Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills Predictions, Picks & MNF Best Bets
Adam Thompson | 13 mins
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Two of the top three teams face off in a marquee NFL betting Monday Night Football showdown for Week 17, as Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals host Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.
It doesn’t get much more fun than this, with two of the top five offenses, not to mention two of the top five teams in the Super Bowl futures odds, facing off with the AFC’s No. 1 overall seed not yet locked up.
The Bills (12-3) are the current No. 1 seed thanks to a win over the Chiefs (also 12-3). The Bengals (11-4) will jump over Buffalo with a win on Monday, and they’ve already beaten KC this season.
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The latest Bills vs. Bengals odds have visiting Buffalo favored by a single point. The Over/Under expects scoring, with a total of 49.5 points. Ohioans will be able to wager on Ohio betting apps for this one, after the launch of sports betting in the Buckeye State on New Year's Day.
Bookies.com NFL handicapper Adam Thompson – on the way to his fourth-consecutive season of 60%-plus success for his NFL picks – reveals his plays for this massive AFC matchup.
Bills vs. Bengals Point Spread Pick
What a game to wrap up Week 17. It almost feels like people are sleeping on the Bills, who have now won six in a row. They have just three losses, all by a FG or less. Cincy has won seven straight and hasn’t fallen at home since Week 1.
If we’re talking matchups, however, Cincy’s lack of a consistent rush attack, and a mediocre pass defense, gives a big boost to Allen and the road team. Lock in Buffalo laying just a point.
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Bills vs. Bengals Over/Under Best Bet
The 49.5 points represents the second-highest total of the week, behind only the 52.5 in a matchup of the bottom-two defenses in the league (Bears at Lions). This one is more due to offense; combined, the Bills and Bengals average 54.9 ppg.
But the defenses are good, too. Buffalo ranks No. 2 at just 17.5 ppg allowed, while Cincy is ninth at 20.4. This could very well turn into a shootout, but the Under is 7-1 in Bills road games and it’s 7-0 when Cincy faces a team with a winning record. With Ohio sports betting now live, side with the Under on Monday night.
Bills vs. Bengals Moneyline Pick
Buffalo is just -115 on the moneyline, while host Cincinnati is -105. We like the Bills, the question is if taking the one point spread is worth saving five points of juice?
I think it is. My projections aren’t calling for a one-point decision, so we’ll lay the spread for closer to even money odds.
Best Bills vs. Bengals Player Props
Josh Allen, Under 46.5 Rushing Yards
Odds: -115 at BetMGM ➜
Allen has gained over 48 rushing yards seven times and been held under 48 yards eight times, so this number is right around his average. The Bengals aren’t great at sacking the QB – with 26 sacks, they rank 29th in the NFL – but they’re elite at containment. Cincy has allowed a league-low 45 QB runs and is giving up just 12.9 yards per game. That offers value to Allen finishing just under his usual total.
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Josh Allen, Over 240.5 Pass Yards
Odds: -120 at DraftKings ➜
Over the last six weeks, since their bye, the Bengals are allowing 257 pass yards per game, including outsized production from the likes of Kenny Pickett, Ryan Tannehill and Deshaun Watson. Allen’s numbers have fallen the second half of the year, but he did go for 304 yards just two weeks ago vs. the Dolphins, and has eight games above this total on the year. In six games against teams currently in a playoff position, Allen has averaged 315.5 ypg, with only one game under 300.