By Bill Speros | | 21 mins
Aaron Rodgers Odds & Props To Consider As QB Reports To Camp
Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers took a blowtorch to the Packers’ front office when he reported to training camp this week. Now, after speaking his mind during a surreal press conference and publicly unloading months of frustration at his employers, it’s time for the 2020 NFL MVP to get back to work and produce numbers similar or better to the ones from last season.
Rodgers completed 70.7% of his attempts and threw for 4,299 yards and 48 TDs last season, against just 5 interceptions. His arrival to camp trigged a flood of new NFL betting props and NFL futures wagers.
Aaron Rodgers 2021 Futures: Fade Or Back?
NFL MVP Award
Rodgers came from nowhere to dominate the MVP discussion over the second half of the 2020 season. He was +400 with a month to go in the season and still won in a romp. The Packers finished 13-3, and fell short in the NFC championship to Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31-26.
That frustrating fail set off a tsunami of ill will, media leaks and bad vibes that left Rodgers’ fate uncertain for fans and bettors until Monday of this week. Rodgers' odds to repeat as NFL MVP had bounced to +2000 when rumors hit last weekend that he would sit out. Now he is.
There’s already a swell of emotion in Rodgers’ corner. But he’s taken on an extra burden as de facto GM, in much the same way Brady has done in Tampa Bay. Rodgers has made it clear that he’s going to have input in player decisions. Therefore, he’s going to be held responsible for the team’s outcome, and not just his own.
Rodgers has an arsenal of offensive personnel at his disposal. But the competition for this award in 2021 is fierce. Rodgers is a terrific QB, the second-best of this century, but he won’t be MVP this season.
Fade or back? FADE
NFL Most Passing TDs
Here are the odds for most passing TDs in the NFL this season as posted at FanDuel sportsbook.
|NFL Most Passing TDs||Odds|
Rodgers led the NFL with 48 TDs last season. And he’s primed to make a run at 50 in 2021, especially with an extra game on the schedule. This is a much better value play than his MVP odds and appears more likely.
The lone caveat here is that the Bucs have the fourth-weakest schedule in terms of opponents’ 2020 records, which could allow Brady to repeat his 2007 performance of 50 TDs. The greats – like Rodgers and Brady – always seem to find a motivation.
The price on Mahomes is too high in this market, as well. We like Rodgers to win the NFL TD passing title.
Fade or back? BACK
NFL Most Passing Yards
Here are the odds to have the most yards passing in the NFL regular season as posted at FanDuel sportsbook.
|NFL Most Passing Yards||Odds|
Another loaded category. Rodgers finished seventh in total yards passing last season despite his MVP performance. He threw for 4,299 yards, finishing 524 yards behind NFL leader Deshaun Watson. While Watson is not in this year’s discussion, the likes of Mahomes, Allen, Brady, Justin Herbert and Matt Ryan are.
The price on Mahomes is too high given the competition. We’ve been leaning toward Prescott and Allen in both the MVP hunt and this category. The number on Rodgers on betting apps is incredibly tempting, but it's not going to happen for him this season.
Fade or back? FADE
Over 49.5 TDs & 4999.5 Yards Passing
Any time you get +2500 on any Rodgers prop bet, it’s worth a look. But the numbers here are just too steep, even at this price. Rodgers throwing 50 TDs is within reach over a 17-game season, given his total last year. But 5,000 yards is a bit too much to digest here.
Fade or back? FADE
Total 35.5 TDs Passing
There’s nothing to indicate that Rodgers will see his TD production drop more than 25% from last year to this year, which is what would have to happen for Rodgers to go under this total. This is a solid play even at even money.
Rodgers has failed to throw more than 35.5 TD passes in three of the past six years in which he has played 16 games. You’ll know early in the season where this one is headed. We like the over.
Fade or back? BACK THE OVER