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Derek Carr Next Team Odds: Buccaneers, Panthers Likely Landing Spots

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 5 mins

Derek Carr Next Team Odds: Buccaneers, Panthers Likely Landing Spots

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Derek Carr went home after getting benched by the Las Vegas Raiders for the final two weeks of the 2022 NFL betting season. There will be no reconciliation. 

Carr posted a message soon after the benching, proud of his time with the Raiders and ready for a new chapter that doesn't include Las Vegas. The team confirmed the veteran QB was officially on the trade block. 

But on Super Bowl weekend, Carr told the team he would not accept a trade anywhere, forcing Vegas to straight-up release the veteran into free agency. 

Carr’s current contract – he’s owed $32.9 million next year and over $41 million the following two seasons – is a lot for a quarterback with just one winning campaign as a starting QB since 2016 and 28 INTs the past two seasons. He’s an undeniable talent, however, and his past production will have many teams interested. 

Bookies.com oddsmaker Adam Thompson has revealed his 2023 next team NFL futures odds for Carr. 

Derek Carr 2023 Team Odds

TeamOddsImplied Probability
Tampa Bay Buccaneers+25028.6%
Carolina Panthers+30025.0%
New Orleans Saints+40020.0%
New York Jets+62513.8%
Indianapolis Colts+10009.1%
Houston Texans+14006.7%
The Field+50016.7%

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Carr’s 2022 season was among his worst. He finished with 24 TDs in 15 games, but also had 14 INTs. His completion percentage (60.8%) was the lowest since his rookie year in 2014, and his interception percentage (2.8%) was the highest of his career. Across the board, Carr fell hard from a solid 2021 year in which Vegas went 10-7 and looked poised to challenge the Chiefs in the AFC West in 2022.

Instead, the Raiders went 6-11 (6-9 under Carr). Jarrett Stidham went 0-2 in his two starts, but passed for 584 yards and four TDs, along with 84 rushing yards.

Carr has a no-trade clause and has declared he won't accept any trade. He's gonna be a free agent. If the Raiders cut Carr prior to Feb. 15, they’ll be off the hook for the final two years of his contract (with a dead cap hit of about $6 million). 

February 15 is the key date in all of this, considering he was benched to avoid injury guarantees for 2023, and the fact that part of his 2024 salary is guaranteed for injury as of that date.

Injury hasn't been a concern during Carr's career, however. He started 92 straight games before the benching and had missed just two games in nine seasons with the Raiders. 

Potential Landing Spots For Derek Carr

The Buccaneers have Kyle Trask and that's about it. Tom Brady has officially retired, this time for good, and Tampa still has a veteran team built to compete in the present. Carr would remain with a contender in Tampa Bay as well. 

Head coach Todd Bowles didn't impress a lot of folks by guiding Brady to one of his worst seasons ever, both statistically and in terms of team results. He may prefer an experienced QB over the unproven Trask. They’re likely in the market for a signal-caller, which puts them top of our hypothetical Carr market on sports betting apps

Carolina once again seeks a QB to lead the way. Sam Darnold and PJ Walker don’t seem to be the long-term answer, and rookie Matt Corral, out all year due to injury, remains a project at this stage. New coach Frank Reich worked with Matt Ryan in Indy, he may be interested in a veteran to lead the Panthers for his first year as coach. 

The Saints nearly made the playoffs with Andy Dalton under center after he replaced the ineffective/injured Jameis Winston. It's possible neither QB is back in the Big Easy in 2023. Carr would be a good, fresh fit in this offense that has talent and a strong defense.  

New Orleans had Carr in for a visit but with no trade going to happen, it's a wonder how the Saints would make it work. At roughly -$57 million, no team is in worse shape in terms of salary cap.

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The Jets are an ascending team, going from 4-13 to 7-10 in Robert Saleh’s two seasons. They own a strong defense and growing offense but benched their own starting QB, Zach Wilson. 

Jets owner Woody Johnson has expressed no hesitation in spending big on a veteran QB. Many people think he's talking about Aaron Rodgers or even Lamar Jackson, but Carr is certainly in the mix. 

RELATED: Aaron Rodgers Next Team Odds

Ryan, Nick Foles and Sam Ehlinger each got starts for the Colts and for interim coach Jeff Saturday. Nothing worked. Would Carr want to be the next "veteran-on-his-way-out starting QB" in Indy for a team that has a defense and run game to compete? Indy owns the No. 4 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and many expect the team to draft its next QB.

The Texans also have a new coach (DeMeco Ryans). They have the No. 2 overall pick and aren’t sold on Davis Mills as the QB of the future. Carr would be the unquestioned QB1 but Houston is a rebuilder, not a contender. 

The Field has several contenders that could be in the market for a new QB as well. That includes the Titans and Commanders, teams that have QBs in place but could look to a new face. The Giants and, perhaps, the Packers, may or may not have their QB situations resolved by the Carr trade deadline. 

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.