Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers Predictions, Best Bets & Picks
Adam Thompson | 5 mins
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Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers can put a cap on a furious second-half run and clinch a playoff berth with a win on the Week 18 NFL betting edition of Sunday Night Football. So, too, maybe, can the Detroit Lions.
The Packers (8-8) have won four in a row and a fifth straight guarantees a fourth postseason spot in four seasons under Matt LaFleur. The Lions (8-8) will know by kickoff what the game means for them; if the Seahawks lose to the Rams Sunday afternoon, Detroit is in a win-and-in spot too. The Lions have won seven of nine, and beat the Packers 15-9 on Nov. 6.
Oddsmakers on sports betting apps believe Green Bay has the edge, putting it at -4.5 in the latest Lions vs. Packers odds. The Over/Under for total points is a sizable 49 points.
Bookies.com NFL handicapper Adam Thompson – who has hit on over 62% of his NFL picks in each of the last three years – reveals his top plays for the win-or-go-home clash.
Lions vs. Packers Point Spread Pick
These are two of the better-playing teams in the NFL right now, but the matchups are on the side of the Packers. Their run offense is overwhelming opponents and Detroit doesn’t have the players to slow it much. It also can’t take guys off covering the pass because the Lions rank 30th against that. Green Bay’s defense is No. 1 against the pass, bad news for Jared Goff, who is notoriously bad in bad weather.
Lambeau Field’s environment is going to be electric. Plus, we know the Packers are playing for their postseason lives. We know the Lions will compete, but if nothing is on the line, does it last four quarters? Rodgers is 3-0 in win-and-in season finales, with each victory by at least five points. Lay the points on the home team.
Lions vs. Packers Over/Under Best Bet
The Over is a modest 5-4 in Lions games during their strong nine-game run. But it’s 3-1 in road games. Meanwhile, the Over is on a 5-2 run in Packers games.
Detroit’s offense, however, averages a whopping 14 fewer points per game on the road (19.1 ppg) than it does at home. The Packers are allowing 17 ppg during their four-game run. Rodgers is painfully methodical at times, which slows the game down as well. All of it leans us toward the Under, as the secondary play.
Lions vs. Packers Moneyline Pick
Green Bay is -225 on the moneyline while Detroit is at +190 according to the latest NFL odds. On the surface, the Packers seem like the play. They’re at home, against a team they’ve owned over the years, and does anyone believe Goff is going to get over on Rodgers in this situation?
To be sure, we lean Packers here. But consider what Detroit has done lately. The Lions have covered in six straight as an underdog; we’re not going that route but the price on the Packers is too high to discount Detroit. Stay off the moneyline on Sunday night.
Best Lions vs. Packers Player Props
Aaron Jones, Over 62.5 Rushing Yards
Odds: -115 at DraftKings ➜
Jones loves himself some Lambeau Field turf. On the road this season, the Packers RB is averaging 48.6 yards per game. At home, that number explodes to 87.9 with four 100-yard efforts. The Lions allow 165 rush yards per game on the road; only the Bears give up more.
Jared Goff, Under 1.5 Pass TDs
Odds: -140 at DraftKings ➜
In nine games at Ford Field, Goff has thrown an impressive 23 touchdowns. But in seven road games, he has just six – and three of those came at Carolina in a blowout defeat. The other six games, he has three TDs. The Packers have given up a modest 21 pass TDs through 16 games, and four during their current four-game win streak.