NFL Week 11 Best Bets: Mahomes, Chiefs Back On The Clock Against Broncos

By Bill Speros Nov 10th, 2025 9:57 AM EST

November means Thanksgiving, chilly mornings, and Patrick Mahomes reminding everyone why he’s the best player this side of Tom Brady. The Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes visit Denver on Sunday in the marquee event of our Week 11 NFL Best Bets. That game takes the national 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday slot on CBS as Jim Nantz and Tony Romo voice a potential AFC Championship Game preview.

Both the Broncos and Chiefs enter this week off the bye. Kansas City (5-4) came up short two weeks ago in a bruising 28-21 loss at Buffalo. The 8-2 Broncos, meanwhile, join the Patriots in having won 7 straight, and share a piece piece of the best record in the AFC and all of football.

History tells us the 2-game lead Denver holds over Kansas City in the AFC West may well hold up no better than the sun at 6 p.m. on the East Coast. The Chiefs own a nine-peat in the division. The last time the Chiefs did not win the AFC West, Peyton Manning guided the division champion Broncos to a 24-10 victory in Super Bowl 50. The Broncos own a 5-0 record at Empower Field at Mile High this season.

NFL Week 11 Betting Schedule Preview

The week begins on Thursday night as the 8-2 Patriots visit the 2-7 Jets. New England’s 8 victories equal its total from the 2023 and ’24 seasons – combined. The Patriots have not lost since a September outing against Pittsburgh. Their winning streak hit 7 after a Brady-esque 28-23 victory at Tampa Bay. The Jets beat Cleveland Sunday.

The NFL’s international schedule closes this week as the Commanders and Dolphins visit Madrid, Spain. There are 7 games in the early Sunday slot. The Lions face the Eagles Sunday night. Philly comes off its bye and some major acquisitions ahead of the trade deadline. Monday night, Dallas visits Las Vegas. Indianapolis and New Orleans are on the bye.

Week 11 NFL Best Bets: Odds & Picks

Week 11 NFL Best Bets: Game-By-Game Breakdown

Thursday, Nov. 13
New York Jets at New England Patriots, 8:15 p.m. (PRIME)

Buzz: Break up the Jets. Gang Green came off the bye with a 27-20 win over Cleveland. New York’s second-straight victory came after the Jets took a wrecking ball to their roster at the trade deadline. Gang Green has made some green for the bold, going 5-4 ATS despite a 2-7 record SU. The Jets mini-Super Bowl parade comes to an early conclusion Thursday night in New England. The Patriots won their 7^th straight Sunday, as Stef Diggs, Treveyon Henderson, and MVP-favorite Drake Maye sank the Buccaneers’ Pirate Ship in Tampa Bay. This number, however, remains a concern for the Patriots on a short week and coming off a bruising over the Bucs. They’ll be happy with a 17-10 win and a long break.

Best Bet:  Jets +11.5 (-110) Hard Rock Bet via OddsJam  

Sunday, Nov. 16
Washington Commanders vs. Miami Dolphins, 9:30 a.m. (NFL)
at Madrid, Spain

Buzz: The NFL ships a pair of 3-7 teams to Spain. The Dolphins upended the Bills Sunday. The Commanders continued their slide into oblivion and got double-up at home, 44-22, by the Lions. Miami gives points for just the 3^rd time this season, so that clouds a 5-4 record ATS. But the Dolphins have won 2 of 3. Tua Tagovailoa continues to improve. Meanwhile, Washington’s free fall hit 5 straight losses Sunday. And only one of those games have been close.  Vamos, Delfines.

Best Bet:  Dolphins -1.5 (-110) Hard Rock Bet via OddsJam  

Tampa Bay at Buffalo, 1 p.m. (CBS)

Buzz: The Rebound Bowl. The depleted Bucs and demoralized Bills both lost Sunday as favorites. New England (+2.5) upset Tampa Bay 28-23 in front of several thousand Patriots fans at Raymond James Stadium. Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins routed Buffalo 30-13 at Hard Rock Stadium. The Bills were out of their element in warm and humid climes of South Florida. No such concerns this week, given the projected 45-degree temperatures come kickoff. Baker Mayfield needs help. It may not arrive in time for this week’s game. But the Bills have only covered twice in their past 7 games. Tampa’s covered in 4 of 5 road games and bulks up against the run (save for TreVeyon Henderson). Baker cooks away from home in our Week 11 NFL Best Bets.

