By Adam Thompson | | 10 mins
Bills vs Chiefs Picks & SNF Betting Predictions NFL Week 5
Expect offensive fireworks when Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills travel to face Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football for the NFL Week 5 weekend finale.
The Bills (3-1) have scored at least 35 points in their last three games, all victories. The Chiefs have scored 33-plus in three of four, including a 42-point outburst in Week 4. Betting sites and most betting apps generally have Kansas City at -2.5 in the latest Bills vs. Chiefs NFL spreads range for this showdown of AFC championship contenders.
Check out the latest Bills vs. Chiefs odds, betting lines, injury report and more.
Bills vs. Chiefs Key Matchups
Dalton Knox vs. Chiefs Defense: No team has allowed more yards to TEs than Kansas City. The last two weeks, Knox has nine receptions for 86 yards and three TDs.
Josh Allen vs. Chiefs Defense: Allen passed for only 122 yards in his lone game vs. KC last October. He’s averaging 264 yards passing in four games this season and the Chiefs are allowing 307 ypg through the air in 2021.
Devin Singletary vs. Zack Moss: The Bills RBs have traded big games. The last three weeks overall, Singletary has 38 carries for 178 yards (4.7), Moss has 35 carries for 147 (4.2), but Moss has four total TDs compared to one for Singletary, and 23 more receiving yards.
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5 Key Bills vs. Chiefs Stats
2.6: The turnover margin differential between these teams. Buffalo’s 1.8 turnover differential ranks No. 1 in the NFL, Kansas City’s -0.8 ranks 27th.
5: Against the spread victories by the Chiefs over the Bills in the last six meetings, including a 26-17 win at Buffalo last season.
7: Interceptions by the Bills defense, second only to the Cowboys (8). Patrick Mahomes’ four INTs is tied for the most among the top 15 passers through four weeks.
16.8: Average yards per reception for Bills WR Emmanuel Sanders, fourth-most among WRs with more than 15 receptions. KC ranks 29th in yards allowed per catch.
119.1: The average QB Rating for Patrick Mahomes in games following a five-TD performance, with 11 TDs and zero INTs in three career instances. He tossed five last week vs. the Eagles.
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Bills vs. Chiefs Weather Forecast
Sunday night in KC calls for possible scattered showers and temperatures in the 60s at kickoff. Expect clouds but little wind above the lights of Arrowhead Stadium.
Bills vs Chiefs Prop Bets
Mecole Hardman, Over 30.5 Receiving Yards
Odds: -115 at DraftKings
Everyone on KC takes a back seat to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. But Hardman has established himself as the true No. 3 option for Patrick Mahomes. His 18 targets and 13 receptions are far higher than anyone not mentioned yet.
Travis Kelce, Under 89.5 Receiving Yards
Odds: -115 at DraftKings
The Bills have only allowed 142 receiving yards to TEs through four weeks. Kelce is a different breed, but in four career games vs. Buffalo he’s averaged just 48 yards per game and he’s never had more than 69. They have him figured out better than most.
Josh Allen, Under 305.5 Passing Yards
Odds: -115 at DraftKings
The Chiefs’ pass defense is bad, but its run defense is even worse, and if Buffalo can run the ball at will, they will. Allen was miserable in his one game vs. KC (122 yards in on Oct. 10, 2020); expect more than that, but a total closer to 250 than 300.
More Receiving Yards: Tyreek Hill over Stefon Diggs
Odds: -125 at PointsBet
We know the Bills’ pass defense is better than the Chiefs’ unit, but Hill is averaging 37 more receiving yards per game this season. Diggs has been the more consistent of the two, with three games in the 60s before going off for 114 in Week 4. Hill has games of 186 and 197, but also ones of 56 and 14. Still, with Buffalo so good at stopping TEs, Hill should see a lot of targets.
Longest TD, Over 1.5 Yards
Odds: -110 BetMGM
Theses are two of the more prolific offenses in the NFL, but through four games they’ve combined for just three one-yard TDs, and two of those were by the Chiefs in the same game. Buffalo hasn’t allowed a one-yard score and KC has surrendered only one.
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Bills vs. Chiefs Moneyline
When it comes to NFL betting on the moneyline, going against Patrick Mahomes is usually not a wise investment.
This year it’s been a different story. The Chiefs are only 2-2 on the season, thanks mostly to a defense that ranks 31st in both points and yards allowed. Inopportune Mahomes turnovers have made the situation even worse. On the flip side, no team east of Arizona is playing better than Buffalo over the past three weeks. The Bills can make their mark with a win here, and they’re in position to do so. You can get the Bills at +135 at DraftKings.
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Bills vs. Chiefs Point Spread
The Chiefs are favored by 2.5 points after opening at -3.5, meaning the money is backing Buffalo. That’s mostly due to the defensive sides. The Bills have posted two shutouts the past three weeks – albeit against lesser competition – while the Chiefs have allowed 29-plus points in every game.
And that is the reason taking the points with Buffalo is the better play. The offenses get the edge, but KC’s defense may get fewer stops. I like Buffalo to win straight up, so of course I really like taking the points with the road dog. You can get the Bills +3 (-118) at FanDuel.
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Bills vs. Chiefs Totals
NFL sportsbooks have posted an Over/Under of 56.5 points for Week 5 Sunday Night Football, the highest total of the week. These teams average 67 points per game and nearly 840 yards per game.
This is a high total. But when it comes to picking a side to add to your Week 5 NFL picks, the Over looks like the way to go. While Buffalo’s defense has shut out two straight opponents, those opponents were the punchless Dolphins and Texans. This is Mahomes. KC’s defense hasn’t stopped anyone yet. Each team can hit 30-plus yet again. In fact, both teams should. You can get Over 56.5 at -110 with BetMGM.
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