NFL DFS Week 14 Value Plays & Best Picks
Jim Coventry | 10 mins
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Defenses still continue to rule the league this season with scoring being down from past years. But there’s always value in exploiting particular matchups to gain an advantage in daily fantasy sports.
NFL DFS Week 14 Main Slate, Ranked by Over/Under
- Dolphins vs Chargers - 52.5
- Vikings vs Lions - 52
- Browns vs Bengals - 46.5
- Eagles vs Giants - 44.5
- Texans vs Cowboys - 44
- Chiefs vs Broncos - 44
- Panthers vs Seahawks - 44
- Jets vs Bills - 43
- Jaguars vs Titans - 41
- Ravens vs Steelers - 37
- Buccaneers vs 49ers - 37
Highest Implied Team Total
- Cowboys - 31
- Lions, Dolphins - 28
- Chiefs, Bills, Bengals - 27
- Eagles - 26
- Raiders, Vikings - 25
- Chargers, Seahawks - 24
- Patriots - 23
- Titans - 22
- Browns, Cardinals - 21
- 49ers, Panthers, Steelers - 20
- Giants, Rams - 19
- Jaguars - 18
- Ravens, Buccaneers, Jets, Broncos - 17
- Texans - 15
NFL DFS Week 14 Quarterbacks for FanDuel & DraftKings
Ryan Tannehill - Titans vs. Jaguars - DK $5,200 FD $6,700
Tannehill is coming off a brutal four-game stretch in the schedule in which he’s faced three of the top-four defenses against quarterbacks. But over those four games, he’s thrown for at least 255 yards three times and multiple touchdowns twice. Defenses are selling out to stop Derrick Henry. As a result, the receivers are seeing extra room to operate.
That is allowing Tannehill to connect on easy passes. It has also led to him having a pair of games with at least 34 pass attempts. This week, he’ll face a Jaguars defense that is in the bottom 10 in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs. Over the last three weeks, they’re giving up over 300 passing yards and over two passing TDs per contest. In this divisional matchup, expect the Jaguars to follow the recent blueprint of committing to stopping Henry. That will help Tannehill extend his recent hot streak. And with Jacksonville having an inferior secondary, he could have his best game of the season.
Jared Goff - Lions vs. Vikings - DK $5,600 FD $7,100
The Vikings are what we call a pass-funnel defense. They are elite in terms of stopping the run, but they are very vulnerable against the pass. Although they have a solid pass rush, their pass rush has been inconsistent over the course of games. They’ll get good pressure on occasion, but opposing quarterbacks behind solid offensive lines, such as Goff, typically remain well-protected. After playing rather poorly in Weeks 5-11, Goff has been excellent in his last two games.
He’s thrown for multiple TDs in each game while averaging 290 yards. Knowing the Lions will have to pass to have offensive success against Minnesota, I’m expecting a game plan that stresses that approach. In addition to having star WR Amon-Ra St. Brown in the slot, DJ Chark has returned from injury and looked fully back last week, giving Goff another needed weapon. The team also pushed their dangerous receiving RB, D’Andre Swift into a prominent role in their last game, which was the first time he was featured since early in the year. He could give Goff another weapon through the air. With three big-play threats, Goff is positioned for a spike week.
Joe Burrow - Bengals vs. Browns - DK $7,000 FD $8,300
Aside from an inefficient game in Week 12 against the Titans, Burrow’s been playing at a very high level since the Bengals’ Week 10 bye. In recent games against the Steelers and Chiefs, he’s averaging 320 yards and three TD passes. He’ll be facing a Browns defense that he faced without Ja’Marr Chase in Week 8, but he still came away with a pair of TD passes while completing over 70 percent of his passes. Since that game, Cincinnati has made excellent adjustments on offense.
They are far less predictable in their formation usage and play calling. That has allowed Burrow to pick apart some very good defenses. The Browns defense has been statistically above average against opposing QBs, but half of their games have been against backup-caliber quarterbacks. They simply lack the talent in the secondary to deal with both Chase and Tee Higgins. In a must-win game as the Bengals are fighting for the top playoff seed, they should lean on Burrow, which will lead to another strong performance.
Also Consider: Geno Smith, Tyler Huntley
NFL DFS Week 14 Running Backs for FanDuel & DraftKings
Miles Sanders - Eagles at Giants - DK $6,200 FD $7,100
The Eagles have an excellent coaching staff. They understand the importance of game planning to attack the most vulnerable area of defense. It also helps that they have the personnel to do that. This week, they’ll face a Giants defense that lacks the talent to stand up consistently to the mauling Eagles offensive line. In this divisional battle, attacking an overmatched run defense is the way to both dominate on the scoreboard and in the time-of-possession battle.
Sanders already has four games this year in which he’s posted at least 93 yards and a touchdown. He’ll face a Giants defense that’s given up at least 90 yards to seven different RBs this year. They’ve also given up five rushing TDs over their last three games. When the Eagles have an advantage in the run game, Sanders is the catalyst. He should be the focal point of the offense. Even though he’s only cracked 20 rush attempts twice all year, he’s already proven that he can put up dominating numbers with as few as 15 carries.