Best Bet: Buccaneers +5.5 (-110) BetMGM via OddsJam  

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m. (FOX)

Buzz: The Panthers took everyone to the cleaners on Sunday, losing outright at 5-point favorites at New Orleans. The Falcons continue to master the agony of defeat in losing 4 straight. They pushed the Patriots to the brink before losing 24-23 on a missed extra point in Week 9. Sunday, Indy caught Atlanta at the gun with a last-second field goal in Berlin and then won it on OT. The Falcons offer a tough defensive front and could well replicate the Saints, who held Bryce Young to 124 yards passing, and forced him into two turnovers. Meanwhile, Drake London continues to eat on both sides of the Atlantic.

Best Bet: Falcons -3.5 (-110) BetMGM via OddsJam  

LA Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m. (CBS)

Buzz: No team in NFL history will have traveled more miles in one season than the Chargers in 2025 (37,806). This marks their fourth journey to the Eastern Time Zone. (That doesn’t count a season-opening visit to Brazil – which is one hour ahead of the New York and Jacksonville.) And LA failed to cover in the previous three Eastern visits. The Jaguars blew a 19-point lead, and gave up 26 points in the 4^th quarter, during their 36-29 loss at Houston Sunday. The Bolts may feel revved up after a dominant win at home over Pittsburgh Sunday night. But in a season where mediocre teams flip week-to-week (and we’ve got two of them here), look for a reversal of fortune here.

Best Bet: Jaguars +2.5 (-110) BetMGM via OddsJam  

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m. (CBS)

Buzz: The 1-8 Titans managed not to lose during the bye week. The Texans (5-4) rallied from a 19-point deficit for 26 points in the 4^th quarter to declaw the Jaguars 36-29. And they did it back-up with Davis Mills at quarterback. C.J. Stroud suffered a concussion two weeks ago. His status remains uncertain. The Titans need to lose out to keep the No. 1 pick. The Texans oblige this week. This game carries the lowest total of the week at 38.5 points for good season. A 17-10 final beckons in our Week 11 NFL Best Bets.

Best Bet: Under 38.5 Points (-110) BetMGM via OddsJam  

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m. (FOX)

Buzz: The Bears clawed to a 24-20 win and cover (-3.5) against the Giants at home on Sunday. Elsewhere, the Ravens took advantage of J.J. McCarthy’s inexperience, forcing him into 2 interceptions in Minnesota’s 27-19 home loss Sunday. The good news for Minnesota this week is that Caleb Williams is not Lamar Jackson. Unfortunately, for Chicago, Caleb Williams is not Lamar Jackson, either. But the Bears wrecked Giants rookie QB Jaxson Dart Sunday. Dennis Allen’s defense poses a similar obstacle to basically-a-rookie McCarthy this week.  

Best Bet: Under 46.5 Points (-110) BetMGM via OddsJam  

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m. (CBS)

Buzz. The saga of “Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Rodgers” swings back to Pittsburgh. Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers suffered a beating at the hands of the Chargers in LA Sunday night. But the Bengals (33.3 PPG) offer up the worst defense in the NFL, and possibly the MAC and Big Ten. The declawed Orange and Black defense offers an opportunity for Rodgers show a sliver of his Hall of Fame form. Even after Sunday night’s loss, the Steelers still lead the AFC North. They get back on track this week.

Best Bet: Steelers -5.5 (-110) FanDuel via OddsJam  

Green Bay Packers at New York Giants, 1 p.m. (FOX)

Buzz: Big Blue’s post-Cam-Skattebo-injury/catastrophic-loss-to-Denver slide continues. The G-Men (2-8) dropped their 4^th straight Sunday. This time, they blew a 20-10 lead at Chicago in 24-20 loss. The Giants have allowed 32.25 points per game during their slide. It’s not going to get any better this week, as Jordan Love and the Packers (5-2-1) come off a Monday night game against Philly. Green Bay’s offense stretches the MetLife field all the way to Manhattan this week.

