2026 World Cup: Who Will Each State Root For?

May 29th, 2026 11:52 AM EDT

May 28, 2026; Los Angeles, CA, USA; An Adidas advertisement featuring Lionel Messi for the FIFA World Cup 2026 at the E-Central Los Angeles hotel. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

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With the 2026 FIFA World Cup heading to the United States, Mexico, and Canada this June, every state in the country is about to be a soccer state — at least for a month. But who will Americans actually root for once the games start?

The United States is the obvious answer in most places — and our heritage-and-popularity index confirms it. But in border states, immigration hubs, and pockets with deep ancestral ties, the picture is more layered. In California, Mexico is the country's strongest second team. In Hawaii, it's Japan. In North Dakota, Norway shows up in the top three. And in Washington, D.C., Ghana sneaks in thanks to one of the most diverse African diasporas in the country.

Below, we break down what we built, how the math works, and which 2026 World Cup teams will have the loudest second-row of fans in each of the 50 states and D.C.

How we built the 2026 World Cup rooting interest index

Each state in our index has 100 percentage points of rooting interest to split across the 2026 World Cup field. The United States is included in every state as the host nation, then the next two World Cup teams that get the most projected rooting interest are listed alongside.

We blended two inputs:

Ancestry and Hispanic-origin data from the 2020 U.S. Census and the American Community Survey's 2024 5-year estimates (Table B04006). For each state, we calculated the percentage of residents with ties to each World Cup nation — Mexican, German, Norwegian, Portuguese, Japanese, Colombian, and so on.
Google Trends state-level search interest (February through May 2026) for each of the 36 most relevant qualified national teams. This captures who fans are actually following — Argentina because of Messi, Brazil because of Vinícius and Rodrygo, Portugal because of Ronaldo.

Heritage drives the bulk of each non-U.S. team's share, weighted by an engagement multiplier. Recent immigrant communities (Mexican-American, Colombian-American, Portuguese-American) maintain rooting ties more strongly than third- or fourth-generation European-American identity, which is more assimilated. A small popularity bonus distributes share across teams with broad American interest, regardless of ancestry. Heritage allocation is capped so even Texas — the most Mexican-American state by total population — sees the U.S. host effect dominate.

The result isn't a poll. It's a projection: an editorial estimate of how each state's rooting interest will split, built from real ancestry and search data.

2026 World CupAll 51 US Jurisdictions · Editorial Index

World Cup Heritage Index by State

A heritage-and-popularity projection of how each state's rooting interest splits across three teams — the United States as host, plus the two World Cup nations most tied to local ancestry, diaspora, and Google Trends search interest.

Sort:

States Covered

50 states + DC

WC Teams Featured

of 48 qualified

Most American

93%

Mississippi

Most International

77%

California (US share)

Heritage-and-popularity index. Each non-US team's share blends state-level ancestry (weighted by diaspora engagement) with Google Trends US search interest for that team's national side (Feb-May 2026). Ancestry from 2020 Census & ACS 2024 5-year. Click any state for the underlying numbers.

Editorial heritage-and-popularity index. Built from US Census ACS ancestry & Hispanic-origin data (2020 Decennial & 2024 ACS 5-year), Google Trends state-level US search interest (Feb-May 2026), and diaspora engagement multipliers. The United States is included as host in every state. 10 of 48 qualified WC teams appear in any state's top 3. Not a poll.

The five states with the strongest non-U.S. rooting interest

Five states have a U.S. share below 80% in our index — meaning a meaningful chunk of their population is projected to root primarily for a non-U.S. team. All five are driven by Mexican-American populations:

California — 77% United States / 15% Mexico / 2% Germany. The most populous state has the largest absolute Mexican-American community in the country (32.3% of CA residents, per 2020 Census).
Texas — 78% United States / 16% Mexico / 2% Germany. Texas is 33.7% Mexican-American, the highest share in the country, but the host effect plus a more conservative engagement multiplier pulls the rooting share down to a defensible 16%.
New Mexico — 79% United States / 15% Mexico / 2% Germany. Deep-rooted Hispano and Mexican-American populations stretching back generations.
Arizona — 79% United States / 13% Mexico / 3% Germany. Phoenix and Tucson anchor a large Mexican-American community.
Nevada — 82% United States / 10% Mexico / 2% Germany. Las Vegas's growth has brought a large Hispanic population into a state that was once heavily Mormon and Anglo.

It's worth noting what these numbers do and don't say. They don't claim that one out of every six Texans will literally cheer against the United States. They project the share of rooting interest — including casual fans, recent immigrants, and dual-loyalty households — that flows to Mexico over the U.S. when those fans pick one team to follow. Plenty of Texans will root for both.

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The Wisconsin German story (and other heritage surprises)

Outside the border states, the heritage map points to some of the more interesting World Cup stories of 2026.

Wisconsin is the country's most German state by ancestry — 35.3% of residents claim German heritage according to the ACS 2024 5-year data, more than any other state. In our index, that translates to 83% U.S., 9% Germany, 3% Mexico. The Germany share is the highest of any state in the country, and it reflects something concrete: pockets of Milwaukee, Madison, and the Fox Valley that still cluster around Lutheran churches, biergartens, and Oktoberfest weekends.

