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How Much Would You Make Betting On Matt Ryan Each Week?

Bill Speros for Bookies.com

Bill Speros  | 13 mins

How Much Would You Make Betting On Matt Ryan Each Week?

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Quarterback Matt Ryan joins the Indianapolis Colts this NFL betting season after 14 years with the Atlanta Falcons. He’s won everything but a Super Bowl. And even then, he managed to give his team a 25-point lead before Tom Brady morphed into Tom Brady.

Ryan and his Colts begin the season Sept. 11 at Houston. In that game, the Colts carry the biggest line of Week 1 as 8.5-point favorites. How well has Ryan done against NFL spreads, and how much money would you have won betting on him each week of his career so far? Let's find out...

As a starter, Ryan is 113-117-2 against the spread at sportsbooks in his career, meaning he has covered in 48.7% of his starts. That’s a dip from his 124-108 overall record in 232 starts. These numbers include his 10 playoff appearances.

RELATED: NFL Week 1 Picks, Predictions And Best Bets To Back

Backing Ryan A Losing Proposition

How Much Would You Make Betting On Matt Ryan Each Week? 1

Using our system of betting $100 on Ryan ATS each week of his career with the industry standard -110 line per point-spread bet available on most betting sites and betting apps, those who backed Ryan weekly are down $1,428 over the course of his career.

Not all spreads are created equally. In this instance we are using records against the spread for each game Ryan has started, according to Pro Football Reference.

This season, the Colts are a strong value play if you believe Ryan can be the difference in Indy. The Colts are priced at +2000 with BetMGM to win Super Bowl 57. That same site has the Colts at +1100 to win the AFC, and favored at -140 to win the AFC South.

Let’s take a quick look at the projected 2022 win totals and playoff odds for the Colts and Ryan. All bets in these two categories are voided if the Colts do not play a full 17-game NFL schedule.

Win Total Odds
Over 10 Wins -105 at DraftKings
Under 10 Wins +110 at DraftKings
Make Playoffs
Yes -190 at DraftKings
No +150 at DraftKings

Odds via DraftKings and current as of publication.

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Tennessee won the AFC South last season with the best record in the conference. The Colts are priced right to win the division and make the playoffs. Their out-of-division schedule includes winnable home games against Washington, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and a road game at the Giants. They have a pair of toss-up road games at Minnesota and New England.

If the Colts can go 4-2 in the division, take the over on 10 wins at -105 at DraftKings, and also wager on the Colts winning the AFC South at +150 at the same site.

Matt Ryan 2022 Futures & Prop Bets To Watch

How Much Would You Make Betting On Matt Ryan Each Week? 2

Ryan failed to throw for more than 4,000 yards last season for the first time since 2010. That was as much an indictment of his offensive line and the Falcons lack of talent or depth, as it was any drop-off in the QB’s abilities. His paltry 20 TDs tied his career low (his rookie season).

Here are some related NFL futures and prop bets featuring Ryan, and how best to play them this season.

Matt Ryan Props: Passing TDs

Here are the odds on total passing touchdowns for Ryan this season:

Matt Ryan Passing TDs Odds
Over 25.5 +100 at DraftKings
Under 25.5 -120 at DraftKings

Check out our DraftKings sportsbook review for more information.

Ryan is amazingly durable. He has missed only three starts in his 13 seasons. He’s gone over this number in four of his past five seasons. His INT-to-ATT ratio was just 2.1% in 2021.

We back Ryan going over 25.5 TDs passing at +100 with DraftKings for the 2022 season.

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Matt Ryan Props: Passing Yards

Here are the odds on total passing yards for Ryan this season:

Total Odds
Over 3,900.5 Yards -110 at DraftKings
Under 3900.5 Yards -110 at DraftKings

Ryan threw for 4,581 yards in 2020 before last season’s drop off to 3,968. He missed his total of 4,450.5 yards in 2021 by a significant margin. The shift to Indy, with its viable running game, is going to give Ryan far more options than he had in Atlanta. He doesn’t have any superstar targets in terms of wideouts, but he’ll mix the ball around and get all his targets involved. And when he’s not playing the Patriots in the Super Bowl, Ryan rarely makes mistakes.

Among the QBs with higher projected totals than Ryan this season: Kirk Cousins, Mac Jones, and Trevor Lawrence. Ryan will earn his passing yards in smaller increments in Indy. He’ll also be on the field longer and be playing with a lead more often than he did in Atlanta. If Ryan makes 17 starts, he’ll need to average 230 yards to hit this target. That’s doable. Take the over on 3900,5 yards passing for Ryan at -110 with DraftKings.

About the Author

Bill Speros for Bookies.com
Bill Speros
Bill Speros is an award-winning journalist and editor whose career includes stops at USA Today Sports Network / Golfweek, Cox Media, ESPN, Orlando Sentinel and Denver Post.