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New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons Picks & TNF Predictions

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 8 mins

New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons Picks & TNF Predictions

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The surging New England Patriots look to win a fifth-straight game when they head south to face the Atlanta Falcons in an intriguing Thursday Night Football showdown for Week 11. Mac Jones and the Patriots (6-4) are playing their best ball right now. The same can’t be said of the Falcons (4-5), licking their wounds after losing by 40 to the Cowboys last Sunday.

Sportsbooks have New England as a six-point road favorite, this after most betting sites and some top betting apps, opened the game at Patriots -4.

Take a look at Falcons vs. Patriots odds, injury report, betting lines and more.

Patriots vs. Falcons Key Matchups

Cordarrelle Patterson vs. Patriots Front 7: New England ranks 31st in receptions allowed and receiving yards allowed to RBs this season. Patterson ranks No. 2 on the Falcons in targets, receptions and yards, and No. 1 in receiving TDs.

Kyle Pitts vs. Pats LBs: Pitts ranks No. 1 above Patterson in the above statistics, but New England has been successful in stopping opposing TEs, allowing a league-low 2.9 receptions to them per game.

Patriots WRs vs Falcons DBs: The Falcons allow the second-most TDs per game to receivers, but rank 11th in yards allowed. Mac Jones’ top three targets this season are WRs.

RELATED: NFL Week 11 Odds & Betting Lines For All Games

5 Key Patriots vs. Falcons Stats

1.4: Interceptions per game by the Patriots’ defense, the third most in the league.

2: The rushing TDs allowed by the Patriots defense this season, the fewest in the NFL. The Falcons are tied with the Vikings and Texans for fewest rush TDs.

7: TDs by Patriots TE Hunter Henry in the last seven games, this after having zero the first three games.

11: The plus-turnover differential for New England in their six wins, compared to a minus-7 turnover differential in its four losses.

52.0: The yards per game receiving for Kendrick Bourne, tops on the Patriots. Only one other player, Jakobi Meyers (48.3), has more than 36 ypg.

Patriots vs. Falcons Weather Forecast

Weather won’t be a factor inside Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta, where it will be without rain and a balmy 72 degrees. Of course, if there was no roof on the Falcons’ home field, it wouldn’t matter for this night. The Atlanta forecast calls for dry skies and a high of 72 degrees – though a low of 37.

Patriots vs. Falcons Player Props

Matt Ryan, Over 248.5 Pass Yards

Odds: -115 at DraftKings

Ryan has thrown for under 150 yards in two of Atlanta’s last three games. But he’s thrown for 280-plus yards in five of the other seven. The Falcons have four wins and Ryan has gone for 325-plus for three of them. That’s their key and he needs to pile up the stats, even if it takes 40-plus attempts (which he’s had four times)

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Mac Jones, Under 255.5 Pass Yards

Odds: -115 at DraftKings

The Falcons’ defense is not good, but it’s allowing a middle-of-the-pack 256 ypg through the air. Jones has thrown for over 231 yards just once in the last six games and that was vs. the Jets. The Patriots have won five of those games, so slinging it isn’t in Bill Belichick’s plan.

Mac Jones, Over 4.5 Yards Rushing

Odds: -110 at BetMGM

Jones doesn’t run if he doesn’t have to, but he’s capable. The last two weeks combined he’s had two runs for four yards, but the two games prior he had seven for 29. Here he faces a Falcons team that doesn’t keep tabs on QBs well. Only three teams allow more rush yards per game to QBs.

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Patriots vs. Falcons Moneyline

The Patriots are -260 on the moneyline, meaning a $260 wager would win $100 in profit. On the other side, the Falcons are at +215 ($100 wins $215 in profit).

Certainly New England has looked the better team lately. But the Falcons have been confounding. Prior to getting steamrolled by the Cowboys, they beat the Saints in New Orleans. Still, the Pats overall have been better this year, in every facet of the game. The questionable status of RB Cordarrelle Patterson is less likely to be as damaging as that of WR Calvin Ridley. Atlanta has just one home win all year and it was vs. the Jets. We’ll stay away from the moneyline.

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Patriots vs. Falcons Point Spread

When it comes to NFL spreads on Thursday night, not all teams have been great at covering. The Patriots have been an exception, on a 6-2 ATS run on the weeknight. And they’ve dominated the Falcons over the years, covering in six straight, including their last four trips to Atlanta.

Still, this is a lot of points for a road favorite led by a rookie QB. On the other side, Matt Ryan has either flourished or been terrible. In three of the last five games, Ryan has had 336-343 yards passing. In the other two, under 150. New England should win, but the back-door cover is in play depending on which Ryan shows up. Those looking for a Thursday night side as part of your NFL picks should consider Atlanta, but we’ll be staying off it.

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Patriots vs. Falcons Totals

The Over/Under for Thursday Night Football is 46.5 points, a middle-of-the-pack number. It’s also a number that New England games have launched over in four of the five past outings. Only one game in that span has been under 51 points.

We know Atlanta can score as well, albeit inconsistently, and they struggle to defend. The Under has trended in Falcons games due to their offensive issues, but the Over is the winner in five of six Pats matchups. The Under has been profitable on Thursdays but the Over is the worthy play for your NFL betting Week 11 Thursday lineup. You can get Over 46.5 (-115) at DraftKings.

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.
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