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NFL DFS Week 13 Value Plays & Best Picks

Jim Coventry for Bookies.com

Jim Coventry  | 10 mins

NFL DFS Week 13 Value Plays & Best Picks

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Defenses still continue to rule the league this season with scoring being down from past years. But there’s always value in exploiting particular matchups to gain an advantage in daily fantasy sports.

NFL DFS Week 13 Main Slate, Ranked by Over/Under

  • Chiefs vs Bengals - 52.5
  • Jaguars vs Lions - 51
  • Chargers vs Raiders - 50
  • Browns vs Texans - 47.5
  • Dolphins vs 49ers - 46.5
  • Jets vs Vikings - 44.5
  • Colts vs Cowboys - 44.5
  • Packers vs Bears - 44.5
  • Titans vs Eagles - 44
  • Steelers vs Falcons - 42.5
  • Seahawks vs Rams - 41
  • Commanders vs Giants - 40
  • Broncos vs Ravens - 39.5

Highest Implied Team Total

  • Chiefs, Cowboys, Browns - 27
  • Chargers, Jaguars - 26
  • Eagles, 49ers, Bengals, Lions, Raiders - 25
  • Seahawks, Ravens, Vikings, Packers - 24
  • Commanders, Falcons - 22
  • Dolphins, Jets, Steelers - 21
  • Titans Bears, Texans - 20
  • Giants - 19
  • Rams - 17
  • Colts - 16
  • Broncos - 15

NFL DFS Week 13 Quarterbacks for FanDuel & DraftKings

Jimmy Garoppolo - 49ers vs. Dolphins - DK $5,600 FD $7,000

We don’t like the recent trend that has seen Garoppolo throw one or fewer TD passes in two of his last three games. But in both of those contests, the 49ers won comfortably and never needed to lean on their passing attack. This matchup against the Dolphins should be different. First of all, Miami should be able to score enough points to push the 49ers into an aggressive mode on offense. 

Also, the Dolphins' defense has been excellent against the run but weak against the pass. And although they are very good at bringing pressure, the 49ers passing attack is well-equipped to get the ball quickly into the hands of their playmakers, which often renders the pass rush useless. That should allow for big yardage (and hopefully TDs) after the catch. 

In terms of fantasy production allowed to QBs, Miami gives up the fifth-most points per game despite facing five offenses with very limited passing attacks. Look for Garoppolo to return to the form that saw him throw multiple TD passes in five of six games through Week 11.

Justin Herbert - Chargers at Raiders - DK $7,200 FD $8,100

To say that Herbert has the Raiders’ number is an understatement. In the last three games, he’s faced them, he’s thrown exactly three TD passes. And in his last two games against them, he’s averaged 330 passing yards. 

Las Vegas has been a terrible pass defense all year. They’ve allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing QBs, which includes over 260 passing yards and 1.7 passing TDs per game. On offense, the Chargers don’t have a reliable running game. That’s largely due to their decimated offensive line. 

They are best when using Austin Ekeler as a receiver. And now that Keenan Allen is back for his third straight game, he should finally be at 100%, giving the Qb a pair of elite weapons. And Herbert has been heating up since Allen’s return. He’s thrown for at least 274 yards and two TDs in each of those two games. This game has all the makings of a shootout, and when placed in that situation, Herbert has elite upside.

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Deshaun Watson - Browns at Texans - DK $6,500 FD $8,000

This is the ultimate boom-or-bust tournament play. There’s massive upside as he faces one of the worst defenses in the league. And it goes without saying that the last year he spent with the Texans was acrimonious, to say the least. So if there’s a revenge narrative, this is it, as he faces his former team. 

And with the Browns having Nick Chubb and one of the best rushing attacks in the league, Houston will have to focus on that first and foremost. Because of the run game, Cleveland has had one of the best play-action passing attacks in the league. Watson could literally throw as few as 25 passes and have a big day. But there’s downside. He hasn’t played in a real game in almost two years. 

There could be significant rust. The Browns could choose to ease him and by simply running the ball all day against one of the worst run defenses in the league. Altogether, his volatility is what makes him attractive in DFS tournaments this week.

Also Consider - Trevor Lawrence, Geno Smith

NFL DFS Week 13 Running Backs for FanDuel & DraftKings

Josh Jacobs - Raiders vs. Chargers - DK $7,900 FD $9,500

It sounds like Jacobs’ calf injury is legitimate. He was a true game-time decision last week before destroying the Seattle defense for 229 rushing yards and two TDs. He’s been limited in practice this week, but that would seem to indicate that he’ll be ready to face the Chargers. His injury risk makes him a tournament-only option. 

He has an excellent matchup against a Los Angeles defense that’s giving up 5.63 yards per carry, the most in the league, to opposing RBs. They have allowed more than a TD and 130 rushing yards per game. And Jacobs’ workload has been elite. He’s had at least 27 touches in each of the last three games. That has included over six targets per game during that span, which fits in well against a defense that gives up more than four receptions per game to RBs. Yes, there’s risk, but there’s also massive upside here.

Joe Mixon - Bengals vs. Chiefs - DK $7,100 FD $8,500

After missing last week’s game with a concussion, Mixon is expected back this week. Since the Bengals began to figure some things out on offense around Week 6, his role has led to increased production. In his last four full games, he’s averaging four targets, 14 rushing attempts while scoring seven TDs. 

