Sony Open 2026: PGA Tour Picks and Leans For Hawaii Season Opener

By Bookies.com Staff

Jan 13th, 2026 10:49 AM EST

(USATODAY)

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After a longer than typical "off-season" without The Sentry, the PGA Tour year officially tees off this week with the Sony Open at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, with Canadian Nick Taylor defending.

This golf betting season, Bookies.com will provide analysis from a variety of experts across the space, including leans on first round leaders, longshots, top 20s, matchups and much more.

What makes The Sony unique? Besides the beautiful Honolulu landscape, the long-running event has seen victories from bold-face names like Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama and Cam Smith in the last decade. But it's also no stranger to a longshot winner (looking at you, 2016 Fabian Gomez).

So start your 2026 golf card off right with insight from a variety of sources below before you head to your favorite U.S. sports betting app.

What To Know About Waialae Country Club

Waialae has hosted the Sony Open since 1965, making it one of the longest-running courses on the PGA Tour schedule and traditionally the first true "full field" event of the season. The course is relatively short for modern pro standards at 7,020–7,044 yards from championship tees. (Shorter hitters like Smith, Matt Kuchar, Russell Henley and Kevin Na have claimed wins here).

Designed by Seth Raynor in 1927 with renovations since, the course features minimal elevation change and frequent ocean breezes despite the tree-line fairways, which place an emphasis on accuracy over length off the tee.

Bermuda greens with traditionally difficult pin locations that place a heavy emphasis on elite iron play.

Now enough course talk, let's pick some winners.

Sony Open Winner Picks

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - J.J. Spaun +1800

In his first tournament last season, Spaun sent a message that he was a new golfer. He had missed the cut in five of his first seven Sony Opens, but wound up tied for third just one shot out of a playoff. In retrospect, it made sense.

On a Waialae course that requires just about every skill set, Spaun is a great fit. The fact that he somehow is the No. 3 betting choice and you can get 20-1 odds on DraftKings makes this play even more enticing.

Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Hideki Matsuyama +1700

Matsuyama seems to play his best golf early in the year; five of his 11 PGA Tour victories have come in either January or February. He's a past champion at the Sony Open (2022) and won last year's season-opening tournament at The Sentry. Hasn't missed a cut since the PGA Championship, and did I mention he won the Hero World Challenge in his last start?.

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Ben Griffin +1700

Rory McIlroy completing the career Grand Slam and Scottie Scheffler winning everything else were rightfully the biggest golf stories of 2025. But I still think fans might be underestimating the leap Ben Griffin took last season. Sportsbooks are not. Griffin is a deserving favorite in the field this week behind only Russell Henley at DraftKings.

Last we saw him he fired a casual Sunday 63 to win the World Wide Technology Championship in the fall. Shot an opening round 65 at Waialae last year before the putter took the weekend off. I'll go chalk to start the year with BG.

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Aaron Rai +3500

The 30 year old enters the 2026 season looking for his 2nd win on the PGA Tour. Coming off a win on the DP World Tour in November, Rai has moved up to 23rd in world rankings and showed solid form at the end of 2025. Based on key metrics of this track that I’m looking for, Rai sits at 4th in this field in driving accuracy and 7th in approach.

David Rumsey, Front Office Sports - Maverick McNealy +2500

The 30-year-old Stanford alum is looking for his second PGA Tour victory, and first at a “big boy” tournament—McNealy’s lone win came at the 2024 RSM Classic, an annual fall PGA Tour event. Like many others in the field, McNealy, ranked No. 22 in the world, will be shaking off some competitive rust; he last teed it up in Utah in October (don’t mind his missed cut at Black Desert Resort). McNealy narrowly missed out on a captain’s pick for Keegan Bradley’s Ryder Cup squad in September after finishing 23rd in the final 2025 FedExCup standings. He had five top 5 finishes last season, so it won’t surprise anyone to see him lift the trophy this weekend at Waialae Country Club.

All odds verified on Jan. 13

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Sony Open Top 20 Picks

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Rico Hoey +195

If you take away putting, Hoey might be the best golfer in this field. That's how good his tee-to-green game is. Last season, he ranked third on Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee and eighth in SG: Approach. And, also, um, 180th in putting. Ouch. That type of golfer has trouble contending but can be a top-20 and top-25 machine. Hoey had 12 top-25s last year, including in his final five starts.

Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Russell Henley -155

Russell Henley, the tournament betting favorite, feels like a lock. He's got a win here, finished T10 last year and has two other top 5s in the last five years. He feasts on smaller ballparks like this one.  

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Jordan Smith +300

A few of the DP World Tour grads always make a little noise in Q1. Smith is a PGAT rookie but at age 33, I like his compartment for life on tour. And Waialae is a gentle handshake for his driving accuracy and excellent approach play.

