NFL Divisional Playoff Betting Takeaways: The Stars Align

By Adam Thompson Mar 14th, 2024 7:22 AM EDT

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If recent NFL Playoff history is any indication, the home teams have fared well in conference title matchups.

The home team in the AFC Championship has won 11 of the past 13 times. In the NFC, the home team has won five of six, with the last three wins each by at least 23 points.

COMPARE: Updated AFC Championship and NFC Championship odds.

With Super Bowl berths on the line Sunday, the Kansas City Chiefs, hosting the Tennessee Titans in the AFC, and the San Francisco 49ers, hosting the Green Bay Packers in the NFC, have to like their chances to meet in Miami.

Points should be scored, as well. The last five NFC title games have averaged 54.6 ppg, with an average of 51 points in the AFC.

Here’s a look back at Divisional Round Weekend and a quick look ahead to the Conference Championships of the NFL Playoffs:

Streaks Live On …

Chiefs pour on the points

Kansas City was getting demolished before scoring 41 unanswered points in a 20-point win. The Chiefs have now won 11 straight home day games after winning the previous week. They’ve covered the spread in seven in a row.

Travis Kelce not only scored a TD for the fifth time in six games after a win, he had three of them.

Stars Get It Done

The Packers held off the Seahawks 28-23 thanks to the scoring aptitude of standouts Davante Adams and Aaron Jones. Nothing new there: Adams has scored in eight-straight Sunday evening games, and Jones has scored in a whopping 11 straight Sunday home games.

Seahawks RB Marshawn Lynch hasn’t racked up the yardage in his three games with the team, but he has a nose for paydirt. He scored two TDs on Sunday, giving him four in the last three weeks and at least one TD in nine of his last 11 playoff games.

Packers Cover Again

The Packers step it up against top-tier competition, improving to a stellar 8-1 ATS against teams with above-.500 records. They also improved to 6-1 ATS in their last seven playoff games.

The Seahawks were 0-5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Lambeau Field, and that run continued, too.

… And Streaks End

Vikings-Niners flip scripts

The 49ers flexed their top-seeded muscle in a comfortable 27-10 win over the Vikings. They did so despite Raheem Mostert snapping his six-game TD streak and Deebo Samuel snapping his 3-1 run of scoring when San Francisco was a favorite. Dalvin Cook had scored in six straight when the Vikings underdogs. He had just 18 yards rushing and six receptions for eight yards.

Minnesota was on a 5-2 ATS run on the road and coach Mike Zimmer was an amazing 44-19 ATS against non-NFC North competition. Niners coach Kyle Shanahan was just 5-12 ATS as a favorite.

Titans dominate heavy favorite

Derrick Henry ran roughshod over the Ravens in a stunning 28-12 win for the Titans. But he didn’t get into the end zone for the first time in six road games.

Baltimore had won 12 in a row and covered in seven straight against AFC competition. Both of those runs were emphatically halted.

Texans can’t keep up

Houston led Kansas City 24-0 before getting run over in a 51-31 loss to the Chiefs. KC was just 1-5 ATS in its last six playoff home games but covered with room to spare.

Carlos Hyde failed to score for the first time in four road games and DeAndre Hopkins was blanked; he had a TD in four of the last six against the Chiefs.

Best Pick Of Divisional Playoff Weekend

Packers (-4) over Seahawks

The Packers are 7-1 ATS against teams with winning records, not to mention 5-1 in their last six playoff games. They went 7-1 at home this season with six of those wins by more than four points. Those trends continued despite the solid play of Russell Wilson. Green Bay’s standouts showed up in prime time.

Worst Pick Of Divisional Playoff Weekend

Vikings (+7) over 49ers

Minnesota was 8-2 when Dalvin Cook, Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen played. The Niners were just 1-4 ATS at home their last five games. Minnesota seemingly had too many weapons to be given a full TD, but it managed just seven first downs and 147 total yards against the fully healthy San Francisco defense.

CHECK OUT: Super Bowl odds from the top US sportsbooks

A Quick Look Ahead

Lines change throughout the week. Here are three NFL betting lines to consider for the Divisional round of the NFL Playoffs before they move:

Titans-Chiefs Over 52

How the Chiefs’ 26th-ranked run defense is going to slow down Henry is a mystery. How the Titans’ 26th-ranked pass defense is going to handle Patrick Mahomes is just as unknown. These teams played to a 35-32 contest earlier in the year and it’s not hard to envision another shootout here.

Titans +7.5 over Chiefs

Tennessee has found its winning formula — feed Henry and allow Ryan Tannehill to hit open receivers and avoid the big error. If Henry can cruise through the Ravens’ defense, he might surpass 200 against the Chiefs.

Packers-49ers Under 45 Points

The way the 49ers’ defense looked in dismantling the Vikings, it’s hard to envision the Packers scoring a ton of points on the road here. Green Bay’s defense ranks 18th in yards allowed, but just ninth in points allowed.

About the Author

Adam Thompson

More About Adam

Long established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine & CBSSports.com. He specializes in the NFL and MLB, where he's hit on well over 60% of his picks the past five years. Adam's NBA and horse racing picks have also produced consistent, major winners over the years.