Eytan Shander for Bookies.com

By Eytan Shander | | 8 mins

Bears at Buccaneers Picks, Predictions & Betting Guide NFL Week 7

Bears at Buccaneers Picks, Predictions & Betting Guide NFL Week 7
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The Bucs return home after an extended time off following a victory in Philadelphia where nothing seemed out of hand. Things should get easier for Tom Brady and Tampa as they host a Bears team dealing with injury and flux at key positions.

The game features one of three monster NFL spreads north of 12 points. While Chicago deals with a rotation of injured RBs and a brand-new rookie QB in Justin Fields, Brady and his crew are getting healthier this week.

There should be little shock sportsbooks see this game as all Tampa. Rob Gronkowski, Lavonte David and Antoine Winfield are all looking to return, which makes things increasingly difficult for the Bears.

David Montgomery is still out, and now Damien Williams may miss Sunday’s game in Tampa Bay. The Bears offense has yet to open anything up with Fields, hurting productivity of their prime WR weapon in Allen Robinson. Meanwhile the Bucs offense is on fire, with plenty of NFL betting opportunities for previously injured stars returning to Tampa Bay's unit.

And there's no better example in this game than Gronk stepping back into an offense featuring three different big-play receivers – Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin.

The Bucs are a strong 12.5-point home favorite against the Bears. Tampa Bay is a -676 monster favorite on the ML, while the Bears would be a major upset for the books at +550. The total for this game is 47.5 points.

Check out the latest Bears vs. Buccaneers odds ahead of the matchup on Sunday.

Bears vs. Bucs Key Matchups

Brady vs. Everybody: The unstoppable force that even Father Time has yet to slow down returns home, where the Bucs have covered six of seven ATS. Chicago’s defense might be good enough to slow Brady down. Might being the operative word.

Rush O vs. Rush D: Apply every edge when making NFL picks like with the difference in success of running and stopping the run. The Bucs don’t allow anyone to run, yet the Bears can’t do anything but run. Offenses usually blink first.

Fields vs. Bucs Secondary: Justin Fields has an opportunity to break out as an NFL passer against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. If Matt Nagy ever wanted to open up the playbook - and save his job – he would demand Fields take some shots.


RELATED: NFL Week 7 Odds & Betting Lines For All Games


Bears vs. Bucs Key Stats

2:3: Justin Fields’ TD:INT ratio through four starts. The Bucs aren’t great at stopping the pass but can pressure the QB. Chicago also knows how difficult it will be for anyone to run against Tampa. Something has to give.

4: Tom Brady’s thumb may be the culprit, but his lone interception against the Eagles snapped a four-game streak without throwing a pick.

17: Brady’s TD count through the six games so far this season. Antonio Brown seems revived, as does Gronkowski – who expects to return to the offense on Sunday.

350.8: The Bucs average this number in the air per game. The number leads the NFL in passing yards and will certainly test the Bears' 11th-ranked pass defense.

30: The Bears defense has only given up 30+ points one time this season, Week 1 against the Rams. This could easily be the second time for Chicago with betting sites giving the total a little bump at 47.5.


Bears vs. Bucs Player Props

Justin Fields, Under 223.5 Passing Yards

Odds: -115 at DraftKings

Fields has eclipsed the 200-yard mark just once this year, 209 yards vs. Detroit. Tampa may be awful defending the pass, but Fields won’t take advantage of it.

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Tom Brady, Under 305.5 Passing Yards

Odds: -115 at BetMGM

Brady has been phenomenal, but this is a tough passing defense he’ll face with the Bears. Combine that with having many more scoring opportunities than Fields, and Brady may not need to throw as much.

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Darnell Mooney, Over 53.5 Receiving Yards

Odds: -110 at DraftKings

The one time Fields did go over 200 yards passing, Mooney was the prime benefactor. He had the 125-yard game against Detroit and is coming off 5+ targets in each of his past two games.


Bears vs. Bucs Moneyline

The only true move here would be jumping on the Bears with a return of 5.5 back. The likelihood of this cashing – outside of the percentage – asks the Bears to do a ton, including stop the Bucs in the air.

Tampa is certainly beatable but not by an offense that can’t score. Justin Fields may be a serviceable QB in the NFL, but he isn’t equipped to battle Brady. The Bucs become an anchor play in any parlay, but little outside of that with this huge number.

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Bears vs. Bucs Point Spread

The most interesting part of this line is that it’s not at or above 14 points. Granted it was bet up a little bit but has since returned to where it opened. How confident are you in the Bears keeping things close? That’s the answer you need to provide before laying anything north of 12 points.

If you believe Brady is healthy and the offense will flourish against a rather good pass D, then lay the points. Be warned, the Bears defense is good enough to limit points on the board, which may slow the game down. But Tampa is back home, so lay anything less than 13. You can get the Bucs -12.5 (-110) at DraftKings.

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Bears vs. Bucs Totals

The Bucs are 3-0 when they hit 30+ points. They’ve also won two other games while failing to hit that number, but it’s a great floor in this game. If (when) the Bucs get to 30, the game will essentially be over. No way Chicago’s offense can match that point total, but can they bring enough to the table to push this total?

No. Fields and A-Rob don’t have enough, and Khalil Herbert won’t be able to move. Bucs do their part in getting to 30 but Chicago may not hit 14. Take the Under 47 at FanDuel .

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About the Author

Eytan Shander for Bookies.com
Eytan Shander
Eytan Shander writes about the NFL, NBA and more for Bookies.com. A 15-year radio veteran, he has worked nationally for Mad Dog Radio & NBC Sports Radio.