Texas Children's Houston Open 2026: Picks and Leans For PGA Tour This Week

By Thomas Leary

Mar 24th, 2026 5:47 PM EDT

Jake Knapp is one of the favorites this week in Houston (USATODAY)

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The Florida swing is over for golf bettors, and there was plenty of heartbreak to go around if you happened to back the likes of Daniel Berger, Shane Lowry, Ludvig Aberg or Sunjae Im on a given week. A 54-hole lead doesn't mean much this PGA Tour season it appears, which also creates opportunity across the odds board ahead of any given week.

With Augusta just two weeks away, favorites like Scottie Scheffler were expected to descend on The Lone Star State for their final tune-up before the first major of the year. But with Scheffler out for family reasons and no Rory McIlroy, either, this week feels wide open.

This golf betting season, Bookies.com continues to provide analysis from a variety of experts across the space, including leans on first round leaders, longshots, top 20s, matchups and much more.

Check out insight from a variety of sources below before you head to your favorite U.S. sports betting app.

What to Know About Memorial Park

• Firm and Fast "Augusta Prep": Designed as a strategic tune-up for the Masters, the course features overseeded Bermudagrass fairways and Poa trivialis greens. The surfaces are expected to be significantly firmer than the unusually soft 2025 conditions, with green speeds targeting a lightning-fast 12 to 13 on the Stimpmeter.
• A Massive Test of Length: Memorial Park remains one of the longest layouts on the PGA Tour rotation. For 2026, the par-70 course has been stretched even further to approximately 7,565 yards (up from 7,475), following an extension of the par-4 17th hole. This emphasizes a bombs away approach off the tee, especially with relatively wide fairways and manageable 1.25-inch rough.
• The "Doak" Short-Game Challenge: Unlike courses that rely on thick rough for defense, this Tom Doak redesign uses tight short-grass runoff areas and steep false fronts. Missed approach shots will funnel 20–30 yards away from the hole, forcing players to choose between delicate chips or long putts from off the green—a specific skill set required for success at Augusta National.

Now let's pick 'em!

Houston Open Winner Picks

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Jake Knapp +2400

Knapp finally stumbled for the first time in 2026 last time out at THE PLAYERS. He missed the cut. But he is ranked second on Tour in SG: Putting, and great putting has correlated to success here the past two years. Of course, you need to do other things well, such as hit the ball far. Oh, Knapp is also conveniently ranked eighth in driving distance. He's ranked in the top-65 in every strokes-gained category and, even though I didn't check every player, I'm fairly certain no one else can say that (but feel free to check me!).

Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Brooks Koepka +2500

Trendy pick this week, but hard to not like the direction Koepka has been going. Since that missed cut at the WM Phoenix Open, he's had three straight top 20s and ranks first on tour in strokes gained approach over his last five starts. Also assisted Tom Doak with the renovation to Memorial Park in recent years.

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Marco Penge +3200

There might not be a better course fit for the 27-year-old bomber all year, and he arrives in Texas off a T4 at the Valspar, so the form is there. It's taken a little time to settle into PGA Tour life for the 3-time DPWT winner. But this isn't a very deep field (especially without Scheffler), and I'm a big believer in Penge's talent. This just may be the week.

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Jake Knapp +2400

Knapp is the second-best putter in the field this season and every single Memorial Park winner over the last five years has finished top-5 in SG:Putting -- making him the ideal profile match for this course. He leads the field in Par-5 birdie percentage, ranks 3rd in bogey avoidance, and has the length off the tee to attack the longest Par 70 on tour, rattling off five finishes of T11 or better in six starts this year. At +2400 he's the best combination of elite putting, distance, and current form on the board this week.

David Rumsey, FOS - Jake Knapp +2400

Despite missing the cut at the Players, I like what Knapp is bringing to the table this year—he had four straight top 10s before Sawgrass. His power off the tee should be a nice advantage for him this week, as the big hitters typically fare well in Houston. Knapp is due for his second career PGA Tour victory, and Houston would elevate his winning credentials beyond his 2024 title in Mexico.