Best Bet: Packers -7.5 (-110) Fliff via OddsJam  

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals, 4:05 p.m. (FOX)

Buzz: The San Francisco 49ers (6-4) Sunday received a reminder of just how far they’ve fallen in the NFC West. The Rams rolled into Santa Clara and dropped 42 points on their depleted defense in a 16-point victory. More impressively, LA held CMC to just 30 yards on 12 carries. SF QB Mac Jones threw for 319 yards and 3 TDs, but the bulk came in garbage time. The Cardinals (3-6), meanwhile, got doubled up at home by the Seattle Seahawks 44-22. They trailed 38-7 at the half. In this battle of stinkers, the 49ers bring the air freshener and re-establish their running game to grab the win and cover in our Week 11 NFL Best Bets.

Best Bet: 49ers -2.5 (-110) BetMGM via OddsJam  

Seattle Seahawks at LA Rams, 4:05 p.m. (FOX)

Buzz: FOX lacks a national doubleheader this week and a 4:25 p.m. slot. But this NFC West matchup of 7-2 teams both SU and ATS represents its offering of the day. Sam Darnold and Matt Stafford expect to light up the scoreboard in this SoFi Stadium track meet. Which team has the best chance to stop its opponent? Well, the Rams rank 2^nd in the NFL, allowing just 17 PPG. The Seahawks rank 4^th at 19.1 PPG. But Seattle is 4-0 SU on the road. Last team with the ball wins.

Best Bet: Seahawks +2.5 (-110) BetMGM via OddsJam  

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns, 4:05 p.m. (CBS)

Buzz: The Ravens and Lamar Jackson have risen from the bowels of the AFC North just in time to make a late-season playoff run. The Browns lost to the Jets on Sunday. Lost. To. The. Jets. Cleveland can still make a run at the No. 1 overall draft pick but needs to lose out. Jackson plays keep-away from Myles Garrett this week, and the Ravens grab a plus-score cover. Think 21-10.

Best Bet: Ravens -8.5 (-110) BetMGM via OddsJam  

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos, 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

Buzz: The last time the Kansas City Chiefs failed to win the AFC West came some 10 years ago, when Peyton Manning and Von Miller (mostly Miller) led the Broncos to the division title and a Super Bowl 50 victory. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs hit the Mile High City coming off the bye, and a bruising loss at Buffalo. KC trails Denver by 2 games in the AFC West. A loss here puts KC’s streak of 9 straight AFC West titles in jeopardy. (The teams meet again on Christmas night.) Oddsmakers know Mahomes’ history all too well, installing him and his Chiefs as 3.5-point favorites on the road. Denver barely beat Las Vegas Thursday 10-7 but has lost 5 straight to AFC West foes at underdogs. KC’s biggest challenge comes in trying to establish the run (with anyone not named Mahomes). Meanwhile, expect Steve Spagnuolo to dial up plenty for wizardry to stymie Denver QB Bo Nix. The Chiefs this season go as far as their defense takes them. This week, that means another close-call victory. But be wary of the hook here. We are.

Best Bet: Broncos +3.5 (-110) DraftKings via OddsJam  

Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles, 8:20 p.m. (NBC)

Buzz: Speaking of potential conference championship matchups, we’ve got one here in the NFC on Sunday night. The Lions (6-3) saunter into Lincoln Financial Field. The Lions roared in Week 10 with a 44-22 win at Washington. The Eagles loaded up on defense at the trade deadline. They played at Green Bay Monday night. The edge here goes to Philly, which gets the Lions outdoors at night on the road. And has a week of seasoning with its reloaded defense

Best Bet: Eagles ML (-120) Hard Rock Bet via OddsJam  

Monday, Nov. 17
Dallas Cowboys at Las Vegas Raiders, 8:15 p.m. (ABC)

Buzz: Jerry Jones pushed all his chips into the middle of the table at the trade deadline. He shored up his defense, picking up DT Quinnen Williams from the Jets and LB Logan Wilson from the Bengals. We then learned that Jones had inserted a “poison pill” into the deal that sent Micah Parsons from Green Bay. Jones decreed that if Green Bay dealt Parsons, or Kenny Clark, to any NFC East team, the Packers would subsequently owe Dallas its 2028 first-round pick. Still, at 3-5-1, the Cowboys remain deep below the playoff waterline in the NFC. This total appears high, even though Dallas has eclipsed the over in 5 of their past 6 games. The Raiders dropped 7 of their past 8 games but have covered in 3 of their past 4. The Cowboys take their show on the road this week, load up Reliant Stadium with silver-and-blue Cowboys fans, and steal a road win and cover.

Best Bet: Cowboys -3 (-115) Hard Rock Bet via OddsJam  

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