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Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers Picks & MNF Betting Predictions

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 9 mins

Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers Picks & MNF Betting Predictions

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Middling teams struggling with consistent play look to right the ship on Monday Night Football in Week 9, as Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers host Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears.

The Steelers (5-3) have won three in a row but still sit third in the tough AFC North. All of their wins have been by eight points or less, the three defeats by nine or more. The Bears (3-5) are already four games behind the Packers in the NFC North. They’ve dropped three in a row, all by 10 or more points.

The best betting sites and betting apps in the US have Pittsburgh as a sizable 6.5-point favorite, with an Over/Under of 40 points in the latest Bears vs. Steelers odds. This is one of the NFL spreads that has moved dramatically, from an opening line of Steelers -5.

Check out the latest Bears vs. Steelers odds ahead of the matchup in Week 9.

Bears vs. Steelers Key Matchups

Justin Fields vs. Steelers DBs: Fields has seven INTs with just three TDs so far through the air. Pittsburgh has only two picks of opposing QBs; only the Jets (1) have fewer.

Najee Harris vs. Bears Run D: Harris is averaging 129.7 yards from scrimmage in the Steelers’ last three games. Chicago ranks a respectable 11th in receiving yards to RBs but 30th in yards allowed on the ground.

Ben Roethlisberger vs. Bears Pass D: Roethlisberger has thrown exactly one TD in six of the Steelers’ seven games, with two in the seventh. Chicago has allowed 14 TDs through the air in eight games.

RELATED: NFL Week 9 Odds & Betting Lines For Every Game

5 Key Bears vs. Steelers Stats

5.3: The sacks per game combined by the Steelers (2.7) and Bears (2.6), who rank fourth and fifth in the NFL, respectively.

23.1: The QBR rating for Bears rookie QB Justin Fields – the worst of any NFL starter.

41.4: The QBR for Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger – that ranks sixth-worst in the league and second-worst among non-rookies. Only Jared Goff has a lower ranking among veterans.

71.7: The yards gained rushing difference for the Steelers between their first three games (55.3), in which they went 1-3, and their last three games (127), in which they were 3-0.

127.4: The average pass yards per game by the Bears, after sacks. Not only is that dead-last in the NFL, it’s 31 yards less than any team in the last decade over a full season, and 42 less than the second-lowest in that span.

Bears vs. Steelers Weather Forecast

Monday night in Pittsburgh won’t add any weather-related drama to the evening. Expect cloudy skies but no rain, and temperatures at or around 50 degrees for kickoff at Heinz Field. It’s the start of an expected warming trend in the Steel City after highs in the 40s for most of the past week.

Bears vs. Steelers Player Props

Najee Harris, Over 81.5 Rushing Yards

Odds: -115 at DraftKings

Normally Harris is a good back for an all-purpose yards Over. Chicago is decent at guarding backs out of the backfield in the pass game. What they’re poor at is actually defending the run. Harris has 122, 81 and 91 yards rushing the last three weeks.

Darnell Mooney, Over 39.5 Receiving Yards

Odds: -115 at DraftKings

Mooney has at least 35 yards through the air in the last five games and 39-plus in four of them. Mooney has become Justin Fields’ security blanket – not Allen Robinson – and he should look to him often vs. the high-pressure Steelers D.

Ben Roethlisberger, Over 1.5 Passing TDs

Odds: -115 at DraftKings

Roethlisberger has at least one TD in every game this season. He can get to two here against a Chicago defense that’s allowed 14 TD passes, nearly two per game, including 12 to receivers.

RELATED: NFL Week 9 Picks & Best Bets For Every Game

Bears vs. Steelers Moneyline

The Steelers are at -275 on the moneyline, meaning it would take a $275 wager to win $100 in profit. Conversely, the underdog Bears are +220 (a $100 win means $220 in profit). Most moneyline picks at top sportsbooks are siding with Pittsburgh despite the odds.

Despite the inconsistency of both sides, these teams are trending in opposite directions The Bears have just three wins and one of them was due to back-to-back-to-back INTs by Joe Burrow in a three-point victory. Pittsburgh has at least found an identity on offense and its defense is playing better overall, and especially lately. Pittsburgh should get the home win here. You can get the Steelers -275 at DraftKings.

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Bears vs. Steelers Point Spread

The Steelers are laying nearly a TD on Monday night. Given Chicago’s inability to score, one can see why. But Pittsburgh is 0-3 against the spread when favored by any amount (3-1 ATS as an underdog).

The points come due to Chicago’s latest struggles. Fields is the worst-ranked QB in the NFL – and he’s the brightest spot of the offense right now. Chicago has lost its last three games by 10 or more and all five of their defeats have been by double figures. For those looking for a little Monday night NFL betting action, laying the points with the host Steelers is the best side. You can get the Steelers -6.5 (-110) at FanDuel.

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Bears vs. Steelers Totals

The Over/Under for Monday Night Football sits at 40, by far the lowest total of NFL Week 9. There’s one big reason for that, and it’s the Chicago Bears, who rank 31st in scoring and dead-last in yards gained. Just once since Week 1 has a Bears game hit the Over. But they’re not the only Under kings in this one. The Under is 5-1-1 in Steelers games, too.

This total is obviously very low for an NFL game, so is the Over worth one of your NFL picks for Week 9? The quick answer is no. The highest-scoring Pittsburgh game this season had just 44 points. Two Bears games have eclipsed 48, but that was due to shoddy defense and ill-timed turnovers, not Bears' scoring outbursts. The Under remains the safe bet, though it’s too low for my tastes.

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.