Bill Speros, Bookies - Brooks Koepka +2500

Scottie Scheffler is out this week. That opens wide the betting field. The shortest odds on FanDuel belong to defending champion Min Woo Lee at +1300. We’re going back to the bag with Koepka. The field is for the taking. And at +2500, Brooksie is worth a shot.

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Houston Open Top 20 Picks

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Rickie Fowler +122

While Fowler qualified for every signature event in 2026 by virtue of his top-50 finish in the FedEx Cup points standings last year, he still is not in the Masters. If he has a good result this week, he will get in. Fowler is ranked 61st OWGR, and he needs to be in the top-50 by week's end. He has played well this season, opening with three top-20s, then adding a top-10 at Bay Hill and not missing a cut in six starts. He's ranked top-50 in both SG: Off-the-Tee and Approach, and ninth overall in Putting. That's actually very good.

Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Chris Gotterup +104

Who else heard Gotterup say on the tour's "Chasing Sunday" show that he couldn't wait to get to Houston so he could hit the ball wherever he wanted? Finished 18th here last year, and some time off should have him back on track.

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Stephan Jaeger +205

This is good value for your 2024 Houston Open champion. Jaeger had a brutal second half of last season, but is slowly rounding back into form. T5 at the Farmers, T7 last week at Valspar. Was also T11 here last year. Might be his favorite course on Tour. At least it's the site of his lone win!

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Shane Lowry +178

Lowry is one of just nine players in the field who ranks top-25 in both bogey avoidance and SG:Total in difficult scoring conditions -- exactly the survival profile that cashes Top 20 tickets at a course where the cut has ranged from -3 to +3 over five years. He's posted six top-12 finishes in nine starts this season and his elite around-the-green game is perfectly suited to navigate Doak's steep runoffs, which replace traditional bunkers as Memorial Park's primary defense. At +178 he's a steady, high-floor play in a field where the mid-tier is full of inconsistency.

David Rumsey, FOS - Brooks Koepka +122

This is my favorite bet of the week. I really don’t see a scenario where Koepka plays poorly in Houston. As it will be for many others, the lack of trouble off the tee will allow Koepka to use his length and attack pins on almost every hole. He shouldn’t be plus money to Top 20.

Bill Speros, Bookies - Nicolai Hojgaard +128

This field is so thin, so we’ll go with Højgaard at +128 to make the final Top 20. He’s currently on the Masters bubble, ranked No. 47 in the world. A solid finish here clinches a berth at Augusta.

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First Round Leader Picks

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Ryan Fox +7000

Fox has played four times in 2026 and has finished top-25 or better in all of them. At Riviera, he opened with a sterling 67, and he wound up tying for seventh. At Bay Hill, he shot a Thursday 68 en route to a T24. He is ranked 16th on Tour in Round 1 scoring. Fox had to skip THE PLAYERS because of kidney stones -- and they had to be removed surgically. So this seems like a quick return. But he is already qualified for the Masters, so he must feel 100 percent again. Fox tied for 15th in Houston a year ago. He is one of the biggest hitters on Tour, yet he's well balanced statistically, including ranking 35th in SG: Putting.

Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Jake Knapp +4200

Memorial Park plays to his strength off the tee, and outside of that missed cut at the Players, he's been one of the top players on tour this season with four top 8 finishes already.

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Keith Mitchell +5000

The FRL merchant himself. Hasn't missed a cut all year, but needs to start attacking the course and make something happen to get to Augusta.

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Sam Burns +4300

Burns is the best putter on the PGA Tour and putting is the single most important stat at Memorial Park -- every winner in five years here has been top-5 with the flatstick, and when Burns's putter gets hot early he can go absurdly low in any given round. All five of his career PGA Tour wins have come in the south with two in Texas, so the Bermuda-to-Poa transition and warm conditions are right in his comfort zone. At +4300 for first round leader, you're betting on the tour's most dangerous putter at a course purpose-built to reward exactly that skill.

