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Next Jets Starting QB Odds: Trevor Siemian Now The Favorite After Wilson's Struggles

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com

Adam Thompson  | 7 mins

Next Jets Starting QB Odds: Trevor Siemian Now The Favorite After Wilson's Struggles

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Aaron Rodgers joining the New York Jets was the biggest storyline of the 2023 NFL season. It's still the biggest, but for all the wrong reasons. 

The four-time NFL MVP suffered a torn Achilles on just his fourth play in a Jets jersey. Rodgers is out for the season, a massive blow to the Jets – and to the NFL, as one of their most bankable superstars is finished for 2023, and perhaps forever. But now is no time to rest for the Jets, who forge on with Zach Wilson back under center. Head coach Robert Saleh says Wilson “is our starter for the rest of the season.” 

But is he? The first start of Wilson 2023 was a catastrophe, and these Jets are built to win right now. 

Bookies.com oddsmaker Adam Thompson breaks down the NFL landscape and reveals his NFL futures odds for the Jets’ starting quarterback by Week 9 – days after the trade deadline. 

New York Jets Starting QB Odds

PlayerOddsImplied Probability
Trevor Siemian+35022.2%
Zach Wilson+37521.1%
Matt Ryan+60014.3%
Colt McCoy+65013.3%
Joe Flacco+65013.3%
Drew Lock+10009.1%
Carson Wentz+12007.7%
Drew Lock+15006.3%
Kyler Murray+20003.9%
Tom Brady+50002.0%
Colin Kaepernick+75001.3%
The Field+18005.3%

This market is for entertainment purposes only and has been created by the Bookies.com team. It is not currently available on betting apps.

Rodgers was supposed to bring elusive success to a Jets team that owns the NFL’s longest playoff drought. The Jets built around their acquired QB, with a playmaking defense, two capable RBs, and a budding star WR in Garrett Wilson. 

Rodgers is gone, but the rest of the team is poised to continue the fight. For now, the job belongs to Wilson. The maligned QB out of BYU went 3-10 as a rookie, then last season was 5-4 in nine starts, but with just six TDs and seven INTs and a paltry 54.6% completion percentage. 

Wilson performed admirably in a tough situation on Monday vs. the mighty Buffalo Bills, going 14-of-21 for 140 yards with one TD and one INT. The Jets won the game 22-16. Things didn't go as well Week 2 in Dallas. Wilson finished just 12-of-27 passing with one TD and three INTs in a 30-10 defeat, then managed just 157 yards on 18-of-36 passing in a 15-10 loss to the Jets. 

Through three weeks, the Jets rank dead-last in the NFL in passing yards, and Wilson ranks only ahead of Justin Fields in QBR rating. 

Based on Jets coach Robert Saleh’s handling of Wilson in the past, and his major regression in his first of many planned starts, it is not a reach to believe the Jets will be scouring the landscape for other options. 

Best Options To Replace Aaron Rodgers

Unlike most other positions, QBs don't get traded or added midseason often, because the playbook and game plan take far longer to learn. With that in mind, the Jets reportedly reached out to veterans with ties to offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett to lessen the learning curve. Those options didn't work out, but the Jets did sign a QB with experience in the West Coast style. 

Trevor Siemian played in a similarly styled offense with the Bears last season. Siemian hasn't been a regular starter since 2017 and is 0-6 in starts since then. Siemian was added to the practice squad as he familiarizes himself with the playbook. Siemian is not going to move the needle for fans who have seen enough of Wilson and want a change, but as of now, Siemian is the best available option. 

The Jets have said that if they do bring in a new QB, it would be to serve as the backup to Wilson. But Wilson's play may determine that. Based on his action through three weeks, New York may have no choice than to find a Plan B, quickly. 

Siemian is the favorite over Wilson because he's in-house, and Wilson's trajectory may force Saleh's hand. But there are several veteran options that may be better-suited to get New York to where it wants to be. 

Colt McCoy, who lost the Arizona Cardinals starting gig to Joshua Dobbs and was released, is reportedly mulling offers from multiple teams. Matt Ryan just retired from the Falcons after an MVP, Super Bowl berth and nearly 63,000 passing yards. He is now an analyst at CBS but "is not retiring," leaving open the possibility of leaving the booth for the sidelines. There has been a rumbling in Jets circles about making such a bold move. 

Joe Flacco had been the backup for three seasons with the Jets before the sides parted ways in 2023. Flacco, 38, did not latch on to another team but said he’s not retired and wants to play. Flacco is familiar with the offense and owns a Super Bowl ring. He also went 1-8 as a starter in his three seasons with New York, however. 

Carson Wentz nearly won the MVP in 2017 with the Eagles. Since then, his career hasn’t been as smooth. Last season he joined the Commanders and went just 2-4 as a starter before Taylor Heinicke took over. Wentz played in two more games at the end of the season and cost his team a playoff spot before the team moved on. He failed to find a team this offseason, but this could present an opportunity to prove he still has it. If the Jets haven't signed Wentz yet, however, they must not be overly interested. 

Drew Lock is holding the clipboard for Geno Smith, who inked a big deal with the Seahawks in the off-season. Smith admitted "bittersweet" emotions after Lock decided to return to Seattle despite Smith inking a long-term deal to be the starter. Lock wants more, and this could be the situation if the Jets deem him worth. 

Cardinals star QB Kyler Murray is recovering from his own torn ACL in Arizona. The Cardinals are currently riding Joshua Dobbs until Murray is healthy. From most angles, Arizona appears to be a team in a total rebuild, but with a QB on a massive contract. This could be the opportunity to move on from Murray. It would certainly give the Jets an added weapon. All sides could get on board with a move like this if the salary cap doesn’t get in the way, though Arizona brass says Murray is its man. 

There is also the retirement pile. Tom Brady is the greatest to throw a football and he is just a few months removed from playing for the Buccaneers. Brady has made so many jokes about coming back; it seems highly unlikely he would return. 

Then there's Colin Kaepernick. The former 49ers QB penned a letter to the Jets asking for the opportunity to join the practice squad and see what happens. But that would be a shock to the NFL system. Kaepernick hasn't played a down in the NFL since 2016, a season in which he went 1-10 with the Niners. 

The Field includes other veteran backups who may love the opportunity to lead a loaded Jets squad, but whose teams may be reluctant to trade their guys based on current situations. That includes Trey Lance of the Cowboys, Jacoby Brissett of the Commanders, Andy Dalton of the Panthers, Davis Mills of the Texans and Marcus Mariota of the Eagles.

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About the Author

Adam Thompson for Bookies.com
Adam Thompson
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He's long been established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, specializing in the NFL where he's hit on more than 60% over the past three years. Adam's NBA, PGA and horse racing picks have also produced major winners over the last 12 months. His customized NFL and NBA odds for players and teams have been picked up by hundreds of websites over the past year.