Other heritage-driven surprises in our index:

Minnesota — 83% U.S. / 7% Germany / 3% Norway. The Upper Midwest's Scandinavian diaspora puts Norway in the top three.
North Dakota — 81% U.S. / 9% Germany / 5% Norway. The most Norwegian state in the country (19.6% Norwegian ancestry).
Hawaii — 83% U.S. / 8% Japan / 2% Portugal. Multi-generational Japanese-American communities (17.0% of the state) put Japan firmly in the second slot.
Massachusetts — 88% U.S. / 2% Portugal / 2% Brazil. Portuguese-American communities in Fall River and New Bedford anchor the Portugal share; the Brazil share rides on Brazilian immigration plus a small Italian-American crossover (Italy missed qualification, and Italian-Americans tend to drift toward Brazil or Argentina, both of which have large Italian populations).
District of Columbia — 91% U.S. / 2% Germany / 1% Ghana. D.C.'s large sub-Saharan African foreign-born population gives Ghana a top-three slot, the only place in the country where Ghana appears.
Louisiana — 89% U.S. / 3% France / 2% Germany. Acadian and Cajun French heritage pushes France into the second slot.

Which 48 teams qualified for the 2026 World Cup?

The 2026 World Cup is the first to expand to 48 national teams, up from 32. The breakdown:

CONCACAF (6): United States, Mexico, Canada (all hosts), plus Curaçao, Haiti, Panama
CONMEBOL (6): Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Uruguay
UEFA (16): England, France, Germany, Spain, Portugal, Netherlands, Belgium, Croatia, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, Scotland, Austria, Czechia, Türkiye, Bosnia and Herzegovina
AFC (9): Australia, Iran, Japan, Jordan, South Korea, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan, Iraq
CAF (10): Algeria, Cabo Verde, Côte d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ghana, Morocco, Senegal, South Africa, Tunisia, DR Congo
OFC (1): New Zealand

Of those 48 teams, our index finds 10 different World Cup nations appearing in at least one state's top three: Brazil, Colombia, England, France, Germany, Ghana, Japan, Mexico, Norway, and Portugal. The other 37 teams have meaningful fans somewhere in the country, but not enough concentrated heritage or popularity to crack a state's top three alongside the U.S.

You'll find the best US sports betting apps for the World Cup here at Bookies.

Why the host nation effect matters

Soccer fans have long noted that hosting a World Cup pulls in casual viewers — flag-waving Americans who don't follow MLS but show up for the U.S. men's national team when the tournament is in their backyard. Our model gives the U.S. a 50% baseline floor in every state and lets heritage and popularity reduce that share from there, but never below the floor.

The reason: even in the most Mexican-American state in the country, a meaningful share of Mexican-Americans will root for the U.S. as their country of birth or citizenship — particularly second- and third-generation Mexican-Americans watching a tournament on home soil. Our engagement multiplier for Mexican-Americans is 45%, meaning we project 45% of Mexican-American Texans pick Mexico as their primary rooting interest over the U.S. The other 55% picks the U.S., a dual loyalty, or doesn't care.

The same logic applies across diasporas: 25% for German-Americans, 10% for English-Americans (the most assimilated identity), 45% for Japanese-Americans, and so on. These multipliers are editorial estimates — they're the part of the model that's most defensible to question and most fun to argue about over a beer.

Frequently asked questions

How many teams are in the 2026 World Cup?

The 2026 World Cup features 48 teams — the first expansion from the 32-team format used since 1998. The expanded field is what makes the rooting-interest map so layered: 10 different nations show up in at least one state's top three behind the U.S., including unexpected entrants like Ghana (in Washington, D.C.) and Norway (in North Dakota and Minnesota).

Where is the 2026 World Cup being held?

The 2026 World Cup is co-hosted by the United States, Mexico, and Canada, with 16 host cities split across all three countries. Eleven of those host cities are in the U.S., which is the single biggest reason the host nation effect dominates our rooting-interest model — even in the most heritage-heavy states, the games are happening on home soil.

Who is favored to win the 2026 World Cup?

Sportsbooks list Spain, Brazil, France, Argentina, and England as the top contenders to win the 2026 World Cup. Notably, those favorites don't always line up with where American fans pick a second team. Mexico is the second-most-rooted-for team in 22 U.S. states despite not being a championship favorite, which underscores the difference between betting odds and rooting interest.

What is the most popular soccer team in the U.S.?

By Google Trends search interest from February through May 2026, the U.S. men's national team is the most-searched soccer team in 49 of 51 jurisdictions. Mexico is the most-searched team in two — California and Texas — reflecting both the size of the Mexican-American population and the long-running popularity of El Tri's matches on U.S. soil.

Which states have the strongest Mexican-American fan base for the World Cup?

Five states project at least 10% rooting interest for Mexico in our index: California (15%), Texas (16%), New Mexico (15%), Arizona (13%), and Nevada (10%). All five have Mexican-American populations above 15% of total state residents, per 2020 Census data. Texas has the highest share of Mexican-American residents (33.7%), but California has the largest Mexican-American population by absolute count.