Tony Pollard - Cowboys vs Texans - DK $6,700 FD $7,500
Yes, I know that Ezekiel Elliott went back to seeing more snaps and carries than Pollard when Elliott was back to full health in last week’s game. But we’ve learned this year that Pollard can put up excellent fantasy numbers regardless of his usage. But in this game against the Texans, his advantage is that this defense has been particularly bad against teams’ secondary running backs.
Aside from this being one of the worst run defenses in the league, they frequently get beaten on big runs to the outside. This sets up as the type of game that Pollard can get outside and have a number of explosive runs. Look for him to continue a streak that’s had him post at least 21.8 PPR points in four of his last five games. And with Dallas likely to play this game with a lead, they should employ a run-heavy approach, which could allow Pollard to flirt with 20 touches.
Dalvin Cook - Vikings at Lions - DK $7,300 FD $8,700
Cook hasn’t been an elite producer this year. But he does have five games with at least 77 yards and a touchdown. He’s seen his workload ramp up in the last two weeks. In those games, he averaged 24 touches. Not only should he see that level of work this week, but it could increase. Although the Lions look like a cake matchup across the board on defense, this unit has changed.
Detroit has been much better against the pass and with their pass rush over the past few games. But they are still very vulnerable against the run. And the Vikings have had one of the best run-blocking offensive lines in the league this year. I expect them to lean heavily on Cook and the run while moving their passing attack a bit into the background. This setup could result in Cook having his best performance of the season.
Also Consider: D’Onta Foreman, Travis Homer, D’Andre Swift
NFL DFS Week 14 Wide Receivers for FanDuel & DraftKings
Ja’Marr Chase - Bengals vs. Browns - DK $7,900 FD $8,700
Chase returned last week from a four-week absence due to a hip injury. He barely missed a beat while posting 97 yards against the Chiefs. Before the injury, he was just settling into the offense. In his last two games before missing time he had at least 130 yards and two touchdowns in each contest. He’ll face a Browns defense that has given up at least 100 yards to four different WRs, with three of those receivers scoring at least once.
Not only has this been an underachieving secondary this year, but they lack the depth in the secondary to deal with speed and explosiveness that Chase brings. It’s likely that Burrow targets him at least 10 times, as he’s done in five of eight games. And with that type of volume, Chase will be positioned for another big game.
Amon-Ra. St. Brown - Lions vs. Vikings - DK $7,800 FD 8,600
After an inconsistent start to the season, St. Brown has been coming on lately. Over the last four games, he has posted at least 114 yards three times. He’s also scored three touchdowns over his last two games. And since Week 8, he’s averaging 10 targets. He’ll face a Lions defense that’s excellent against the run but weak against the pass. It’s unlikely that Detroit will challenge this elite run defense. But with Jared Goff playing at a high level the last two weeks, the team should have no issue loading the QB up with pass attempts.
As always, St. Brown will be the focal point of the passing attack, and with DJ Chark now healthy, Chark’s speed will force the safeties to be concerned with the deep pass rather than St. Brown underneath. That should result in extra room for St. Brown to operate when he’s in the slot. Since Week 8, the Vikings have allowed five different WRs to post at least 128 yards. There’s very little downside, but St. Brown definitely has elite upside this week.
NFL DFS Week 14 Tight Ends for FanDuel & DraftKings
Mark Andrews - Ravens at Steelers - DK $6,500 FD $6,800
If I told you there was a tight end who averaged 8.5 catches, 100 yards, 0.6 touchdowns and 11 targets, he would be an autostart in any FanDuel Fantasy ➜ contest. Well, last year in the five games that Tyler Huntley started at QB for the Ravens, those numbers were what we saw from Mark Andrews. Of course, there’s no guarantee that will happen again this week, but it’s certainly worth a flier. The bigger question is why Huntley targeted Andrews so much.
The QB didn’t seem to do well with pressure, so he often got rid of the ball quickly, and often to the middle of the field. Those are smart strategies for a young QB. Andrews did face the Steelers with Huntley at QB in Week 18 last year, and Andrews caught eight passes for 85 yards, but he had a whopping 15 targets, so their connection was a bit off in that game. The Steelers have been good, but not great against TEs this year. They allow just over 50 yards per game to the position. Again, this is mostly based on last year, but it’s worth a DFS flier.
T.J. Hockenson - Vikings at Lions - DK $5,100 FD $6,500
Hockenson hasn’t been an upside play over the last four games. He’s posted between 34-45 yards in each of those contests while scoring once. After seeing at least nine targets in his first three games with Minnesota, he’s seen exactly six in each of his last two games. But he’ll face a Lions defense that’s improved greatly against wide receivers in the last month, so the best place to attack them through the air may be in the middle of the field.
Obviously, that’s where Hockenson runs most of his routes. He’ll face a Detroit defense that has given up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing TEs. Two different TEs have recorded seven catches against them since Week 10, and Cole Kmet recently touched them up for two TDs. And for those who like a little narrative, Hockenson will face the team that traded him away earlier this season, so he may have extra motivation as he returns to his former home stadium.
Also Consider: Chig Okonkwo, Noah Fant