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New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Odds, TNF Best Bets & Predictions

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 6 mins

New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Odds, TNF Best Bets & Predictions

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Teams with offensive issues – and we’re putting that mildly – face off in a record-breaking Thursday Night Football matchup as the Pittsburgh Steelers host the New England Patriots. 

The Over/Under is just 30 points, making it the lowest total for an NFL game since sports betting became widely legalized in 2018. The latest Patriots vs. Steelers NFL odds have Pittsburgh at -6 on the spread priced like that on several sports betting apps.

New England (2-10) has dropped five in a row and is now going with Bailey Zappe at QB. Pittsburgh (7-5) lost its own QB, Kenny Pickett, to injury last week, so Mitch Trubisky gets the ball as he looks to keep the Steelers in the AFC postseason chase. 

Bookies.com veteran NFL handicapper Adam Thompson – who has hit on a whopping 62-64% of his NFL picks three years running, reveals his plays for the AFC showdown. 

Patriots vs. Steelers Odds

Patriots vs. Steelers Point Spread

The Steelers are favored by nearly a TD and one can see why. The Pats became the first team in decades to hold three straight opponents to 10 points or less – and lose all three games. Only two other times have they been underdog by six points or more; they lose those games by 14 and 35 points.

Trubisky has had a wild career trajectory, but he’s one of the more-capable backup QBs in the NFL. With the way Pickett has been playing, don’t expect a big dropoff. Pittsburgh can probably cover by getting to 17 points. We’re leaning the Steelers, but it’s not the top play of TNF.

Patriots vs. Steelers Over/Under

Combined, the Steelers and Patriots are allowing just 23.4 ppg over the past three weeks. Think that’s low? Combined, they’re scoring just 16.3 ppg. As historically low as this Over/Under might be, recent average production falls roughly two TDs short. 

It feels almost dirty to take the Under on such a low number, but Zappe and Trubisky against the stingiest defenses in the land doesn’t sound like trends are going to be broken. That Stevenson is also out for the Pats makes it even less likely. We’re playing the Under on Thursday night. 

Patriots vs. Steelers Moneyline

Two stellar defenses, two inept offenses, there’s not a lot to love on either side. But that especially goes for the Patriots, who are +205 on the moneyline (wager $100 to win $205 in profit).

The Pats need a strong run game to compete – statistically, New England’s run game presents the only real offensive advantage for either side – it’s perhaps the only real advantage for either side and leading rusher Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) won’t play. 

Trubisky is competent, and there are more weapons, and more potential, on Pittsburgh’s side. The Steelers have a long history of success in prime time home games, and it isn’t likely to change here. 

The -250 price is hefty (wager $250 to win $100 in profit), and we’re going Under as our top play. But for those uncomfortable with the low total and with some extra funds, Steelers moneyline is a solid bet

Patriots vs. Steelers Top Player Props

Ezekiel Elliott, Over 80.5 Total Yards 

Odds: -114 at FanDuel

Elliott will be the man in the backfield for the Patriots with Stevenson out. We think of Elliott as broken down from his time in Dallas, but he’s only 28. In four games that he’s been featured more for the Pats (10 or more carries), he’s amassed 88, 92, and 87 total yards for three of them. 

His importance in the passing game has improved the last four games, as well, so we’ll take the Over on total yards for Elliott, with the best odds found at FanDuel. 

Bailey Zappe, Under 155.5 Pass Yards

Odds: -115 at DraftKings

Zappe had a chance to prove his potential last week against the last-ranked pass defense in the NFL. He went 13-of-25 for 141 yards and was blanked vs. the hapless Chargers defense. 

The Steelers’ D is far from hapless. With Demario Douglas out and JuJu Smith-Schuster and DeVante Parker banged up, expect a huge lean on the run game and short passes. It’s the only way New England stays in it. Go with the Under for Zappe at DraftKings. 

About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.