NFL Wild Card Weekend Best Bets: Rematches, Rivalries & Home Underdogs Kick Off Run To Super Bowl 60
Our NFL Wild Card Weekend Best Bets have a familiar feel. Everything old is new again as the final push to the NFL championship and Super Bowl 60 begins Saturday.
The Rams and Panthers commence the postseason Saturday afternoon with a rematch from Week 13. The Panthers won that game in Charlotte 31-28 The Panthers beat the Rams 31-28 on Nov. 30.
The Bears and Packers meet - for the 213th time - in the Saturday nightcap.
On Sunday, the day begins as the Bills visit the Jaguars. The Jags join the Panthers (and the Bears depending on the book) as home underdogs. The 49ers visit the Eagles in a rematch of the 2023 NFC Championship Game. And the Sunday schedule closes with the Los Angeles Chargers visiting the Patriots in Foxboro. Those teams meet in the postseason for the 5th time, and 4th time since 2007.
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The Texans visit the Steelers Monday night. This marks the 12th playoff appearance for Aaron Rodgers in his 21 seasons. The Steelers nabbed the AFC North with a 26-24 instant-classic win over the Ravens. Pittsburgh survived a last-second missed field goal as the NFL season went down to the final snap Sunday night.
The Seahawks and Broncos earned the top seed and coveted first-round bye in their respective conferences. Both those teams finished 14-3, along with the Patriots.
Bettors can follow and wager responsibly on all these games - and the semifinals of the College Football Playoffs starting Thursday - on our best sports betting apps.
Seahawks, Jaguars, Rams Top Teams Against The Spread
The Seahawks, Jaguars, and Rams not only made the playoffs, but finished tied for the best record in the NFL against the spread at 12-5. The Seahawks finished tops overall, averaging 7.1 above the number this season, and a margin of victory of 11.2 points.
Conversely, the Broncos posted a 7-9-1 record on the line, falling 6 games short in the loss column against their outright record. Cincinnati, Cleveland and Miami all finished with better records ATS than Denver.
Of the 14 teams in the postseason, nine finished above .500 ATS.
Overall in the NFL, ATS favorites went 181-90-1 (66.5%) straight up this season. That number corrected significantly in the final 6 weeks of the regular season, after favorites began the season winning at close to a 75% clip.
Favorites and underdogs almost evenly split against the spread this season, as the favorites went 133-135-4 (49.6%). Away teams held a slight edge on the number, going 136-132-4 (50.7%) on the number.
Over bettors held the edge in totals this season, going 141-125 (52.9%) in games where a total was available ahead of Sunday night.
Here are our NFL Wild Card Weekend odds and best bets.
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NFL Wild Card Weekend: Best Bets & Game-By-Game Analysis
Saturday, January 10
Los Angeles Rams (12-5) at Carolina Panthers (8-9)
4:30 p.m. (FOX)
BUZZ: These teams met on Nov. 30 in game won 31-28 by the Panthers. The Panthers were 10-point underdogs in Week 14 against the Rams. And they opened as 10-point dogs at home Sunday night. The Panthers finished the season with a loss on Saturday to the Buccaneers, closed with an 8-9 record, and clinched the NFC South Sunday while watching Falcons beat the Saints.
Matthew Stafford closed his MVP campaign Sunday with 4 TDs against the Cardinals. LA's 37-20 win snapped a brief but bruising two-game slide. Thw presumably put the Rams in the right frame of mind to make a postseason run after gut-wrenching losses to Seattle and Atlanta.
The last time the Panthers won the NFC South, they reached the Super Bowl behind Cam Newton before losing to Denver. The late afternoon start and mild winter weather of Charlotte should alleviate any concerns of another East Coast-Queen City flop. The Rams' offense can clearly outpace whatever Bryce Young & Company can muster. The Panthers picked off Stafford three times (including a pick-six) in their earlier meeting. Hard to believe Stafford (65% completion rate, 4,448 yards, 46 TDs, 8 INTs this season) delivers a repeat performance. The Rams pull away in this one, and come through on the double-digit number. They're clearly the Wild Card team to watch in the NFC.
Best Bet: LA Rams -10 (-108) Caesars Sportsbook via OddsJam
Green Bay Packers (9-7-1) at Chicago Bears (11-6)
8 p.m. (Amazon Prime)
BUZZ: The Bears and Packers meet for the third time this season, the third time in the postseason, and the 213th time overall. The Packers lead the overall series 109-97-6. The Packers - mostly thanks to Aaron Rodgers - own this matchup in the past two decades, going 17-3 in the the previous 20 meetings. The teams split this season. The line on this game continues to fluctuate - with books having both the Packers and Bears as slight favorites.
