By Adam Thompson | | 7 mins
NFL Week 16 Sunday Free Picks & Predictions: Your 5 Best Bets
All but two teams are going to need to win at least one road game to get to the 2022 Super Bowl. Clearly, some teams are better at playing on the road than others.
Going into Week 16 of the NFL season, four teams have fared better than the others straight up, while four have exceeded expectations and been good at road covers on betting sites.
The Arizona Cardinals (7-1) and New England Patriots (6-1) are the top road teams overall. Each still has a shot at homefield advantage. The Dallas Cowboys (6-2) and Cincinnati Bengals (5-2), teams that may need two road wins to get to the Super Bowl, have shown the mettle. The Cardinals (7-1), Cowboys (7-1) and Indianapolis Colts (5-1) have been the best at covering the spread away from home.
The worst possible playoff teams on the road: The Vikings (3-5), Ravens (3-5) and Steelers (2-4) have struggled straight up. The Buccaneers (2-5) are tied with the Bears for the worst road ATS mark in the NFL. A lot to consider when looking at NFL Week 16 Odds.
Bookies.com NFL handicapper Adam Thompson has hit on over 60% of his best bets in the 2021 NFL season, and over 60% each of the last three seasons. Here are his five best NFL betting for NFL Week 16 Sunday games:
NFL Week 16 Sunday Free Picks
Rams ATS over Vikings
One team has turned it around to win three in a row, all by at least a TD. The other was doubled-up in yards by the Bears last time out. Nearly every Vikings game has come down to the wire, but a bottom-5 ranking against both the run and the pass for this defense, against this offense, spells big trouble. Matthew Stafford rarely played well in Minnesota as the Lions QB, but he brings superior personnel with him this time. (Locked in at -2.5 at Caesars Sportsbook)
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Chargers ATS over Texans
Consistency hasn’t been the strong suit of the Chargers, but nothing has been the strong suit of the Texans, who rank 30th or worse in rushing and pass and run defense. Los Angeles has averaged 32 ppg the last five weeks and put up 28 in all but one of those games. Houston is averaging 11.7 ppg vs. teams not named the Jaguars and hasn’t scored over 22 points in any 12 of those games. (Locked in at -9 at BetMGM)
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Bears ATS over Seahawks
Matt Nagy is clearly holding this team back, but here we go again. Justin Fields and Chicago more than doubled up the Vikings in yards last week, but six failed red-zone trips were ridiculous. Seattle’s defense is just as bad as Minnesota’s – worse, actually – plus Chicago has been better on the road and is unbeaten vs. teams that are currently under .500. Sportsbooks is giving nearly a touchdown to the Bears. We like it. (Locked in at +6.5 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Broncos ATS over Raiders
Denver has flipped between covering and failing to cover the last six weeks. It didn’t cover its NFL odds last week, so it should this week, right? Actually, this is a good spot with the team’s strengths of stopping the pass, which negates Las Vegas’ top strength, and running the ball, which accentuates one of the Raiders’ big issues. Drew Lock is feast-or-famine, but the Raiders have created just one turnover the last three weeks. (Locked in at +1.5 at FanDuel)
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Ravens ATS over Bengals
Baltimore has dropped three in a row – by a combined four points. Now the Ravens face a Bengals team that blitzed them 41-17 in Baltimore. Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley are practically a wash with the way each is playing at QB for the Ravens.
Since the Bengals upset the Ravens, they’ve lost to the Jets, to the Browns by 25 and somehow beat the 49ers and Chargers. A veteran, poised Ravens team can win. (Locked in at +3 at DraftKings)
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