NFL Week 17 Best Bets: NFL Lands On Naughty List With Christmas Day Clunkers
The NFL, Netflix, and Prime Video land on Santa’s naughty list to kick off our NFL Week 17 Best Bets. The Shield put 3 games under the Christmas Day tree this year, and you can bet on these games at the best sports betting sites. Of the 6 teams playing Thursday, only 2 remain eligible for the playoffs. Lumps of coal for all.
Dr. Seuss may have been discussing this year’s NFL Christmas offerings when he noted that The Grinch was best described in 3 words: “Stink. Stank. Stunk.”
Dallas visits Washington in the first game of the day. Both are on to 2026. The second game offers the Lions teetering on the brink of elimination They visit Minnesota, which was eliminated Sunday. In the nightcap on Amazon Prime, the Broncos aim to bounce back from their stunning home loss to Jacksonville. Denver plays host to Kansas City, which was eliminated in Week 15.
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Saturday, Sunday Offer Some Late Stocking Stuffers
Conversely, both NFL Saturday games this week carry plenty of playoff intrigue. Think of the feeling that you get when you return something, and the good stuff is still on sale after Christmas. Both Houston and the LA Chargers enter their game just one out of first place in their respective divisions. Meanwhile, the Ravens visit Green Bay in must-win mode after their shattering loss to New England Sunday night
That leaves some pretty good leftovers, not to mention and Aunt Kathy’s fruitcake, on the Sunday menu. Jacksonville looks to potentially clinch the AFC South at Indy. Seattle gets tested in the Eastern Time Zone in Charlotte. The national game on FOX sends Tom Brady back to Buffalo to call the Bills-Eagles game. And Sunday night, we get what may well be a Wild Card Round playoff preview between the Bears and 49ers at Levi’s Stadium.
The Rams visit Atlanta Monday night in game that should be flexed to July.
You can wager responsibly on each game using the best sports betting apps.
Week 17 NFL Best Bets – Game-By-Game Previews & Analysis
Thursday, Dec. 25
Dallas Cowboys (6-8-1) at Washington Commanders (4-11)
1 p.m (Netflix)
Buzz: Dr. Seuss had this one nailed. “Stink. Stank. Stunk.” Netflix paid 500 billion-zillion-gazillion dollars to air its 2 Christmas Day games. But no one, not even the suits at Park Avenue, can guarantee a compelling matchup on Dec. 25 when the schedule comes out in May. Both teams are mathematically on to 2026. No one wants to be here on Christmas Day. Not Fans. Players. Media. The Netflix Crew. Not even Snoop Dogg’s halftime show gets your to hit the clicker here. The Commanders entered the season with the oldest roster in the NFL. And it showed as the season progressed. Expect a complete overhaul this offseason. Jerry Jones and the Cowboys mark 30 years without a Super Bowl victory- on January 28.
Best Bet: Under 50.5 Points (-105) at BetMGM via OddsJam
Detroit Lions (8-7) at Minnesota Vikings (7-8)
4:30 p.m. (Netflix)
Buzz: The Christmas clunkers continue with an Old School Black-&-Blue Division showdown featuring two also-rans. The Vikings were ejected from the playoff race in Week 16. The decision to go with J.J. McCarthy over Sam Darnold sent the Vikings to Valhalla in 2025. McCarthy showed some glimpses of hope as the season progressed. The Lions remain forever haunted by Aaron Rodgers (see their 29-24 loss to Pittsburgh in Week 16). Dan Campbell & Co. figure it out this week and pull away in the 2nf half. Jared Goff gets the edge in QBs over Max “You’ll shoot your eye out, kid.” Brosmer.