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Keegan Bradley +115

No need to go completely off the board here in our first event. Bradley is arriving at Waialae Country Club off the back of one of his best seasons (outside of the Ryder Cup Captaincy) and his past success here sells me on this bet. In the last 6 tournaments here, Bradley has 4 Top 12s.

David Rumsey, Front Office Sports - Aaron Rai +175

The two-gloved bandit is quietly ranked No. 23 in the world, and it’s only been two months since he won the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship at the tail end of the 2025 DP World Tour schedule. He finished T15 at The Sentry last year but skipped the Sony Open, and will be looking for a similar result as he returns to the Hawaiian swing.

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First Round Leader Bets

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Harry Hall +5000

You'll be shocked to learn that the first-round scoring leader on Tour last year was Scottie Scheffler. But you'll really be shocked to learn that the next three guys were Garrick Higgo, Hall and Keith Mitchell. The Englishman finished 10th here last year after an opening 64. Elite putting can do that. Hall ranked third on Tour last season in SG: Putting.

Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Collin Morikawa +3500

Morikawa is primed for a bounce-back year. Was FRL here in his PGA Tour debut as a pro back in 2020.

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Chris Kirk +5500

Hawaii is a business trip for Chris Kirk. Multiple runners-up at Sony (2014, 2021), a third place in 2023 and won The Sentry in 2024. Ended this past season with top 10s at Wyndham and the first playoff event in Memphis. Probably itching to get going.

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Harry Hall +5000

Let’s keep it simple here. I wanted a great Round 1 player and a guy who played the PGA Fall season well. Hall had the 3rd best average in Round 1s during 2025 and he played phenomenal down the stretch last year. If he grabs an early tee time, let’s see him catch fire.

David Rumsey, Front Office Sports - Jordan Spieth +5000

Seeing Spieth atop the leaderboard—even if just for a day—would be sure to capture the attention of golf fans at the outset of the 2026 PGA Tour season. And it wouldn’t be unfamiliar. In 2023, Spieth shot an opening-round 64 in Honolulu to capture a share of the lead, before following up with a 75 to miss the cut at his most recent Sony Open appearance.

Sony Open Longshots

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Billy Horschel +7000

A golfer ranked 53rd in the world at +7000 on DraftKings, especially in a field that is decent but not elite, especially on a course that doesn't mandate extreme driving distance, is an eye-opener. Horschel missed six months last year after undergoing hip surgery. But he returned in the fall and showed he was healthy with a T11 in Utah. He generally gains strokes against the field everywhere but off the tee because he averages under 300 with his driver. That's a good fit for Waialae.

Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Neal Shipley +11000

Neal Shipley. Just taking a flyer here. We've seen some guys have big debuts at the Sony. I think Shipley is the next. 

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Bud Cauley +11000

Quietly one of the best stories in golf last year. Finally healthy, Cauley contended at The Players, Valspar, Valero and Colonial before fatigue set in later in the season. I think he becomes a Tour winner in 2026.

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Nick Dunlap +14000

The former U.S. Amateur had an incredible 2024 season winning his first two PGA Tour events, but had a fall off during 2025. I want to get ahead of Dunlap’s high-ceiling going into this season. His boom-or-bust ability and occasional hot putter makes me love this number.

David Rumsey, Front Office Sports - Tony Finau +11000

Last season was a year to forget for Finau, his third straight winless campaign. Finau has work to do to qualify for The Masters in April, so the motivation is there. Plus, +11000 feels a little harsh for a 6-time PGA Tour winner.

Most Recent Winners, Scores and Odds

Who's Who In Sony Open Rountdtable

Len Hochberg has covered golf for RotoWire since 2013. A veteran sports journalist, he was an editor and reporter at The Washington Post for nine years. Len is a three-time winner of the FSWA DFS Writer of the Year Award (2020, '22 and '23) and a five-time nominee (2019-23). He is also a writer and editor for MLB Advanced Media.

Josh Carpenter covers golf and sports media for Sports Business Journal, having been with the publication since 2012. Away from the office, Josh loves playing golf and spending time with his wife Amy and son, Walt. He is an avid supporter of the Carolina Hurricanes and Tennessee Volunteers.

Thomas Leary is a senior editor with Gambling.com Group who works across a variety of the company's portfolios, including Bookies.com. Previously, Thomas spent over six years at Sports Business Journal where he helped launch the digital newsletter division. He is a Charlotte, NC native and long-suffering Hornets fan.

Jared Kimble is a media manager with Gambling.com Group who oversees the group's North American digital PR efforts. Jared previously worked for the Orlando Magic. A Pennsylvania native, he is an Elon University graduate and currently resides in Charlotte, NC.

David Rumsey is a reporter at Front Office Sports, focusing on golf, college football, and the NFL. He has a B.A. in Communication Studies from Southern Adventist University in Chattanooga, Tenn. David is based in Charleston, S.C.

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