The NFL Draft is no longer simply a time for teams to replenish rosters. Now spread over three days with a prime-time broadcast of the first round on Thursday, the NFL Draft has become another hugely popular event for the public.

For NFL betting enthusiasts, the 2024 NFL Draft offers hundreds of possible ways to wager. The choices are aplenty, from the simple (odds on the first overall pick) to the more nuanced (Over/Under on offensive linemen taken in Round 1), there are more than enough options for every sports betting fan to stay tuned. 

Bookies.com NFL handicapper Adam Thompson has used his resources of NFL contacts developed over 20 years covering the league and the NFL Draft to break down several of the most popular wagers and offer his best bets, from the No. 1 overall pick amount of Big Ten players selected.

NFL Draft 2024 Best Bets & Predictions

No. 2 Overall Pick Odds

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Caleb Williams is going to the Bears with the No. 1 overall pick. Feel free to sprinkle a little at -20000 odds if you want to start the night with a W. 

Then the real drafting begins. The Commanders own the No. 2 pick, and everyone expects them to take a QB. But which one? Jayden Daniels of LSU and Drake May of North Carolina have long been considered to go 2-3 in the draft, but the order has flipped over the weeks and months leading up to Thursday night. 

The belief from this seat is that the pick is Daniels, and the Maye talk has been mostly smoke. Daniels won every QB award in college in 2023, plus the Heisman Trophy. He has the size (6-foot-4), athleticism (led the nation among QBs), and experience (a five-year starter). Maye has a cannon for an arm, but a relative lack of experience, success, and athleticism makes him more boom-or-bust, and pushes him to No. 3. 

McCarthy has gained a lot of steam, and some analysts have said he’s worthy of the No. 2 overall pick. We’re not biting. 

NFL Pick: Jayden Daniels -160 at BetMGM

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No. 4 Overall Pick Odds

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Quarterbacks will almost surely go 1-2-3. After that, the real draft begins. The Arizona Cardinals sit at No. 4 and control the first-round fates of many teams. Reports left and right are coming in of teams looking to trade up and get one of the top-four QBs. If Arizona sells the pick, Maye and McCarthy are going here, whichever is still available. 

But many NFL Draft trade rumors don’t come to fruition. Those that do often come well after a pick has been made. Arizona is desperate to turn things around with Kyler Murray at QB. The team has no WR1 on the roster with Marquise Brown now in Kansas City. 

Marvin Harrison Jr. took all the WR awards in 2023 and has the tangibles and intangibles to be a Day 1 go-to wideout at the pro level. So does Malik Nabers, and that could be a stealthy dark horse. But Nabers has some medical concerns, and the Cardinals have reportedly fallen in love with Harrison. That Harrison came out and said “I want to play in Arizona” only makes this pick easier. For the Cards, and for us. 

NFL Pick: Marvin Harrison Jr. -225 at BetMGM

No. 5 Overall Pick Odds

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The Los Angeles Chargers were supposed to be Super Bowl contenders last year, but many wheels fell off and the team went 5-12, a five-game dropoff. Now Jim Harbaugh is in town from winning a national title and Michigan. This is a big first pick for him. 

While Harbaugh loves defense, his Chargers need a receiver. They traded Keenan Allen and released Mike Williams to relieve cap space, leaving them with Josh Palmer and second-year pro-Quintin Johnston. 

There are two WRs above the rest in this draft. One is Harrison, who should go No. 4 to Arizona. The other is Malik Nabers of LSU, who has been compared (obviously favorably) to former Tigers wideout Justin Jefferson. 

Even if the Chargers believe they need other pieces more, the new coach and new GM want to show support for QB Justin Herbert. If you’re going to subtract two 1,000-yard receivers, you're better at a potential new WR1 and prove to your franchise QB that you have his back. 

NFL Pick: Malik Nabers +230 at BetMGM

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Jared Verse, Over/Under 15.5 Draft Position

Verse was a speedy Edge rusher at Florida State, earning second-team All-American status and racking up nine sacks in each of the last two seasons. His motor and production rank up there with the best of them. 