With Ja'Marr Chase expected to return to action, the Chiefs will have to play with at least one fewer defender against the run on most plays. That should give Mixon extra room to operate. Although the Chiefs are in the middle of the pack in terms of fantasy production allowed to RBs, they give up 4.5 yards per carry and almost five receptions per game to RBs. In a game that has potential to be high-scoring, Mixon is a nice pivot if you’re trying to fade the Bengals WRs.

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Aaron Jones - Packers at Bears - DK $6,900 FD $7,400

Although he’s been inconsistent, Jones has shown plenty of upside this year. He’s reached at least 18.9 PPR points four times over his last six games. During that time, he has a pair of games in which he’s posted at least 53 receiving yards and a TD. He also has two other games that he rushed for at least 138 yards. 

The main point is that he has multiple paths to big fantasy scoring. And don’t forget that he’s already faced the Bears this year. In that game, he posted 170 scrimmage yards and two TDs. Jones has actually scored in each of his last four games against Chicago. On the season, the Bears give up the fifth-most fantasy points to RBs while surrendering 4.83 yards per carry. 

And this defense has become worse since trading away Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith. With Aaron Rodgers playing at less than 100%, Jones could see as much work as he can handle.

Also Consider - Nick Chubb, David Montgomery, Kyren Williams

NFL DFS Week 13 Wide Receivers for FanDuel & DraftKings

A.J. Brown- Eagles vs. Titans - DK $7,800 FD $8,100

I try not to be a sucker for a good narrative. But sometimes there are players who come across as being able to have a big game against a former team. So yes, Brown is facing a Tennessee team that traded him away on draft night, and he certainly must be motivated to remind them that they shouldn’t have dealt him away. 

But as much as the narrative is great, the matchup is even better. The Titans are one of the best defenses against the run in the league. And even though the Eagles have an excellent offensive line and running game, Tennessee is weakest in the secondary. It would make sense if the game plan started with Brown. Not only do the Tennessee CBs struggle in coverage, but they lack the physicality to deal with Brown

Although he hasn’t had many big games, he already has a pair of 155-yard games. And the Titans have given up over 2,000 yards and 14 TDs to WRs in 11 games. Brown is an excellent DraftKings Fantasy play this week.

NFL DFS Week 13 Value Plays & Best Picks 1

Keenan Allen - Chargers at Raiders - DK $6,500 FD 7,700

It seems very likely that this game will be a shootout. And if that’s the case, Justin Herbert will be needed to carry the offense. In his two games back from injury, Allen has seen his snaps increase from 44 to 57, and he should be set to take on a full snap share this week. 

He faced the Raiders in Week 1, but left the game after 21 snaps with a hamstring injury, but on those limited plays, he posted four catches for 64 yards. The Raiders have a middling run defense, which should be enough to deter the Chargers from using their weak rushing attack to move the ball. 

That would allow Los Angeles to take aim at the weakness of the defense, which is their cornerback play. Allen has an excellent chance to catch 10 passes, which could result in him going over 100 yards with a chance to score as Herbert’s primary target.

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Brandon Aiyuk - 49ers vs. Dolphins - DK $6,100 FD $6,700

After suffering injuries throughout the year, Miami has become one of the weaker defenses in the league against the pass. In addition, they have an excellent run defense, which encourages teams to pass the ball against them. Aiyuk has five TDs over his last six games while posting at least 81 yards in three of those games. 

But he could see an increase in usage this week, as Deebo Samuel is battling through a hamstring injury and Christian McCaffrey is dealing with knee soreness. It would make sense if Miami came in looking to contain the run game to try and force Jimmy Garoppolo to beat them. That could ultimately be a mistake that leads to Aiyuk having his best game of the year that would include significant yardage after the catch.

Also Consider - Jaylen Waddle, Amari Cooper, Christian Watson, Garrett Wilson

NFL DFS Week 13 Tight Ends for FanDuel & DraftKings

Foster Moreau- Raiders vs. Chargers - DK $3,600 FD $5,500

Moreau has had a fair scoring floor lately, but he’s also been used more in the red zone. Over the last five games, he’s averaging 5.5 targets while posting between 31-43 yards. At an affordable FanDuel Fantasy salary, he at least can provide enough targets to establish a floor. But he’s also been targeted in the red zone in each of the last three games, and he found the end zone twice during that span. 

Another selling point is his matchup. He’ll face a Chargers defense that gives up over 60 yards per game to opposing TEs. And in a game that could easily be high scoring, Moreau is an excellent way to get an inexpensive piece of the action

George Kittle - 49ers vs. Dolphins - DK $5,000 FD $6,200

We all know the drill with Kittle. He’s a volatile fantasy option. It’s not because of talent, but week-to-week usage. The 49ers are facing a pass-funnel defense in the Dolphins. What that means is that they are excellent against the run but weak against the pass. 

And they are especially vulnerable to TEs. Miami is giving up almost 60 yards and the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing TEs. Also, the 49ers will likely need to manage their usage of Deebo Samuel (hamstring) and Christian McCaffrey (knee). As a result, Kittle could flirt with the season-high 10 targets that he saw in Week 6. If he sees that volume against this opponent, he has week-winning upside. 

Also Consider - Pat Freiermuth, Hayden Hurst

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About the Author

Jim Coventry for Bookies.com
Jim Coventry
Coventry nabbed a No. 1 finish and placed in the top 50 in five large-field DFS contests while entering just a single entry in each. He also was a triple crown winner (total points, best record, and playoff champion) in the 2022 King’s Classic auction league. He began playing fantasy football in 1994 and has been an analyst since 2007. He’s a deputy NFL editor with RotoWire and hosts SiriusXM shows on the weekends, as well as writing on DFS for Bookies.