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Derrick Henry Next Team Odds: New Favorites Emerge For Workhorse RB

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 6 mins

Derrick Henry Next Team Odds: New Favorites Emerge For Workhorse RB

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Few would dispute the claim that Derrick Henry has been the top running back in the NFL for the past four seasons. Since 2019, the Tennessee Titans' workhorse has led the NFL in rushes three times, and in rushing yards, yards per game, and touchdowns twice. 

But in the last two seasons, there have been signs of health concerns and decline. Now the Titans, who went 6-11 and have fired coach Mike Vrabel, may be seeking a new direction at running back as well. 

Henry will be 30 next season, on the old side for a starting RB. But his presence in the right backfield could be a jarring addition for teams lacking a balanced offense. 

Bookies.com oddsmaker Adam Thompson has used his resources of NFL contacts developed over 20 years covering the league to update his hypothetical NFL futures odds on Henry’s 2024 team.

Derrick Henry's Next Team Odds

TeamOddsImplied Probability
Cincinnati Bengals+37521.1%
Philadelphia Eagles+40020.0%
Houston Texans+42519.1%
New England Patriots+60014.3%
Las Vegas Raiders+85010.5%
Dallas Cowboys+10009.1%
Los Angeles Chargers+10009.1%
The Field+50016.7%

These odds are for entertainment purposes only and do not reflect odds that may be available on legal betting apps.

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Henry gained 2,027 yards with 17 TDs in 2020, firmly establishing himself as the top RB in the world. But in 2021, he missed half the season due to injury. 

He played 16 games in 2022 and led the league in attempts, but finished a distant No. 2 in yards and his yards per carry plummeted from 5.1 and 5.4 yards in ’19 and ’20 to 4.3 and 4.4 the last two seasons. The latter number ranked 25th in 2022. 

This year, he averaged just 68.6 yards per game, 28 fewer than just one year ago and 58 fewer yards than his his '20 season. His 4.2 yards per carry average was the lowest of his career. Make sure to bet on Henry using BetMGM $200 promo code BOOKIES, and get the most for your money.

But the Titans' offensive line was considered one of the worst in the NFL in most areas, QBs were sacked on nearly 11% of dropbacks, the third-highest rate and the team ranked 17th in yards per rush despite one of the more-dominant RBs after contact in history. Henry, for his part, played in all 17 games and led the NFL in rush attempts for the fourth time in his career. 

Henry's $16.4 million cap hit was the highest among all RBs in the NFL. The value of backs has diminished in recent years. That, with an increased age, likely means he'll need to temper expectations. His market value has been estimated at closer to $10 million annually, likely on a two-year deal. Henry has indicated he wants to find his "best shot" at winning a Super Bowl, a factor to consider.


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Several teams are going to have running backs coming off the books, including the New York Giants (Saquon Barkley, though the franchise tag could be used), Las Vegas Raiders (Josh Jacobs), Dallas Cowboys (Tony Pollard), Los Angeles Chargers (Austin Ekeler) and Cincinnati Bengals (Joe Mixon). All could be interest in adding a workhorse in Henry for 2-3 seasons, especially since many of those teams have established passing attacks. 

Of those teams, the Chargers ($-44 million in projected cap space) and Cowboys ($-14.3M) probably aren't going to be able to spend big on a back without making other high-priced subtractions, though Jim Harbaugh may love to make a splash with a hard-nosed runner, and Jerry Jones finds ways when there isn't a clear path. 

When it comes to winning now with money to spend and RB need, a few teams stand out. 

The Houston Texans are an up-and-coming team and rank No. 3 in salary cap space, allowing them the opportunity to add veteran help in the backfield. 

The Philadelphia Eagles want to win now, and D'Andre Swift is a free agent. Henry takes pressure off Jalen Hurts, and gives Henry perhaps his best shot at an elusive first championship. 

The Bengals might be at the top of the list. They’ll have the sixth-most in cap space, though pressing needs to re-sign key free agents may take a higher priority. Cincy’s reluctance to pay outgoing FA Joe Mixon could be a sign it’s not willing to put that much capital into the position. Or maybe it’s a Mixon thing.

The New England Patriots are embarking on a new era of football, and they'll want to overhaul one of bottom-performing offenses in the NFL. They have the third-most cap space and Rhamondre Stevenson has just one year left on his deal.  If the defense remains stout and the offense gets overhauled, the Pats could be a surprise team in 2024. 

When it comes to other teams with enough cap freedom to spend bigger on a back, only a few make much sense. 

The Raiders lose Jacobs to free agency but have the money to spend on the position. The Minnesota Vikings left Dalvin Cook walk to save money and it turned out to be a bust. Minnesota ranked 29th in rushing. The Vikings are going to want to upgrade over Alexander Mattison (3.9 yards per carry, zero TDs in 16 games) either via the draft or free agency. 

The Baltimore Ravens and New York Jets may need to make concessions to add Henry, but if Henry is serious about finally getting to a Super Bowl, the Ravens and Jets might be better than many of the aforementioned teams. The Field is led by the Ravens and Jets, as well as cash-strapped teams who may be in the market for RB depth, such as the Chargers, Green Bay Packers and Miami Dolphins

 

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.