What doesn’t rank as high are his measurables. At 6-4 and 254 pounds and an arm length of 33.5 inches, NFL teams typically look for bigger numbers in those categories. Will analytics or actual results win out? NFL.com has Verse ranked as its No. 1 Edge rushing prospect in the draft. Edge is a top-three need for half the teams in the draft. 

NFL Pick: Under 15.5 (+150) at BetMGM

Drafted First: Adonai Mitchell vs. Xavier Worthy

The Texas WR counterparts could both go in the first round. But Worthy’s status has dropped over the last several weeks. Mitchell, meanwhile, seems like a lock to go on Thursday night. The Buffalo Bills reportedly have him targeted at No. 28 overall. 

Worthy is an absolute speedster who ran a 4.21 40-yard dash, but he’s also just 165 pounds, and NFL scouts are concerned he may not be able to display that speed if he can’t break away from physical pro-CBs. Mitchell is 6-2, 205, ran a 4.34, and played big in the Longhorns’ biggest games. Scouts will go with the more “sure thing” in the first round. 

NFL Pick: Adonai Mitchell (-190) at BetMGM

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Drafted First: Jared Verse vs. Terrion Arnold

We’re on the record expecting Verse to go in the upper-half of the first round. Arnold, out of Alabama, is likely going to be the No. 2 or No. 3 cornerback off the board, following Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell. He could go No. 1. If that’s the case, Verse could still win this head-to-head. 

Verse is being strongly looked at by teams picking 8-12, Arnold from 12-17. If the Denver Broncos are still picking at No. 12 and don’t go QB, it could come down to Verse and Arnold. 

NFL Pick: Jared Verse (-115) at BetMGM

Big Ten First Rounders

Going through the NFL Draft’s top 25 or so prospects, and six of them are Big Ten players. 

WR Marvin Harrison of Ohio State, QB J.J. McCarthy of Michigan, OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu of Penn State, CB Cooper DeJean of Iowa, DL Johnny Newton of Illinois and Edge rusher Chop Robinson of Penn State appear to be clear first-round prospects. That’s six already. 

There are a few darkhorse picks that occasionally pop into the late first-round conversations. That includes Minnesota safety Tyler Nubin and Rutgers CB Max Melton. 

NFL Pick: Over 5.5 (-125) at BetMGM

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2024 NFL Draft Betting Tips

1. Don’t Believe The Smoke

National media has changed its collective minds a dozen times over the last two weeks. Why? For one, it gives them something to talk about. But two, the GMs are, how do we put this nicely? We can’t: they’re lying. 

The Arizona Cardinals own the No. 4 overall pick and half the experts believe they’ll trade away the pick for a haul to a QB-hungry franchise. It’s possible, but it’s just as possible they use it to add an immediate-impact contributor that they can’t get down the draft. 

Whoever the consensus choices were in March are the players who often get taken in the final week of April. 

2. Expect A Draft Day Curveball

There is always one player who slides down far below what everyone believes. Aaron Rodgers is probably the most famous case – that worked out well for QB12 and the Green Bay Packers. 

Last year, it was Georgia DL Jalen Carter, who could have gone No. 3 but slipped to No. 9 to the Eagles, and CB Christian Watson, who was a top-seven pick, only to slip to No. 17 and the Patriots. 

3. Don’t Go All-In On Anything 

All it takes is one shocker to domino through the opening round. Thus, it’s best to spread the wealth and not go all-in on one no-brainer pick – because there are no surefire no-brainers. That goes for any NFL Draft, but especially this one, because of teams desperate for a new QB who might make the rash decision to move up and blow up every mock draft out there.

If the Cardinals trade the No. 4 pick, for example, that starts a domino effect that could affect the next 4-5 selections. 

The NFL Draft is a fun diversion to wager on, and you can do really well on it if you play it right. But we’re still putting all our eggs on the decision-making of men in suits, not players on fields. The entire viewing nation can see one thing, but if one scout gets into the ear of one GM, it doesn’t matter. 

2024 NFL Draft TV & Time

• Round 1: Thursday, April 25, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN, ABC, NFL Network)
• Rounds 2-3: Friday, April 26, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN, ABC, NFL Network)
• Rounds 4-7: Saturday, April 27, noon ET (ESPN, ABC, NFL Network)

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