Best Bet: Lions -5.5 (-105) at BetMGM via OddsJam
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Denver Broncos (12-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-9)
8:15 p.m. (Amazon Prime)
Buzz: The bad Christmas sweater game. Gone is the Bo Nix-Patrick Mahomes matchup. Instead, it’s Nix vs. Chris Oladokun. The Chiefs tapped out Sunday in an embarrassing 26-9 loss to the Titans. The win may have cost the Titans their shot at the No. 1 overall pick. It marked the Chiefs first game since Dec. 28, 2014, in which they were not in playoff/championship contention. It showed. Expect a sparse Christmas night crowd at Arrowhead.
The Broncos got thrown off their horse at home in a 34-20 loss to the Jaguars in Week 16. Denver does clinch home field in the AFC if it wins out. Nix gets a playoff tune up this week against the Chiefs’ once-fierce defense. Meanwhile, expect the Broncos to keep Mahomes, Gardner Minshew Oladokun and the home team from scoring 20 points. This spread, however, doesn’t fit a Denver team that’s just 6-8-1 ATS. And in a contest that may well fall under its projected total of 37.5 points in our NFL Week 17 Best Bets.
Best Bet: Chiefs +13.5 (-110) at FanDuel via OddsJam
Saturday, Dec. 27
Houston Texans (10-5) at Los Angeles Chargers (11-4)
4:30 p.m. (NFL Network)
Buzz: Neither Saturday game airs on conventional TV. The opener shows exclusively on NFL Network. The Texans and Chargers are both one game back in their respective divisions. While each team has all but clinched a playoff berth, this game has must-win stamped on it if either hopes to win their division. The Texans enter this game on a heater, having won 7 straight. And they’ve covered in 4 of 5 against teams with a winning record. Two of the NFL’s toughest defenses take center stage. Houston’s best-in-the-NFL defensive unit (16.6 PP & 272.3 YPG) can keep Justin Herbert in check. But can the Texans generate enough offense to snag a road win here? Yes. But barely.
Best Bet: Texas +1.5 (-115) at DraftKings via OddsJam
Baltimore Ravens (7-8) at Green Bay Packers (9-5-1)
8 p.m. (Peacock)
Buzz: NBC ruffles America's feathers by sticking this on Peacock. You get to pay extra to watch an QB matchup between Snoop Huntley and Malik Willis. The Packers and Ravens lost their starting QBs in Week 16 losses. Jordan Love exited with a concussion Saturday. Green Bay subsequently collapsed in the final 2 minutes and OT before losing 22-16 to the Bears. Lamar Jackson suffered a back injury Sunday night. Baltimore’s defense subsequently collapsed during the 4th quarter in a 28-24 home loss to New England Sunday night. The Ravens need a win here, plus lots of help, to reach the postseason. They carry an NFL-worst 5-10 record ATS. The Packers, meanwhile, clinch a playoff berth with a victory. They get their Christmas present 2 days late in our NFL Week 17 Best Bets.
Best Bet: Packers ML (-126) at DraftKings via OddsJam
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Sunday, Dec. 28
Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4) at Indianapolis Colts (8-6)
1 p.m. (FOX)
Buzz: The Jaguars prowled into Denver in Week 16 and clawed through the Broncos’ defense to snag a 34-20 victory. The Colts began their current slide before Daniel Jones’ injury. (They played host to San Francisco Monday night.) The Colts remain alive for a playoff spot. The Jaguars, meanwhile, hold a slim chance to grab the No. 1 seed in the AFC. They beat the Colts 36-19 at home just 3 weeks ago. Jacksonville owns a 10-5 record ATS, a 5-2 record on the road, has won 7 straight as the favorite, and has covered in 6 straight. Jacksonville also owns the NFL’s best defense against the run. It held Jonathan Taylor to 74 yards on 21 carries in their earlier game.
