NFL Week 14 Betting Takeaways: Stay Away From Home Teams
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The idea that the home team has a built-in advantage took another big hit in Week 14 of the NFL season — at least in regard to wagering.
Home teams are 109-97-1 straight-up, a 52.9% win rate, after going 8-7 in Week 14 heading into Monday night. But make the home team lay a few points, and the results flip and then some. Against the spread, those same home teams went 3-10-3 ATS in Week 14. On the season, homers are a terrible 83-116-6, a win rate of just 41.3%.
Being favored at home has proven to mean even less. Home favorites went 1-6-2 ATS in Week 14 and are now 48-77-5 on the season. That’s a win rate of just 38.4%. The only home favorite to cover on Sunday — the Atlanta Falcons, who were -3.5 against the Carolina Panthers and rolled 40-20. Expecting the unexpected this NFL season has paid off.
Here’s a look back at Week 14 and a quick look ahead to Week 15:
Streaks Live On …
Vikings Hammer On
The Vikings build a 20-0 lead before the Lions scored a TD late in a 20-7 decision. That didn’t deter those who had Minnesota -12.5, the fifth time in a row the Vikings had covered vs. the Lions. The Under has now hit in seven home games in a row against Detroit.
Kirk Cousins and Co. have also now won nine of their last 10 at home, and RB Dalvin Cook continued his hot streak, scoring in five of the last six games against the NFC.
Jets Hang On
The Jets beat the Dolphins 22-21 on a last-second field goal by Sam Ficken, pushing Miami to its eighth loss in a row against teams with losing records.
For the sixth-straight time, the underdog covered in a Jets game. And for the fifth consecutive game, the Under hit in a Jets road game against an AFC opponent.
The Cardinals dropped their sixth straight in a 23-17 loss to the Steelers. That wasn’t the only streak that continued. It was the fifth road game in a row against NFC teams that Pittsburgh covered, and the 11th time in 12 Steelers road games overall that finished Under.
… And Streaks End
Atlanta has been a big disappointment this season, but that made Sunday’s 40-20 rout of the Panthers more surprising. The Falcons (-3.5) had failed to cover in four in a row when favored, and the Under had hit in four straight after losing the prior game. The Falcons’ defense stopped Christian McCaffrey from scoring, just the third time in 11 games he’d been held out of the end zone.
The Chargers not just covered at -3 against the Jaguars, they rolled to a 45-10 victory. Previously, L.A. had lost six of its last seven games straight-up when favored. The Chargers were also on an 0-6 slide ATS against the AFC. Not just that, the Under had hit in 16 of their last 20 games played in December, but they cleared the total (O/U 42.5) by themselves.
Everything that was supposed to happen based on trends Sunday night, didn’t. The Seahawks not only had their six-game road winning streak snapped, the 26-12 loss to the Rams also snapped a streak of six-straight spread covers on Sunday Night Football (Seattle was +1 at kickoff). The Over had hit in four straight between these teams but didn’t come very close this time.
Player streaks ended as well as Chris Carson failed to score for the first time in seven primetime games, Tyler Lockett was blanked for the first time in four games against the Rams and Russell Wilson had scored at least three TDs in three-straight games against L.A. Seattle’s offense didn’t get into the end zone at all.
The @RamsNFL held the Seahawks without an offensive touchdown in their 28-12 #SNF win.— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) December 9, 2019
It was the first time Seattle has failed to score an offensive TD in a game since Week 1, 2017 — 819 days ago.
And it gave the Rams their first ever primetime win over Russell Wilson.
Best Pick Of Week 14
Broncos (+9.5) over Texans
The Texans were rightfully getting a lot of points, but everything pushed me to back Drew Lock and the Broncos. Denver had the NFL’s fifth-best pass defense coming in and Lock had the zip to have success against Houston’s porous pass D. The Broncos led 31-3 at halftime, their defense picked off two Deshaun Watson passes and returned a Watson fumble for a TD and Lock went off for 309 yards and three TDs.
Worst Pick Of Week 14
Cowboys (-3) over Bears
The Cowboys were just one of three teams to rank in the top 10 in total offense and total defense, but came into Thursday night at just 6-6. Well, now they’re 6-7 after the defense got dismantled by Mitchell Trubisky and the offense was a bust until the fourth quarter when the game was essentially over. There’s too much talent on the Big D roster to be losing games in this fashion.
A Quick Look Ahead
Lines change throughout the week. Here are three to consider for Week 15 before they move:
Rams (+2) at Cowboys
The Rams are starting to play to their potential while the Cowboys are heading in the wrong direction L.A. has covered the spread in five of its six road games and the banged-up Cowboys may put another nail in the Jason Garrett era here.
Bills (+2) at Steelers
The Steelers have escaped with three wins in a row, but the offense has averaged just 16.5 ppg the last four weeks and the victories came against the Cardinals, Bengals and Browns. The Bills will make life a lot tougher for Devlin Hodges. Buffalo is 5-0-1 ATS on the road.
Broncos (+11.5) at Chiefs
Lock was the QB the Broncos needed to go along with a solid run game and decent defense. The road team has covered the last four meetings between these AFC West rivals.