The Rams acquired Mayfield last Tuesday and tossed him into their Thursday night game two days later. He promptly led them to a shocking 17-16 win over the Raiders. But let’s be honest, the Raiders had a lot to do with that. Green Bay has the NFL’s top-rated pass defense. The last time Mayfield was at Lambeau – nearly one year ago to the day, with Cleveland – he tossed four INTs. 

Suffice to say that neither of these teams has been a sound bet for most of 2022. They’re a combined 9-16-1 against the spread. So is there a side worth backing here? Actually, yes, and quite so. With temps in the teens for kickoff, expect motivated Green Bay to jump ahead and pour it on. Back the Pack vs. the spread. 

The Packers offense has been a disappointment, but the team’s last four games have hit the Over. The average total score was 55.8 ppg. This is the third total under 40 in a Rams game; the last two both went Over. 

But we prefer the Under in this one. Green Bay’s issue has been stopping the run. Los Angeles can’t run the ball. The Rams’ strength is slowing the run, which is what the Packers prefer to do. L.A. is going to find it difficult to score, the Packers won’t. But nobody’s hitting 30 points here in the bitter cold. The Under is a secondary play on MNF. 

The Packers are posted at -305 on the moneyline, meaning it would take a $305 wager to win $100 in profit. The Rams are at +255 (bet $100 to win $255 in profit). Certainly, we’re not backing the Rams, who snapped a six-game losing streak last week in improbable fashion. 

But the Packers at this price are a little too risky. They’re on a 2-2 SU run but lost five straight prior to that, including home defeats by the Lions and Commanders. We think the Packers roll, but the risk is too high at this price. Avoid the moneyline and focus on other areas. 

Tyler Higbee, Under 3.5 Receptions

Odds: -150 at DraftKings

Higbee managed just three targets and two receptions in Baker Mayfield’s first game as Rams QB in Week 14. It was his second straight week with just two catches and the fifth time in 12 games. The Packers rank No. 1 in the NFL in fewest receptions and yards allowed to tight ends. All the trends point Under. 

A.J. Dillon, Over 10.5 Receiving Yards

Odds: -115 at BetMGM

After averaging only 1.5 receptions per game through 11 weeks, Dillon has three catches in each of the last two games, for 24 and 26 yards. The Rams are tough vs. the run but very susceptible vs. the pass. Look for Green Bay to get the ball to both Dillon and Aaron Jones in the pass game. Dillon’s prep total is half that of Jones and may take just 1-2 catches.