gives him the volume floor to compete.
2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year: FAQ
Who is most likely to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2026?
Fernando Mendoza is the early favorite at +250. The Indiana quarterback goes #1 overall to the Raiders and will be a Day 1 starter with full offensive control. Starting QBs have won OROY in 5 of the last 10 seasons, and Mendoza's situation mirrors past winners like Jayden Daniels (2024), C.J. Stroud (2023), and Justin Herbert (2020).
Can a wide receiver win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2026?
Absolutely -- WRs have won OROY three times in the last five seasons. Tetairoa McMillan won it in 2025, Garrett Wilson won it in 2022, and Ja'Marr Chase won it in 2021. In 2026, Jordyn Tyson, Makai Lemon, or Carnell Tate could follow that path with the right combination of opportunity and production.
When is NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year announced?
The AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award is announced at NFL Honors, held the night before the Super Bowl in February. The 2027 ceremony will announce the 2026 season winner.
What are the current 2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds?
Post-Round 1: Fernando Mendoza +250, Jeremiyah Love +400, Jordyn Tyson +700, Makai Lemon +900, Carnell Tate +900, Kenyon Sadiq +1200, Jadarian Price +1800, Omar Cooper Jr. +2000, KC Concepcion +2000, The Field +800. These are editorial projections from Bookies.com, not live sportsbook lines.
Editorial odds by Bookies.com. Updated post-Round 1, April 23, 2026. Not available for wagering.
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