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Next New England Patriots Head Coach Odds: Vrabel Emerge As Contender Against Jerod Mayo

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 5 mins

Next New England Patriots Head Coach Odds: Vrabel Emerge As Contender Against Jerod Mayo

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It is pretty easy to make the argument that Bill Belichick is the best NFL coach that’s ever lived. The six Super Bowl rings are a good place to start. 

But in the ultra-fickle world of NFL coaching, nobody – not even the GOAT – is untouchable. On Jan. 11, Belichick and the Patriots parted ways after a 4-13 season, the worst campaign Belichick has ever been a part of in 28 years as a head coach. 

Worth noting: Belichick was also the general manager who decided Tom Brady wasn’t worth the two-year, $50 million offer he was seeking. 

A new era dawns in New England. Bookies.com veteran oddsmaker Adam Thompson has updated his NFL odds for the 2024 Patriots head coach gig.

Next New England Patriots Head Coach Odds

CoachOddsImplied Probability
Jerod Mayo (Patriots LB Coach)+17536.4%
Mike Vrabel (Titans HC)+22530.8%
Kellen Moore (Chargers OC)+60014.3%
Frank Smith (Dolphins OC)+75011.8%
Zac Callahan (Bengals OC)+14006.7%
Ben Johnson (Lions OC)+15006.3%
The Field+65013.3%

Odds above have been created by Bookies.com and do not reflect odds that may be available on legal betting apps.

Since Brady left for Tampa Bay and immediately led the Buccaneers to a Super Bowl championship (ouch), the Patriots have teetered on the edge of playoff contention with a combination of Cam Newton, Mac Jones, and Bailey Zappe under center. They haven't been considered a title contender, and this year things appear to have bottomed out. Only the hapless Carolina Panthers had a worse record in the NFL this season. 

NBA Sports Boston analyst Tom Curran went on the Rich Eisen Show and detailed a myriad list of reasons why Belichick isn’t the invincible emperor he once was. It begins with the Brady negotiations but includes questionable coaching hires and a general sense of inorganization. The latest, a failure to bring in DeAndre Hopkins to fill a vital WR1 role, didn't help, and the offense finished 31st in scoring and 30th in yards allowed. We can't blame Mac Jones for everything.  

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Who's In Line For The Patriots’ Next Head Coach Gig?

Most fingers point to Jerod Mayo, the linebackers coach and former standout himself at the position. Kraft extended Mayo’s contract as other teams came sniffing, and many believe he’s the heir apparent for the role. 

Mike Vrabel was considered a very real contender for the Pats job - if it opened up, and if the Titans parted ways with their six-year head coach. Vrabel was let go by the Titans the Tuesday following the regular season finale. 

The Kraft family is known to have a fondness for Vrabel, a Patriots Hall of Fame inductee. Vrabel played for the Patriots for eight seasons as a linebacker and was the NFL Coach of the Year in 2021. There's a real chance Vrabel ends up on the staff somewhere, and the head coach is a real possibility. 

There’s a chance the Pats go from old school to new school with their next coach, one who knows the ins and outs of the modern NFL game. New England ranked seventh in yards allowed and at one point allowed a total of 13 points in three straight games. New England still lost them all. 

Among the other candidates:

Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is guiding the Lions' offense to its best season in decades. The Lions ranked fifth in scoring haven't averaged this many yards per game since 1997. Last year, in Johnson's first year as offensive coordinator, the Lions ranked fifth in scoring for the first time since 2011. At age 37, Johnson might be the most sought-after coordinator for head coaching vacancies this off-season. 


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Kellen Moore left the Dallas Cowboys after four seasons of OC duties and begins a new chapter with the same title for the L.A. Chargers. The time is coming for Moore, 35, the question is when. The said could be said for Dolphins offensive coordinator Frank Smith, 42, whose creative style has made Miami one of the more-entertaining, and successful, offenses the past two seasons. 

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Cincinnati Bengals head coach Zac Taylor has effused praise on his offensive coordinator Brian Callahan to anyone that will listen. Callahan, 39, has coaching in his blood (his father Bill Callahan was head coach of the Raiders and Nebraska) and helped keep the Bengals' offense humming with rookie Jake Browning at QB, after Joe Burrow was lost for the year. A head coaching gig will come sooner than later. 

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The Field includes Dan Quinn, 52, defensive coordinator of the Cowboys. He was the NFL Assistant Coach of the Year for 2021 and guided the Falcons to their only Super Bowl berth in history. It also includes a number of head coaching candidates that are due, including Commanders offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris, Rams QB coach Zac Robinson, Panthers defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero. 

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.