The LA28 Ticket Lottery: Breaking Down the Implied Probability of an Olympic Ticket Win
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The registration for the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics (LA28) has officially opened, and for US sports betting enthusiasts, the first event isn't on the field. It’s the lottery.
While LA28 will offer a record 14 million tickets, the "Drop 1" selection process this April is where the early volatility lies. Bookies.com ahead of this year's Winter Games had fun with odds to attend the next Summer Games two years from now.
Odds Of Being Selected For Purchase Time Slot
Based on data from Paris 2024, which saw roughly 4 million registrants for its draw, we can project the "true" odds of being selected for a purchase time slot. If LA28 matches Paris’s interest, the probability of scoring a slot in the first draw sits at roughly 18% (+450). However, with the Games returning to the massive U.S. market, a surge to 6 million registrants would drop those odds to a leaner 12.5% (+700).
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The "Local Lock"
The smart money is on the Southern California local pool. Residents of the five host counties (LA, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Ventura) receive a dedicated presale window from April 2–6. With a local population of nearly 19 million, even a high 15% registration rate among locals would still offer significantly higher implied probability than the general global draw.
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The "Parlay" Strategy
Remember: The lottery is a "rolling" event. If you miss the first cut, your entry automatically carries over to future drops. While the single-draw odds might look like a long shot, the cumulative probability of being selected at some point before 2028 currently sits at a much more favorable 5/8 (62.5%).
If you're ready for this year's Winter Games, keep an eye on the LA28 site for more ticket updates.
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