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New Orleans Saints At Tampa Bay Buccaneers Picks & SNF Predictions

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 7 mins

New Orleans Saints At Tampa Bay Buccaneers Picks & SNF Predictions

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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers can put a cap on their NFC South division title on Sunday Night Football when Tom Brady and Co. host Taysom Hill and the New Orleans Saints in a big Week 15 matchup.

The Buccaneers (10-3) own a commanding four-game lead in the South, while the Saints (6-7) are one of five NFC teams at 6-7, only one of which would be in the postseason if it started this week. New Orleans handled Tampa Bay 36-27 on Halloween, but the Saints have won just one game since, and that was against the Jets.

Betting sites and most betting apps have host Tampa Bay at -11.5 in the latest Saints vs. Buccaneers NFL spreads range, up from -11 opening odds.

Take a look at Saints vs Buccaneers odds, injury report, betting lines and more.

Saints vs. Buccaneers Key Matchups

Alvin Kamara vs. Bucs Defense: The Saints are 6-0 this season when Kamara gets at least 15 carries and three receptions, and 0-7 when he doesn’t.

Taysom Hill’s Arm vs. Tampa Bay DBs: The Bucs allow 268 ypg passing. Hill had 264 yards in his first start this season (a loss, and a poor 44.2 QB rating) and 175 in his second (win, 96.3 rating).

Rob Gronkowski vs. Saints LBs: The Bucs are 5-0 when Gronk gains over 55 receiving yards. New Orleans ranks ninth in receptions allowed to tight ends, eighth in yards and fourth in TDs.

RELATED: NFL Week 15 Odds & Betting Lines For All Games

5 Key Saints vs. Buccaneers Stats

0: Tom Brady’s win percentage in the regular season vs. the Saints (0-3) as Tampa’s QB. He’s 24-5 vs. everyone else.

37.2: The Saints’ leader in receiving yards per game gets only 37.2 ypg this year. It’s RB Alvin Kamara.

62: Receptions for Tampa RB Leonard Fournette, the most of any RB this season. He averages 6.8 yards per reception; the Saints allow 9.4 yards per catch to RBs.

63.7: The yards allowed on the ground by the Buccaneers to running backs, the fewest in the NFL.

93: Receptions allowed by the Buccaneers defense to running backs, the second-most in the NFL this season. Alvin Kamara had amassed 81-plus receptions in all four years prior to this one.

Saints vs. Buccaneers Weather Forecast

Sunday night in Central Florida will be lovely for this time of year. Sunday’s high should be in the low-80s, and while the temperature will drop by kickoff, it won’t dip outside of the 70s. There is a 40% chance of scattered rain showers, but nothing expected that will alter the zip of the ball in the air.

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Saints vs. Buccaneers Player Props

Alvin Kamara, Over 87.5 Total Yards

Odds: -115 at DraftKings

Kamara and QB Taysom Hill have played together one game so far. In it, Kamara received 27 carries for 120 yards, in addition to four receptions for 25. The Bucs aren’t easy to run against, but New Orleans’ priority will be to get Kamara touches, especially with coach Sean Payton out.

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Taysom Hill, Longest Rush Over 13.5 Yards

Odds: -115 at DraftKings

Hill has rushed 11 times in each of his two starts, and each time he’s broken at least one long run. His longest runs in each game have gone for 44 and 24 yards. The Bucs have allowed the sixth-most rush yards to QBs. We just need a single decent one.

Rob Gronkowski, Over 51.5 Yards

Odds: -110 at FOX Bet

Gronk has had 58-plus receiving yards in all but one game he’s played this season (he had two TDs in the game he failed to hit the mark, too). New Orleans is above average in slowing TEs but the Bucs have too many weapons to key in on any one player, and Gronk has at least one 20-plus yards reception in his last six games.

Saints vs. Buccaneers Moneyline

When it comes to NFL betting on the moneyline, favored Tampa Bay is a hefty -550 on the moneyline, while New Orleans is set at +400.

Clearly the Buccaneers are the better team, clearly they’re playing better right now, and their home track record – unbeaten, all but two wins by at least 20 points – points to, at worst, another Tampa victory. Taysom Hill is an x-factor and the Saints are an elite run-stopping team, so the price on Tampa Bay is too high. But we’re not backing a Saints W here, either.

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Saints vs. Buccaneers Point Spread

The Buccaneers are favored by 11.5 points on a point spread line that has pushed in Tampa Bay’s favor since opening at -11. The Bucs have covered their last four games and their last five at home. The Saints just blew out the Jets but haven’t covered twice in a row all season.

It’s certainly a large number, but you can’t fade the Buccaneers here. Nor can you assume the Saints will get it done. Prior to the easy win over New York, New Orleans had dropped five straight, the last three by double figures. We’re taking Tampa Bay at this number.

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Saints vs. Buccaneers Totals

NFL sportsbooks have posted an Over/Under of 46.5 points for Sunday Night Football – that number has dropped 1.5 points since opening, thanks to the defensive trends for each side.

This is the third-lowest Over/Under of any Saints game this season, but the last time these teams played the game totaled 63, a 36-27 Saints home win. Conversely, this is the first game in a month a Buccaneers total has been under 50. Their last nine games have hit at least 40 and four of the last five have totaled at least 47.

We’re siding with the Bucs doing their thing on offense, and Hill continuing to cut down on mistakes at QB. We’re not including the total in any part of our NFL picks ticket for Week 15, but if we were, it would be the Over.

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.