NFL Week 9 Betting Takeaways: Most-Backed Teams Go Down
Bookies.com NFL betting expert Adam Thompson looks back every Monday at the key betting trends that emerged from the weekend and flags some enticing early lines that NFL bettors might want to jump on.
Sportsbooks cleaned up in an unpredictable Week 9 of NFL action.
Season-long trends were shattered, and in the process the most-backed teams on Sunday went down. The Green Bay Packers, who was backed 93% of the tickets and 91% of the money wagered at William Hill sportsbooks for their game against the Chargers, lost straight-up 26-11 as four-point favorites. The Cleveland Browns, No. 2 in both categories (85% of tickets, 88% of money), lost 24-19 to the Broncos as four-point favorites as well.
The New England Patriots (-3) were routed 37-20 at the Ravens; they were the third most-backed team (81% of tickets). The New York Jets (-3), the fourth most-wagered team (74% of money), lost 26-18 to the previously winless Dolphins.
Even in the Westgate Last Vegas SuperContest, the prestigious NFL handicapping contest, the top-seven most-backed teams went a combined 0-6-1.
Here’s a look back at Week 9 and a quick look ahead to Week 10:
Streaks Live On …
Carolina has flat-out gotten it done under the sun, and against the AFC South. Following Sunday’s 30-20 home win over the Titans, the Panthers have now won nine straight against the division. They also improved to an amazing 14-1 ATS in their last 15 day games after losing a road game the previous week.
Christian McCaffrey continued his own astonishing streak, scoring two TDs for the sixth time in the last seven Sunday home games.
The Buccaneers lost an entertaining shootout with the Seahawks, falling 40-34 in overtime in Seattle. Tampa Bay has now lost 15 of their last 18 road games against NFC opponents. Defense continues to be optional in Bucs games, as the Over hit for the sixth consecutive game.
The Los Angeles Chargers dominated the Green Bay Packers, rolling to a 26-11 home victory. Being the underdog seems to suit L.A. — it’s the seventh win in nine games the Chargers have won straight-up as an underdog. Melvin Gordon has scored a TD in eight-straight games when the Chargers are underdogs during a day game. The Under improves to 9-1 when the Chargers are not favored at home.
… And Streaks End
No Cover November
Jacksonville went to its home away from home in London and was dismantled by Carolina 26-3. Unfortunately for the Jaguars, that loss picked up a trend that started last year – they’ve failed to cover the spread in five straight games played in November.
The game also snapped a 5-1 Over trend for Jaguars games at Wembley Stadium.
Chiefs End Vikings Runs
Vikings games had become predictable when it comes to the spread. But two long trends ended on Sunday in a last second, 26-23 loss to the Chiefs at Arrowhead.
The favorite had covered in 18 of the last 19 Vikings games until Minnesota (-5.5 at kickoff) lost straight up. The Vikings were also on a 16-4 ATS heater against AFC opponents but Matt Moore and the Chiefs reversed that trend, if only for a week.
Ravens Roll Patriots Run
The Ravens’ impressive 37-20 victory over the Patriots on Sunday night reversed a number of long trends, the most noteworthy of which was New England’s 13-game win streak.
The Ravens had failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 10 home games before Sunday’s win. The 57-point outburst also reversed the offense-challenged Sunday Night Football, which had seen the Under on an 8-2 run.
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Best Pick Of Week 9
Eagles (-4) over Bears
The Eagles pounded the Bills 31-13 the week prior. Buffalo is a team with a great defense and a QB that can run but couldn’t hurt Philadelphia through the air. The Bears are a more-extreme version of the Bills. The first half played out just like that. The Eagles led 19-0 before the Bears adjusted. Philly held on for a 22-14 victory, covering the spread for the fifth time in a row against Chicago.
At the two-minute warning, the Bears have more first downs then they do yards.— Adam Thompson (@_Adam_Thompson_) November 3, 2019
The have zero first downs. #CHIvsPHI
Worst Pick Of Week 9
Browns (-3) over Broncos
The Browns had lost four of five, but against top-level competition. Surely Baker Mayfield could straighten things out and Cleveland could get back on track against newbie QB Brandon Allen and the struggling Broncos, right? Wrong. Denver jumped out to a 14-3 lead on two Allen TDs. The Browns had chances to take the lead in the second half but couldn’t come through. Now the Browns, a trendy preseason AFC pick, are 2-6.
A Quick Look Ahead
Lines change throughout the week. Here are three to consider for Week 10 before they move:
Bills (-2) at Browns
We keep waiting for the Browns to show up and for the Bills to come back to earth, but maybe they’re both where they’re supposed to be. Cleveland’s 30th-ranked run defense is going to have issues, especially now that Devin Singletary is getting lead-back touches.
Ravens (-10) at Bengals
The Ravens are riding high after dismantling Patriots Sunday night. They have the NFL’s top-ranked rush offense, and no team is worse at stopping the run than the Bengals. If Baltimore’s defense can keep Tom Brady in check, it can do the same against Bengals QB Ryan Finley, making his debut.
Giants-Jets Under 43.5
The Jets rank dead-last in total offense and are averaging 11 ppg during their three-game losing streak. The Giants have lost four in a row (17.8 ppg in those games) with a tough Monday nighter against the Cowboys coming up. Scoring isn’t easy for either team right now. Defense and running the ball will be the keys for each side.
Make sure to check out our NFL expert picks every week for best bets and predictions for every NFL game against the spread, O/U and moneyline.
About the Author
NFL writer and expert Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine and CBSSports.com. He has consistently produced profitable seasons in NFL and college football and established himself as an elite MLB expert in 2018, hitting 61 percent of his money line picks for a profit of $4,062 to $100 players, ending the season on a 22-4 run including 100 percent on World Series games. Previously the award-winning sports editor of the Green Bay Press-Gazette, Adam spent nearly 20 years covering the NFL, MLB and college football. Now he shares the insight he gained at Bookies.com through well-reasoned picks and thought-provoking articles and on Twitter at @_Adam_Thompson_.