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Isla Knightley for Bookies.com

By Isla Knightley | | 6 mins

New England Patriots At Miami Dolphins Free Picks & Betting Predictions

New England Patriots At Miami Dolphins Free Picks & Betting Predictions

The New England Patriots are in; the Miami Dolphins are out. Sometimes, sport doesn’t seem fair. The Dolphins were brimming with hope and riding one of the best winning streaks into Week 17 only to hit a brick wall in Nashville. And just like that, all the good work they did was undone. To add insult to injury, the Dolphins were thoroughly outplayed, outmuscled and outscored by the Tennessee Titans in a lopsided 34-3 result.

The Patriots snapped a two-game losing streak in the most convincing fashion, beating the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars 50-10 at Foxborough. When all was said and done, the closing 17-point spread across multiple top-rated sportsbooks seemed laughable.

Given the contrasting fortunes of these AFC East rivals, it should come as no surprise that the Patriots are the favorites with multiple betting apps that deal in NFL action legally in the United States. The Patriots and Dolphins have come full circle since their first meeting, which the Dolphins clinched ever so narrowly, 17-16, in Week 1. A lot has changed, not least of all their playoffs status.

As it were, the Patriots are spotting the Dolphins anywhere between 6.5 to 7 points, depending on the preferred betting sites in question. And to all intents and purposes, the Patriots look like the smart bet to come through both with the win and the cover.

Take a look at Dolphins vs Patriots odds, injury report, betting lines and more.

Patriots vs Dolphins Key Matchups

Patriots Run Game vs. Dolphins Run Defense: The Patriots’ run game has made significant inroads this season and ranks eighth in the league with 126.1 yards per game. The Dolphins' run defense ranks tenth in the league with 108.3 yards per game allowed.

Mac Jones vs. Tua Tagovailoa: The Dolphins’ second-year quarterback has the 1-0 edge over the rookie, but the latter has made an impact this season. So much so, that Jones has emerged as one of the top bets to win the AP Offensive Rookie of the Year award.

Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense: Miami’s lack of a viable run game could be the decider. The Dolphins are 31st with merely 85.8 yards rushing per game. Their offense averages a paltry 19.3 points per game. The Patriots defense is allowing merely 16.9 points per game.


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Patriots vs Dolphins Key Stats

15-10: Tua Tagovailoa has a 15-to-10 touchdown to interception ratio. In the last three games, Tagovailoa has a 3-to-4 touchdown to interception ratio.

13: Mac Jones ranks 13th overall in the league with 3,540 passing yards to his credit over 16 starts. Jones also has 21 touchdowns to 12 interceptions and an average passer rating of 92.5.

12.5: Patriots linebacker Matthew Judon has 12.5 sacks to his credit, which puts him seventh in the league’s standings.

26-16: Bill Belichick has a 26-16 lifetime record against the Miami Dolphins since becoming the Patriots head coach in 2000. The Dolphins have won the last two meetings in a row though.

94: PK Jason Sanders has put up 94 points for the Dolphins through 16 games, which is an average of 5.9 points per game.


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Weather Forecast

The weather forecasts calls for very un-Miami-like weather with light rain and 17 mph winds.


Patriots vs Dolphins Moneyline

Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins spoiled Mac Jones’ NFL debut by handing the rookie quarterback a loss in his first stint as the Patriots’ chosen starter. The loss was bitterly disappointing for Jones, especially when taking into consideration the divisional dimension and the history between the two former Alabama Crimson Tide teammates. Nevertheless, the lessons learned were invaluable.

Jones and the Patriots went through more growing pains in the first six weeks of the season before they finally started to turn things around. Fast forward to Week 18, and they’re a stellar 10-6-0 on the season and assured of a spot in the playoffs. Few would have predicted that when the season started, never mind bet on it.

The job isn’t done yet, though.

The stakes are high for the Patriots in this season finale. A win over Miami combined with a loss by the Buffalo Bills - a long-shot bet, if ever there was one, as the Bills have a date against the New York Jets – could deliver the AFC East title back to New England and clinch a top-four seed in the AFC playoffs. Slim though the possibility might be, one has to believe Belichick will have the Patriots up for this game as a result.

Thus, quite rightly, Miami is tipped as the considerable underdog across the NFL betting board. Yes, the Dolphins are 7-1 SU in their last eight games, but if the loss to the Titans proved anything, it’s that the seven-game win streak was wholly deceiving. It was built mostly on inferior opposition. A fact the Titans exposed along with Miami’s shortcomings in all facets of the game.

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Patriots vs Dolphins Point Spread

NFL spreads corner this game with the Patriots. Caesars Sportsbook, BetMGM and DraftKings have rolled out a 6.5-point spread, while FanDuel is currently showing a 7-point spread for this game. Depending on which way one slices this game for NFL picks, shopping around for the best line could make the difference.

It’s worth noting that markets always had the Patriots favored in this game. Lookahead lines projected the Patriots as the 2.5-point road chalk before Week 17. After the Patriots’ big win over the Jaguars and the Dolphins’ dud, the markets reopened with the Patriots at -5.5. The line moved quickly as the public bet up the Patriots to -6.5. Clearly, the Patriots to win and cover this game is the consensus bet of the week.

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Patriots vs Dolphins Totals

The total for this game is surprisingly low with most markets showing 40 points at the time of writing. That’s up from an opening 39.5 points, which books like Caesars and DraftKings took to press. Perhaps, oddsmakers took a cue from the first meeting between these AFC East foes. Whatever the thinking may be behind this rather understated total, the public isn’t buying it.

Early consensus betting shows that the public is betting the Over. If this trend continues during the week, the line is likely to move higher. For those looking to cash on the Over, now is the best time to pull the trigger. Those that fancy the Under for NFL picks might consider waiting for a higher number before wagering.

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About the Author

Isla Knightley for Bookies.com
Isla Knightley
Isla, a sports journalist and betting expert, covers several sports, including the NFL, as well politics. She joined Bookies.com in 2021 after contributing to other betting sites.