For the third time in four years, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs take on Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills in an AFC Playoffs showdown, on Sunday night to wrap up the NFC Divisional Round. 

It’s the seventh matchup between the AFC powerhouse teams. The last three games have been decided by a combined 13 points, including an overtime classic in the playoffs after the 2021 NFL season. 

This is the first matchup in Buffalo, however, since 2020 after five straight games in KC. Buffalo is at -3 in the latest Chiefs vs. Bills odds, with the number moving to -2.5 at some online sportsbooks. The Over/Under is at 45.5 points. 

Bookies.com veteran NFL handicapper Adam Thompson – who has hit on a whopping 62-64% of his NFL picks three years running, reveals his plays for the marquee game of the weekend. 

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills Odds

Chiefs vs. Bills Point Spread Pick

The KC offense, mediocre by its lofty standards, picked it up the last two games. If that keeps up, we can expect a Chiefs defense that ranks fourth vs. the pass and No. 2 in points and yards allowed to at least keep it close. 

KC outgained but lost 20-17 to Buffalo earlier this season in the Kadarius Toney offsides game, so we know they can hang, regardless of locale. 

A banged-up Gabe Davis is one less weapon the Chiefs must worry about, and a banged-up Bills LB unit opens the field for Travis Kelce. Give me Mahomes and a field goal, and find the best odds for it at BetMGM .

Chiefs vs. Bills Over/Under Best Bet

These teams played earlier this season and in last year’s regular season. The games totaled 37 and 44 points, below the 45.5-point Over/Under for Sunday night. 

The Under has trended all season in Chiefs games (13-5, 72.2%). When they take on higher-scoring teams such as the Bills – those averaging at least 25 ppg – the Under is a perfect 6-0. 

The Under has been the trend for Bills games against top-level defenses (allowing under 21 ppg), hitting on six of eight games. We’re expecting another close game and not a shootout. The Under will be a secondary play for SNF. Get the best NFL odds at DraftKings. 

Chiefs vs. Bills Moneyline Pick

KC is +124 on the moneyline, while Buffalo is at -148. We like the Chiefs to cover the spread, but what about winning outright? 

We like getting +3 for the Chiefs, especially given how close the games have been lately, and we’re talking Mahomes and the defending Super Bowl champions getting them. 

Twice in Mahomes’ career has he lost in the playoffs to a team, KC lost to in the regular season as well. In both instances, the margin was a field goal. We’ll stay with the points. 

Chiefs vs. Bills Top Player Props

Travis Kelce, Over 61.5 Receiving Yards 

Odds: (-115) with BetMGM

Kelce has been more inconsistent this year than in years past, but a streak of three-straight subpar games ended with a seven-reception, 71-yard effort vs. the Dolphins in the playoffs. Kelce had 6/83 vs. the Bills earlier this season and 8/108 against them last year. In two playoff matchups against the Bills, he’s averaged 10.5 receptions for 107 yards (and two TDs). Lock in Kelce over at BetMGM .

Josh Allen, Over 8.5 Rush Attempts

Odds: (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook

Allen has at least eight rush attempts in the last three games – he had 15 two weeks ago and 11 the week prior. Only the Rams and Lions have done a worse job of containing QBs than the Chiefs. He had 10 carries against KC in the first meeting (and only 32 yards) and in four career games vs. Andy Reid, he’s only had fewer than 10 attempts once (8). Lock in the Allen over at Caesars.