A one-year delay hasn’t dampened any enthusiasm for the 2021 Summer Olympics. That flame still burns brightly as the best athletes in the world are hoping to gather July 23-August 8 and light the Olympic Torch in Tokyo.

The Games were originally supposed to take place in the summer of 2020 and were ultimately postponed due to serious health and logistical issues stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic. Now the International Olympic Committee believes it has the proper protocols in place as Tokyo prepares to host the Summer Games for the second time with the July 23 Opening Ceremony kicking off the quest for gold. Are they right? With ongoing concerns about new coronavirus variants, could we be facing another postponement?

Bookies.com used a variety of historical data and other variables to predict if the Tokyo Olympics will happen and, if they do take place, which countries will lead in medals. Swaying the medals table odds is that Russia has been banned for the next two Olympics and any world championship event for the next two years by the World Anti-Doping Agency.

NOTE: There are currently no legal odds to bet on Olympics at legal US sports betting sites

Will the Tokyo Olympics Be Cancelled?

METHODOLOGY: The Olympic odds model is built using COVID-19 related case data, country level travel policies, polling numbers and athlete availability using logistic regression. This model is using “time-sensitive” data/averages. More recent observations (i.e., COVID-19 cases, travel policies) in April 2021 have a stronger effect in the model than data points from the past winter and early spring.

Which Country Will Lead Way If Tokyo Games Are Held?

It looks like Team USA will be all systems go for the Games in Tokyo assuming the event goes on, with no foreseeable travel issues relative to the rest of the world. Uniforms for the Opening and Closing Ceremonies have already been unveiled, and star-studded teams such as U.S. Women’s Soccer and U.S. Men’s Basketball are gearing up for Tokyo.

The U.S. leads the all-time Summer Olympics medal count with 2,523 – Russia is next at 1,010 and Great Britain third at 851. The U.S. also leads the gold medal count by a wide margin with 1,022 all-time. The U.S. Women’s Soccer Team has won gold in three of the last four Games, while the U.S. Men’s Basketball team has won three straight and six of the last seven overall.

Individual Russian athletes that compete will be barred from using their nation’s flag and anthem. So, Russia is not listed in the total medal or gold medal odds for the 2021 Tokyo Olympics.

METHODOLOGY: The odds models are calculated by assessing probability and then converting those probabilities into fractional odds. The medal model probability is using historical and “time-sensitive” variables in that more recent data are weighted higher than older data.

For example, each country’s medal and performance metrics from the 2018 World Championships and 2016 Olympics is weighted more than the 2012 Olympics and 2014 World Championships. Further, each country’s COVID-19 cases and travel policies are given more weight in April than in March and February.