By Adam Thompson | | 4 mins
NFL Draft Over/Under Big 12 Prop Gives You Solid Value Bet
The Big 12 Conference had two teams in College Football Playoff contention to the very end, but a slew of other teams that underachieved on a national landscape. What that means in terms of individual talent and the 2020 NFL Draft is anyone’s guess.
As few as two players from the Big 12 could be selected in the first round of the draft, but as many as eight from the conference have been mentioned as possible first-round picks.
PointsBet has released odds putting the Over/Under on total number of first-round picks from the Big 12 Conference at 3.5 players. Since being posted, the NFL betting line has skewed big-time toward the Under.
Number Of Big 12 Players Selected In The First Round
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Big 12 First-Round Locks
When it comes to top-tier NFL talent, the Big 12 doesn’t match up with the SEC or Big Ten. Only one player from the conference is likely go to in the top 20. That’s Oklahoma WR CeeDee Lamb, who will likely go off the board between No. 10 and 15.
Sooners teammate Kenneth Murray is the No. 2 or 3 linebacker in the field and is almost surely going to go in the first round. It’s sure enough that was can pencil him in as a lock.
There isn’t anyone else we can assume will go in the opening round.
While we can’t assume, we can make strong, educated guesses. When it comes to fringe first-round players, the Big 12 is king.
At cornerback, Jeff Okudah of Ohio State and C.J. Henderson of Florida are the top two. After that, there are three to four other corners who could go in the opening round, including TCU cornerback Jeff Gladney. He ranks as high as No. 3 on some boards and as low as No. 6 on others. In an era where CBs are becoming the second-most important position behind QB, it’s possible five could be taken in the first round
Then there’s the astonishing depth at wide receiver. As many as nine different wideouts have been mentioned as possible first-rounders. That includes four from the Big 12. Lamb will go early, with three others — Laviska Shenault Jr. of Colorado, Jalen Reagor of TCU and Denzel Mims of Baylor — strongly in the mix.
The Big 12 also has two defensive linemen who are fringe first rounders: Ross Blacklock of TCU and Neville Gallimore of Oklahoma.
We have Lamb and Murray going in the first round. We need two more to hit the Over and cash the big underdog price. Are they out there?
First, let’s boot all the potential defensive linemen from the Big 12 into the second round.
Gladney is a big wild card, but he’s a guy who can contribute now while offering major upside long-term. That should be enough for a team like the Vikings or Raiders to take a leap with the aggressive corner.
If Gladney doesn’t go, is the Over still doable? Yes. Two of the Big 12’s three other WRs would need to go, but Big 12 receivers are trending upward as the draft nears. Shenault, especially, has risen up the charts and is a likely end-of-round receiver choice. The same goes for Mims, who the Broncos, Cowboys and Ravens really like. Reagor is a 5-foot-11, hit-or-miss prospect; some teams covet him and others are wary.
There are multiple ways the Big 12 could get four first-round draft picks. You only need one of them to come through in NFL futures betting. The solid price makes the Over the value bet here.