NFL Week 13 Betting Takeaways: Home Teams Stumble ATS Again
It might defy first instinct, but the home favorites have simply not made winners out of backers. That trend continued in Week 13.
Home favorites went 1-4 against the spread in Week 13, a poor week that lowered the lowest-success group in 2019. Over the last three weeks, home favorites are 9-15 ATS (37.5%). On the season, they’re 46-71-3 ATS, a terrible cover rate of 39.3%.
Of the 32 NFL teams, just four are above .500 in terms of covering at home. The Green Bay Packers are the most reliable at 4-2 ATS. The New England Patriots and Minnesota Vikings are each 3-2, and the San Francisco 49ers are 3-2-1. Eight teams haven’t covered any games as a home favorite, including the 0-3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers and 0-3-1 Los Angeles Chargers.
Here’s a look back at Week 13 and a quick look ahead to Week 14:
Streaks Live On …
Giants Continue Slide
The Giants matched expectations on Sunday against the Packers. That’s not a good thing. New York lost at home to Green Bay 31-13, its eighth-consecutive defeat. The Giants have now failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 games as a home underdog.
For the Packers, the Over hit for the seventh time in a row against NFC East competition. And WR Davante Adams scored a TD for the sixth time in seven road games when Green Bay is favored. Green Bay will be favored once again next week at home against Washington.
Rams Crush Cards Again
Jared Goff threw for 424 yards and the Rams hammered the Cardinals 34-7 in Arizona. For the Rams, they’ve now covered eight road games in a row after losing their previous game. The Under hit for the sixth Rams game in a row when they’re the favorites.
For Arizona, it’s now lost 11 straight against teams with winning records.
Broncos, Chargers Give Us the Expected
The Broncos held on for a 23-20 victory over the Chargers in Denver. For the Chargers (-4.5), it’s the ninth time in 10 games they’ve failed to cover the spread against AFC competition.
… And Streaks End
Bengals Finally Get It Done
The Bengals had not won a game all season, but put Andy Dalton back in at QB and dominated the Jets for a 22-6 victory. The game snapped a number of lengthy streaks, most notably the 13-game losing streak of Cincinnati’s.
Cincy was also on a 1-10 against-the-spread slide, but that ended hard as 2.5-point underdog. The Over failed to hit for just the second time in the Jets’ last six games.
Colts Go Backward
The Titans pulled away for an impressive 31-17 win over the Colts in Indianapolis. That reversed trends the Colts had been setting, including winning seven of their last AFC South games played during the day.
Indy had also covered the spread in seven of its last eight home games against Tennessee (which was +2.5 on Sunday). Indy’s string of hot starts against Tennessee — it had won the first quarter of 10 of the last 11 against the Titans on Sundays — came to a halt.
Patriots Take a Step Back
Most bettors expected a win and cover for the Patriots in Houston against the Texans. That didn’t happen, as Houston (+3) jumped out to a hot start and held on 28-22 on Sunday Night Football.
The Patriots had won 15 of 16 straight-up before Sunday. They’d led after the first quarter in 10 of 11 against the AFC but trailed 7-3 after 15 minutes against Deshaun Watson.
Houston was on an 0-6 ATS slide on Sunday nights and the Under had hit in seven straight home games against AFC teams. Both of those streaks were snapped as well.
Best Pick Of Week 13
Texans (+3) over Patriots
A big 84% of tickets and 83% of money at William Hill was backing the Patriots on Sunday night, but I didn’t see it. The Pats were averaging just 15.8 ppg the previous four weeks, roughly half the 31.8 ppg it was putting up the last eight weeks. The Texans not just covered, but straight-up won both of their last two games as a +3 or +3.5 underdog. They did it again Sunday.
Worst Pick Of Week 13
Jets (-2.5) over Bengals
Two weeks ago, my worst pick was taking the Raiders over the Jets, a game New York handily won 31-3. The Jets followed that with a matchup against the 0-11 Bengals and got thoroughly outplayed in every facet as returned to the Cincy lineup. Perhaps it’s time to stay away from the ridiculously up-and-down Jets.
A Quick Look Ahead
Lines change throughout the week. Here are three to consider for Week 14 before they move:
Rams (+2.5) vs. Seahawks
We keep waiting for the Rams to start to roll, and we may have seen it against the Cardinals. Right now they’re slim home underdogs. The Seahawks have found ways to win but every game has been close.
Chiefs (+3) at Patriots
We don’t get points often with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, so let’s take them against a Patriots team that’s been dominant at home but certainly hasn’t been dominant over the last five weeks.
Broncos (+9.5) at Texans
Drew Lock had a terrific first half before the Chargers rebounded and held the Broncos rookie QB in check in his first professional action. Denver should have confidence in the QB situation for the first time in a while, and it has the run game and defense to hang.