Chiefs vs Eagles Picks & Betting Predictions for NFL Week 4

By Eytan Shander Mar 14th, 2024 7:22 AM EDT

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This hasn’t been the expected start for the Kansas City Chiefs as they risk losing their third straight game of the season. In their way are the Philadelphia Eagles, who have yet to resemble anything near the dominant team we saw Week 1 in Atlanta.

We’ve already seen major movement with sportsbooks and betting apps on this particular line, as it began at KC -5.5 and is now -7. The Chiefs haven’t been great ATS, mainly because of larger numbers to cover, and large NFL spreads are already reflecting this movement.

In this case – and with other scenarios in NFL betting – we try and see how the movement works in the bettor’s favor.

The Chiefs defense seems to be the culprit as they continue to give up major points each week. The Eagles have issues everywhere, despite lining up a team on offense built with young talent. While the Chiefs may give up a lot of points to Philadelphia, there’s little chance the Eagles defense will get many stops.

The Chiefs are a 7-point road favorite against the Eagles. KC’s best odds on the ML are -319, where the best bet for the Eagles ML is +270. The total sits just under a key number of 55 at 54.5, reflecting a high-scoring contest.

Check out the latest Chiefs vs Eagles odds, betting lines, injury report and more.

Chiefs vs. Eagles Key Matchups

Chiefs vs. The Spread: KC has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last eight games. Part of that is the numbers to cover are larger than most other teams, and part of it is their defense is atrocious.

Jalen Hurts vs. Chiefs D: All three levels of the defense are available to be exploited. If Hurts and the Eagles offense looks halfway better than they did in Dallas, they should be OK here.

Andy Reid vs PHI Run D: We all know the big fella doesn’t really like to run the ball, almost like it’s a necessary evil in the game plan. He has a favorable matchup this week after the Cowboys gashed Philadelphia on the ground.

Chiefs vs. Eagles Key Stats

3: The Eagles called this many run plays for their running backs in Dallas. It's part of the reason they were rendered one-dimensional and eventually blown out on MNF. Be careful with your NFL picks as we may see drastic overcompensation with the Eagles offense.

28: This was the lone total we’ve seen in Philadelphia so far this year. It was a low-scoring game between the Eagles and 49ers.

3: With a loss on Sunday the Chiefs would start 1-3 with all three losses coming in a row. Betting sites seem to favor this not happening as KC is still loaded on offense.

9:3: Patrick Mahomes TD:INT ratio in three games this season. Despite the team’s struggles, Mahomes has been sharp on the field.

66: This is Mahomes’ rushing total through three games. This number is meaningless until you see he’s the second-leading rusher on the team, behind Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s 189 yards.

RELATED: NFL Week 4 Odds & Betting Lines For All 16 Games

Chiefs vs. Eagles Player Props To Consider

Patrick Mahomes, Over 2.5 TDs

Odds: -105 at DraftKings

The Eagles defense is dealing with injuries up front and a shaky linebacker core, they also are top-heavy in the secondary. Mahomes might throw for 4 TDs on Sunday.

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Jalen Reagor, Under 44.5 Receiving Yds

Odds: -110 at DraftKings

It’s only a matter of time – most likely this week – that Reagor falls out of favor with the coaching staff and Hurts. This number is too high for a stock that’s falling.

Travis Kelce to get 125+ Receiving Yards

Odds: +120 at PointsBet

The Cowboys TEs did whatever they wanted to the Eagles linebackers. Kelce will be open every single time.

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Chiefs vs. Eagles Moneyline

This is a huge number to lay on the moneyline but based on the Chiefs' record ATS, it may be the best play. Working it into a parlay as an anchor play seems to be the best strategy.

Both defenses aren’t much to hype as they have been major liabilities at best. But the Chiefs have an overwhelming advantage on offense, so that’s where the moneyline bet should play. Take the Chiefs -350 at BetMGM.

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Chiefs vs. Eagles Point Spread

As suspect as the Chiefs are ATS, they still have a decent number to cover here. This is more about my confidence in the Eagles' ability to match points with the Chiefs than anything else.

After watching them wilt in a shootout in Dallas, Philadelphia isn’t equipped to stop the Chiefs, nor keep up with their offense. Jalen Hurts and this Eagles offense look more lost than intact, while Mahomes looks fine, even for a 1-2 team. Bet the Chiefs -6.5 at DraftKings (-115).

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Chiefs vs. Eagles Totals

With all the talk about the defenses giving up tons of points, this total may seem a little low. It’s still a smart play to get in ahead of it moving to 55, but I think you will be safe going over either way.

The biggest factor here is how many points the Chiefs give up, no matter the opponent.

That bodes well for the Eagles to get a break or two, and turn that into a score. Take the Over 54.5 at FanDuel (-105).

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About the Author

Eytan Shander

More About Eytan

Eytan Shander writes about the NFL, NBA and more for Bookies.com. A 15-year radio veteran, he has worked nationally for Mad Dog Radio & NBC Sports Radio.