Bills vs. Falcons Odds, Best Bets & Player Props For MNF NFL Week 6

By Adam Thompson Oct 13th, 2025 1:11 PM EDT

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills look to bounce back from their first loss of the season when they travel south to face Bijan Robinson and the Atlanta Falcons in a Week 6 Monday Night Football showdown.

The Bills (4-1) dropped a 23-20 decision last Sunday to the Patriots, the first time the team hadn’t scored at least 30 points. They look to get back on track against the Falcons (2-2), who scored 34 of their own in their last game, a win over the Commanders.

The latest Bills vs. Falcons NFL Odds have road-side Buffalo favored by 4.5 points at best sports betting sites. The Over/Under is set at 49.5 points

Bookies.com veteran NFL handicapper Adam Thompson – who has hit on a whopping 65.8% of his NFL picks so far this season- reveals his plays for this MNF matchup.

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Bills vs. Falcons Betting Predictions

Bills vs. Falcons Point Spread

The Falcons are a modest 2-2, but one loss came in a last-second Baker Mayfield rally, the other was a wild anomaly vs. the Panthers. Atlanta’s pass defense ranks No. 1 in fewest yards and yards per attempt. The offense put up 34 on the Commanders in its last game.

Buffalo is coming off a home loss to the Patriots, and the prior three games faced the Jets, Dolphins, and Saints – perhaps the three worst teams in the NFL. Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier can run here and, at worst, keep the game close. Back the Falcons to cover the spread at home.

Bills vs. Falcons Over/Under

The Under has hit in three of four Falcons games this season because the pass defense is the best in the league and they have two RBs that would hand off to every play if possible.

The Bills go over because they score, but James Cook’s emergence, paired with Josh Allen’s legs, gives Buffalo a formidable run attack. The Under hit in their last game and missed by two points in the two games prior. Back the Under as a secondary play for MNF.

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Bills vs. Falcons Same Game Parlay

1. Josh Allen, Over 33.5 Rush Yards: Allen has gained 45-plus yards in three of the Bills last four games. The Falcons have had issues containing scrambles, and with Atlanta’s elite pass defense, Allen is going to take off a few times.

2. Michael Penix Jr., Over 7.5 Rush Yards: Penix isn’t the rusher Allen is, but he’s had at least nine yards in half of the Falcons’ games. More important, the Bills rank dead-last in rush yards allowed to QBs (42.2) and at 8.4 yards per attempt. Every QB they’ve faced has gained at least 10 yards.

3. Falcons +4.5: Lean on the ground game, chew up the clock, and keep Josh Allen’s receiving at bay. At home, which equates to a close game, and a nice cover.

Same Game Parlay Odds: +568

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