David Rumsey, FOS - Chris Gotterup +3600

After a frustrating end to the Players -- a T56 finish -- Gotterup was heard saying on the PGA Tour’s ‘Chasing Sunday’ doc that he “can’t wait to get to Houston” and hit it as hard as he can. I like the two-time 2026 winner to start hot and likely be in contention on the weekend, too.

Bill Speros, Bookies - Rickie Fowler +3500

Nobody owns Thursday and Friday more than Rickie.

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Houston Longshot Picks

Len Hochberg, RotoWire - Tony Finau +7800

The once great Finau is now the just okay Finau. But he has had great success at Memorial Park. He won there in 2022, then shared runner-up in 2024. Finau has three top-20s this season, including last week at the Valspar, and that's been a bit under radar. His biggest issue has been driving accuracy, which isn't as important this week as in many others.

Josh Carpenter, Sports Business Journal - Gary Woodland +9400

A top 15 at the Valspar and returns to a spot where he was runner up last year. Finished inside the top 21 in both of his prior appearances at Memorial Park.

Thomas Leary, Bookies - Aldrich Potgieter +8000

It's been a truly terrible 2026 for Potgieter outside of a T5 at Genesis. But the young man can contend at any course where his driver will be such a weapon like Memorial Park. He's also the rare breed who can win coming off several missed cuts.

Jared Kimble, Bookies - Tony Finau +7800

Finau won this tournament in 2022 and led the field in SG:Tee-to-Green as runner-up in 2024, proving his game is tailor-made for Memorial Park when he's anywhere close to his best — and at 7,475 yards, his elite distance off the tee is a weapon few in this field can match. The putter has been the problem in 2026, but he's gained strokes putting in multiple Memorial Park starts, and this is a course where his flatstick has historically shown up even when it's cold elsewhere. At +7800 you're getting a proven course winner with a two-year track record of contending here at a price that overreacts to his slow season form.

David Rumsey, FOS - Aldrich Potgieter +8000

Outside of a fifth-place finish at Riviera, the 2026 season has been pretty disappointing so far for Potgieter. But sticking with the theme of the longest hitters thriving in Houston, perhaps the second-year PGA Tour member can find something in Texas.

Bill Speros, Bookies - Sungjae Im +7000

He finished T4 last week at the Valspar Championship and appears to be recovering well from his wrist injury. Looking on the bright side after poor final round in Tampa.

Recent Houston Open History

Who's Who In Bookies Golf Roundtable

Len Hochberg has covered golf for RotoWire since 2013. A veteran sports journalist, he was an editor and reporter at The Washington Post for nine years. Len is a three-time winner of the FSWA DFS Writer of the Year Award (2020, '22 and '23) and a five-time nominee (2019-23). He is also a writer and editor for MLB Advanced Media.

Josh Carpenter covers golf and sports media for Sports Business Journal, having been with the publication since 2012. Away from the office, Josh loves playing golf and spending time with his wife Amy and son, Walt. He is an avid supporter of the Carolina Hurricanes and Tennessee Volunteers.

Thomas Leary is a senior editor with Gambling.com Group who works across a variety of the company's portfolios, including Bookies.com. Previously, Thomas spent over six years at Sports Business Journal where he helped launch the digital newsletter division. He is a Charlotte, NC native and long-suffering Hornets fan.

Jared Kimble is a media manager with Gambling.com Group who oversees the group's North American digital PR efforts. Jared previously worked for the Orlando Magic. A Pennsylvania native, he is an Elon University graduate and currently resides in Charlotte, NC.

David Rumsey is a reporter at Front Office Sports, focusing on golf, college football, and the NFL. He has a B.A. in Communication Studies from Southern Adventist University in Chattanooga, Tenn. David is based in Charleston, S.C.

Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.

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