Best Bet: Jaguars -6.5 (-110) at BetMGM via OddsJam
Arizona Cardinals (3-12) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-10)
1 p.m. (FOX)
Buzz: The Cardinals entered full-tailspin mode with their 7th straight defeat in Week 16. It came in non-effort 26-19 aviary-on-aviary loss to the Falcons. This time, felines reign in Cincinnati. While the Bengals win this, we’re not so comfortable with a 7-point line. Cincy has failed to cover in 5 straight at home against NFC opponents. A mild-for-Ohio winter day eliminates weather as a factor here. But we’re not sure how these teams will get to 53.5 points. Maybe they play an extra 4 quarters?
Best Bet: Under 53.5 Points (-108) at DraftKings via OddsJam
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6) at Cleveland Browns (3-12)
1 p.m. (CBS)
Buzz: When Michael Strahan broke Mark Gastineau’s single-season sack record in 2001, Green Bay QB Brett Favre took a dive to make it happen. Will history repeat itself this week with former Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers accommodating Myles Garrett? In Week 16, Garrett recorded a half-sack in Cleveland’s loss to the Bills. He now owns 22 this season, just a half-sack behind the record of 22.5 shared by J.J. Watt and Strahan. Watt now works as an in-game analyst for CBS. One should expect him and Ian Eagle to be on the call here.
Pittsburgh beat Cleveland 23-9 in Week 6. This game carries the lowest NFL total of the season at 34.5 points. Therefore, we’re going to treat that market like Chernobyl and stay very far away. A rain-snow mix awaits, with winds around 17 MPH. Look for lots of Jaylen Warren. And hold your breath when each field goal attempt.
Best Bet: Steelers -4.5 (-108) at FanDuel via OddsJam
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New Orleans Saints (5-10) at Tennessee Titans (3-12)
1 p.m. (CBS)
Buzz: The Titans desperately need a bounce-back loss to remain alive for the No. 1 draft pick. They picked apart remnants of the Chiefs in Week 16. New Orleans scored an upset road win at Tampa Bay 3 weeks ago. Rainy and unseasonably warm conditions await in Nashville. A perfect menu for one of the most unwatchable games of the season.
Best Bet: Saints -2.5 (-114) at Caesars Sportsbook via OddsJam
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8) at Miami Dolphins (6-9)
1 p.m. (FOX)
Buzz: The Battle Of Florida - Consolation Game comes with a must-win storyline for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa Bay fell to 2nd place in the NFC South after its loss to Carolina in Week 16. Those teams meet again next week. But the Bucs need to win here to make the season finale relevant. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are out of the playoff picture. Chatter has surfaced about dismantling their roster in 2026. Baker Mayfield balls out here against a team that’s quit on this season.
Best Bet: Buccaneers -4.5 (-110) at Hard Rock Bet via OddsJam
Seattle Seahawks (12-3) at Carolina Panthers (8-7)
1 p.m. (CBS)
Buzz: A battle of NFC divisional leaders shares the 1 p.m. spotlight this week. The Seahawks scored a win for the ages Thursday night over the LA Rams. Sam Darnold outdueled Matthew Stafford 38-37 in an OT instant classic. The Panthers, meanwhile, outlasted the Bucs Sunday 23-20 in another NFC South rock fight, and sunk their claws into first place. Carolina can clinch the NFC South with a win here, and a Tampa Bay loss in Miami. The Seahawks own an NFC-best 6-1 road record, are 10-5 ATS, and has covered in 4 of 5 Eastern Time Zone games this season. Still, take the point here, especially given the size of this number. Carolina has covered in 9 straight getting points against NFC opponents. They make it 10 here.
Best Bet: Panthers +7.5 (-115) at DraftKings via OddsJam
New England Patriots (12-3) at New York Jets (3-12)
1 p.m. (FOX)
Buzz: The Patriots own a share of the best record in the AFC, boast an MVP-caliber QB, are coached by a defensive mastermind, and have Josh McDaniels as their offensive coordinator. Here’s hoping the rest of the NFL enjoyed its reprieve. Patriots Nation turns MetLife into Gillette South as the Patriots clinch another AFC East title.
