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Joe Mixon Next Team Odds: Will Cincinnati Bengals Keep Mixon?

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 5 mins

Joe Mixon Next Team Odds: Will Cincinnati Bengals Keep Mixon?

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Joe Mixon has been the lead running back on the Cincinnati Bengals since being drafted in 2017. But few players are untouchable in today’s NFL, especially running backs. 

Mixon costs a pretty penny against the salary cap in each of the next two seasons. With other pressing issues to be addressed by the Bengals – namely, extensions for Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and possibly Tee Higgins – Mixon could be the odd man out in Cincy, sooner rather than later. 

"I don't know." That was the response from Bengals' Director of Player Personnel Duke Tobin, when asked if Mixon will be on the team in 2023.

With that in mind, Bookies.com oddsmaker Adam Thompson has used his resources of NFL contacts developed over 20 years covering the league to create his hypothetical NFL futures odds on Mixon’s 2023 team.

Joe Mixon Team For 2023 Season Odds

TeamOddsImplied Probability
Cincinnati Bengals+15040.0%
Chicago Bears+40020.0%
Arizona Cardinals+45018.2%
Miami Dolphins+60014.3%
Philadelphia Eagles+80011.1%
The Field+52516.0%

This market is for entertainment purposes only and has been created by the Bookies.com team. It is not currently available on Ohio betting sites.

Mixon had his best season in 2021, rushing for 1,205 yards and 13 TDs. But he still averaged a modest 4.1 yards per carry, and that number dipped to an awful 3.6 in 2022. 

The Bengals inked Mixon to a four-year, $48 million deal in 2020 but with get-outs in place that would allow a release this offseason. Mixon was a key part of the team’s rebuild and has stated he wants to be in Cincy, so it’s possible Mixon restructures his deal to make it more team-friendly. If the Packers and Aaron Jones can do it, so too can the Bengals and Mixon. 

Complicating matters is Mixon, who came into the league with a checkered past, could be facing a minimum six-game suspension for a recent off-the-field incident. Mixon was charged with aggravated menacing after he allegedly pointed a gun at a woman and threatened her on Jan. 21, the day before the playoff win vs. Buffalo. Charges were dismissed, though reports say charges could be refilled after another investigation.

Cutting or trading Mixon would create a dead cap hit of $5.5 million this year, though depending on when they cut or trade him, the cap hit could be spread across two years. If the Bengals cut or traded Mixon before June 1, they’d save roughly $7 million. They'd save about $10 million after June 1 ($5.5 million cap hit spread over next two years). The team is in a good spot cap-wise, at $35.5 million in space currently, so they don’t need to cut him.

But there are a lot of other players to be inked (as we mentioned: Burrow, Chase and Higgins) if Cincy is to remain a contender in the brutally tough AFC. The Bengals, who reached the AFC Championship game but lost to the Chiefs last season, are +1000 on Ohio betting apps to win Super Bowl 58. 

Where Could Mixon Land This Offseason?

For multiple reasons, the Chicago Bears are part of nearly every player odds piece out there. They not only have $30 million more cap space than any other team, they also have more needs than just about any other team; hence their “earning” of the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. With David Montgomery a free agent, Mixon would be a key piece on a Chicago offense lacking weapons. 

The Philadelphia Eagles are likely to lose Miles Sanders to free agency, opening up a spot on the depth chart. Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell aren’t the worst duo, and Philly, which is only $1 million above the cap, has other pressing needs on the defensive side. 

The Miami Dolphins lost nearly all of their rushing production to free agency, but at $15 million over the cap, they’re in no position to make a splash like this. 

The Arizona Cardinals seek a complement for James Conner, who has only started 6-13 games in each of his last five seasons due to injury. They’re one of the few teams with a semi-need at RB and the cap capital to make a move like this. 

RELATED: Derek Carr Next Team Odds

Damien Harris is a free agent for the New England Patriots, which makes them a possibility. They have the cap space to make such a move too. 

The Field includes teams that may be in the market for a RB but don’t absolutely need a Pro Bowler like Mixon. The New Orleans Saints would love to move on from the troubled Alvin Kamara, but cap issues limit their options. 

The Dallas Cowboys have decisions to make at RB. Tony Pollard is a free agent but may warrant the franchise tag. Ezekiel Elliott is under contract but may be a cap casualty. Could the Cowboys move on from both and instead add Mixon? 

The Carolina Panthers may lose D’Onta Foreman to free agency but Chuba Hubbard remains. They traded away Christian McCaffrey last season.

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been estabilshed as one of the nation's premier NFL and MLB handicappers, and his horse racing and PGA picks have produced major winners over the last 12 months.
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