Carson Wentz Trade Jolts Colts Super Bowl Odds, AFC Picture
The next quarterback domino has dropped as the Philadelphia Eagles have agreed to trade Carson Wentz to the Indianapolis Colts. In exchange, the Eagles will receive pick No. 85 in this year's draft along with a 2022 second-round pick that could become a first-round pick based on how many snaps Wentz plays in the 2021 season.
For the Colts, this will be their fourth straight season with a new quarterback in Week 1. It's a risky move for Indianapolis, but Wentz has shown flashes of dominance in the NFL. For the Eagles, they move on from a quarterback who was no longer a fit in Philadelphia and it signals the beginning of a new era.
Wentz Trade Boosts Colts Odds
After the Wentz acquisition, there is some buzz surrounding the Colts. With Philip Rivers retiring this offseason, the Colts were in a real jam at quarterback. They don't own a first-round pick inside the top-20 selections, so it would have been challenging for them to land a top-tier rookie quarterback. They have a ton of cap space, but the free-agent market isn't necessarily loaded with franchise-changing quarterbacks.
The Wentz trade is a bit of a risk for General Manager Chris Ballard, but it is a worthwhile one. Given the rest of their roster, the Colts are ready to compete now and Wentz played his best football under Frank Reich in Philadelphia. If he can get him to play anywhere close to what we saw in 2017, this will be a steal for the Colts.
After the trade, the Colts jumped from +1400 to +1100 to win the AFC despite the Chiefs and Bills looking like juggernauts. Indianapolis has the fifth-best odds to come out of the conference, with the Browns and Ravens also slightly ahead of them. This move doesn't put them in the favorites category yet, but rather squarely in the "contender" range in the AFC.
The Colts’ Super Bowl 2022 odds also saw a boost, up to +2200 at many sportsbooks from +2800 pre-trade. The Colts are also now the favorites to win the AFC South (-106) over the Titans after being second-choice at +120 a day ago.
That is fascinating, considering the Titans won it last year and the Colts haven't done so since 2014. This is expected to be one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL, with the Colts now expected to come out on top with Wentz under center.
Eagles Odds Already Near Bottom Before Deal
After the Wentz trade news, the odds for the Eagles to win the Super Bowl (+6600) and the NFC Championship (+2800) remained unchanged as oddsmakers were clearly expecting a trade. Only one team currently has worse odds to win the conference than the Eagles and that is the Detroit Lions at +5000.
The Eagles also have the worst odds to win the NFC East (+400) as oddsmakers are convinced this will be one of the league's worst teams in 2021. They will have a new Week 1 starter at quarterback (likely Jalen Hurts) and a gutted roster because of salary cap issues.
The Wentz trade was undoubtedly needed for the franchise, as they have now officially hit the "reset" button and are in a long-term rebuild.