Meanwhile, green-clad, paper-bag heads dot the stadium and boo the Jets lustfully throughout their final home game of the season. The Mike Vrabel-led Patriots don’t do trap games. New England beat New York 27-14 earlier this season in Foxboro. The Jets held for a backdoor cover on the 13.5-point spread. The Patriots have won 8 straight as favorites and had covered in 7 straight as favorites before their game earlier this season. Historically, the Patriots struggle offensively at MetLife. Throw in a rainy, chilly day, and the real possibility the Jets don’t break double-digits, and this is a perfect recipe for the under.
Best Bet: Under 43.5 Points (-110) at DraftKings via OddsJam
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New York Giants (2-13) at Las Vegas Raiders (2-13)
4:05 p.m. (CBS)
Buzz: Giants fans celebrate another Big Blue Christmas this season. The loser of this game grabs the inside track for the No. 1 overall draft pick. Talk of Bill Belichick returning to the Giants, this time as head coach, next season continues. Las Vegas, meanwhile, has sandwiched covers against Denver and Houston around a 31-0 loss to Philly. The Raiders came one pick-six away from beating Houston outright Sunday. Las Vegas, led by standout rookie RB Ashton Jeanty and a stingy defense, win this one outright at home.
Best Bet: Raiders ML (+102) at DraftKings via OddsJam
Philadelphia Eagles (10-5) at Buffalo Bills (11-4)
4:25 p.m. (FOX)
Buzz: Tom Brady makes his final appearance at Highmark Stadium - in the booth for FOX. The Eagles clinched the NFC East in Week 16. They’re all-but locked into the No. 3 seed in the NFC. The Bills’ run of 5 straight AFC East championships may well be over before this one begins. The Patriots clinch the division with a win over the N.Y. Jets in the 1 p.m. Sunday slot. Still, the Bills need to win here to keep pace in the Wild Card race. Josh Allen & Co. are 6-1 at home this season and have won 5 straight outright. Plus, they cover against good teams at home. They’ve covered in their past 10 home games against teams with a winning record, not named the Patriots. Allen gets it done. Again.
Best Bet: Bills -2.5 (-110) at Hard Rock Bet via OddsJam
Chicago Bears (11-4) at San Francisco 49ers (10-4)
8:25 p.m. (NBC/Peacock)
Buzz: The Bears pulled off a comeback for the ages Saturday in beating the Packers 22-16 in OT after trailing 16-6 with 2 minutes left to play. Green Bay had a 99.9% chance of winning before Cario Santos kicked a field goal with 1:59 to play that cut the lead to 16-9. The Bears recovered an onside kick. And then scored 2 unanswered TDs, including a 46-yard bomb from Caleb Williams to DJ Moore in OT. (The 49ers played host to Indianapolis Monday night.) The Bears have only beaten one team over .500 at-the-time on the road this season. This game ranks as a playoff precursor, given that these teams could well meet in the postseason.
Best Bet: Bears +3 (-120) at BetMGM via OddsJam
Monday, Dec. 29
Los Angeles Rams (11-4) at Atlanta Falcons (6-9)
8:15 p.m. (ESPN)
Buzz: The final NFL game of 2025 will soon be forgotten thanks to the College Football Playoff quarterfinals later in the week. The Rams enter Atlanta needing a win to keep pace with Seattle in the NFC West. The Falcons have ridden Kirk Cousins to 2-straight wins. Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts remain potent offensive options. But the Falcons won’t be able maintain altitude against the Rams’ all-universe offense. LA amassed 581 total yards without a turnover in its stunning 38-27 Week 16 OT loss at Seattle. The Rams recover this week with a road win after a mini-bye. The Rams stack points on the road against NFC teams. They’ve gone over the total in that situation 6 straight times. The Rams have won 11 straight outright after a loss, and covered in 7 straight against teams with a losing record. Make it eight here.
Best Bet: Rams -8 (-110) at Hard Rock Bet via OddsJam
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