NFL Week 8 Betting Takeaways: Pats Bury Another Huge Spread
Bookies.com NFL betting expert Adam Thompson looks back every Monday at the key betting trends that emerged from the weekend and flags some enticing early lines that NFL bettors might want to jump on.
The New England Patriots are making a mockery of huge point spreads.
The Pats are now 5-1 against the spread when favored by 9.5 or more points at kickoff following Sunday’s 27-13 home win (at -12.5) over the Cleveland Browns.
Overall, New England (8-0) is 6-2 ATS, with the only non-covers a six-point road win over the Bills (at -7) and a 16-point home win over the Jets (at -21), and that was with fumble and INT returns for TDs by New York after it was 30-0.
New England has also led at the end of the first quarter in 13 straight home games. The Pats were up on the Browns 17-0 after one, thanks to three turnovers created by the defense.
Here’s a look back at Week 8 and a quick look ahead to Week 9:
Streaks Live On …
When the Saints are playing in October, back them. They’ve now covered 12 straight games in the month following Sunday’s 31-9 rout of the Cardinals.
Also clockwork: Michael Thomas getting onto the end zone at home. He’s scored at least one TD in seven of the last eight day games held in New Orleans. Thomas had 11 catches for 112 yards and a score vs. Arizona.
For Better or Worse
It hasn’t necessarily translated into victories, but the Giants kept a pair of scoring streaks going. New York lost 31-26 at Detroit Sunday, but it was the sixth game in a row the Over has hit. Even more odd, in all six of those games, the second quarter has been the highest-scoring.
Definitely For Worse
If the Saints flat-out get it done in October, the Bears are the opposite end of the spectrum. With Sunday’s 17-16 home loss to the Chargers as a 3.5-point favorite, the Bears dropped to 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games in October as a favorite.
Seattle bounces back from a loss better than any team, especially when they’re supposed to. Need proof? How about this: With Sunday’s 27-20 win over the Falcons, the Seahawks have now won 18 straight the next week when they’re the favorite.
… And Streaks End
Jags Goes Over
The Under had hit in six of Jacksonville’s last seven home games, but it scored too many points on Sunday. The Jaguars handled the Jets 29-14, edging out the 40.5-point total. Jets RB Le’Veon Bell had scored at least one TD in five of the last seven Sunday games, but he was shut down by the Jaguars, held to 23 yards on nine carries.
Henry Finally Kept Out
Derrick Henry had scored a TD in a whopping eight-consecutive games that his Titans were favored to win. Tennessee was -2.5 on Sunday against the Buccaneers, but Henry was kept out of the end zone, snapping the impressive run. Still, the Titans won 24-20 and Henry had a solid 75 yards on 16 carries.
Streaks Ripped Up in San Fran
TEVIN COLEMAN. UNSTOPPABLE.— NFL (@NFL) October 27, 2019
48 yards for his THIRD TD of the first half! #CARvsSF #GoNiners @Teco_Raww
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Watch free on mobile: https://t.co/a16R5wPShJ pic.twitter.com/I1nJyfwhRN
The 49ers obliterated the Panthers 51-13 to remain unbeaten, and in the process snapped a pile of streaks that had many believing Carolina could at least cover at +5.5.
For one, Carolina had outright won six October games in a row as an underdog. That didn’t happen. Conversely, San Francisco was 0-9 ATS in its last nine Sunday home games when favored. Now it’s 1-9.
The Under had hit in the Niners’ last four games. San Francisco rushed the O/U of 42 by itself. Finally, Panthers star RB Christian McCaffrey had scored the opening TD of Carolina’s last three games. He did score Carolina’s lone TD, but the Niners had already tallied three of them.
Best Pick Of Week 8
Chargers (+3.5) over Bears
I took the Chargers last week at +2.5 against the Titans. That ended with a final minute full of lunacy, and ultimately 23-20 loss. I went back to the well and while it wasn’t pretty, the Chargers’ defense made life miserable for Mitchell Trubisky, forced two critical turnovers that turned into points. The final field goal attempt didn’t matter where I was sitting – which is always the preferred place to sit.
Worst Pick Of Week 8
Panthers (+5.5) over 49ers
Sunday’s final NFL Update:— Adam Thompson (@_Adam_Thompson_) October 28, 2019
It was my only loss of the day but it was a doozy. I thought Jimmy Garoppolo would be stifled by Carolina’s top-ranked pass defense, but it didn’t matter because the Niners’ defense flustered Kyle Allen into three INTs and Tevin Coleman was an unstoppable force. It was 27-3 by halftime. San Francisco is the real deal.
A Quick Look Ahead
Lines change throughout the week. Here are three to consider for Week 9 before they move:
Patriots (-3.5) at Ravens
The fewest points the Patriots have had to lay was 5.5, and that ended in a 33-3 victory. The Ravens are just 2-5 ATS this season including 0-3 at home. They haven’t covered at home in six straight.
Packers (-3) at Chargers
Aaron Rodgers is in top form, he finally has an RB worth mentioning in Aaron Jones and the defense is a ball-hawking unit that can give Philip Rivers fits. L.A. hasn’t covered the spread at home in four games and Green Bay has covered all three on the road.
Browns-Broncos Under 42.5
The Broncos can’t move the ball and the Browns can’t stop from turning it over. The Under is 10-5 in their games so far and it’s hit in 10 of Denver’s last 11 home games.
Make sure to check out our NFL expert picks every week for best bets and predictions for every NFL game against the spread, O/U and moneyline.