The Bears fell short at the gun to the Lions Sunday, whiffing on a shot at the No. 2 seed in the NFC. The Packers took a mini-bye in Week 18, falling 16-3 to the Vikings. The Bears defense will need to force a turnover or two at home for enough cushion. Chicago head coach Ben Johnson shines in game-planning. He's schemed against Green Bay for years. Look for some new wrinkles this week. Caleb Williams delivers down the stretch. The Bears defense does the rest to deliver Chicago an outright victory. Shop around for the best price.
Best Bet: Bears ML (-104) FanDuel via OddsJam
Sunday, January 11
Buffalo Bulls (12-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4)
1 p.m. (CBS)
BUZZ: Jim Nantz and Tony Romo follow Josh Allen to Jacksonville for the lone CBS game in the Wild Card round. While Allen continues to be Allen, the rest of the Bills offense (save for James Cook) struggles to match his other-worldly play.
The Jaguars quietly tied for the best record ATS this season (with the Rams and Seahawks), going 12-5 on the number. Trevor Lawrence, in many ways, plays with the same ferocity and physicality as Allen. Just not as many people have noticed. The Jaguars defense steals the shoe here and stacks up against Allen and Cook - forcing the Bills to rely on a less-than-stellar receiving corps. While the Bills are one-dimensional these days, Travis Etienne Jr. gives Lawrence the ability to vex defenses with play-action. The Jags have won 8 straight, including an impressive 34-20 win at Denver. Jacksonville pushes to score early and play from the front. They'll be jacked in Jacksonville for this one. The Duuuuval crowd helps the Jaguars get over the finish line, especially as home underdogs.
Best Bet: Jaguars +1.5 (-115) FanDuel via OddsJam
San Francisco 49ers (12-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)
4:30 p.m. (FOX)
BUZZ: This game is a rematch of the NFC Championship Game played three years ago. Philly rolled to a 31-7 win at home. The defending Super Bowl champion Eagles captured the NFC East with enough time to take a mini-bye in Week 18. The Birds flew through constant turbulence throughout the season, starting with an early-season Super Bowl Hangover. Can Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts get everyone on the same page for another playoff run? The Eagles, at least, hit the playoffs in relatively good health.
The same cannot be said for the 49ers. Ravaged by injuries all season, the 49ers begin their playoff run without DE Nick Bosa and LB Fred Warner. Meanwhile, LBs Dee Winters and Tatum Bethune fell with injuries in a Week 18 loss to Seattle. In addition, Brock Purdy hurt his hand in that 13-3 defeat. The Niners rode TE George Kittle and RB Christian McCaffrey into the postseason. This dynamic duo, however, won't be enough to get the Niners out of the Linc with the victory. The 49ers' tattered defense gets exposed by Saquon Barkley, Dallas Goedert, and the combustible A.J. Brown. And Purdy morphs into a mix of Mac Jones and Jimmy Garoppolo.
Best Bet: Eagles -3.5 (-105) DraftKings via OddsJam
Los Angeles Chargers (11-5) at New England Patriots (14-3)
8 p.m. (NBC)
BUZZ: The Patriots completed one of the greatest single-season turnarounds in NFL history Sunday by sinking the Dolphins 38-10 and closing with a 14-3 record. The Patriots finished 4-13 in the past two consecutive seasons. In the past year, the Patriots hired their third coach in 3 years (Mike Vrabel), saw their QB emerge as an MVP candidate, won the AFC East, and earned the No. 2 spot in the AFC. Everything old is new again. Jim Harbaugh and Chargers tanked their way into this matchup, taking the mini-bye in Week 18 in a 19-3 loss at Denver that iced the 7th seed and this matchup. Like Vrabel, Harbaugh brings a hard-nosed approach to his team.
The Patriots played through one of the softest schedules in NFL history - but dominated nonetheless. The Bolts pose a tough out - even at home on a chilled New England evening. QBs Justin Herbert and Drake Maye pose dual-threats for opposing defenses. This game offers one of them a significant chance to break through to the next level in the postseason. Both teams enter this matchup fully healthy at their key spots. A warm-for-Foxboro-but-rainy forecast favors the Patriots (11-5-1 ATS), who have leaned into the run of late. They face a team in the Chargers (8-8-1 ATS) that has played 12 of its games either indoors or Florida. A defensive clash awaits.
Best Bet: Under 45.5 (-110) DraftKings via OddsJam
Monday, January 12
Houston Texans (12-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)
8:15 p.m. (ESPN)
BUZZ: Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers returns to playoffs - thanks in part to a 44-yard missed field goal at the gun. The wide-righter off the foot of Ravens' kicker Tyler Loop delivered the AFC North title to Pittsburgh, and this home playoff date with Houston. Rodgers drove the Steelers for the game-winning score, which came in the form of a 26-yard TD pass to Calvin Austin III with 55 seconds to play. This week's game, however, has the lowest ticket "get-in" price of any NFL Wild Card Weekend Best Bets. That's perhaps a tell that even the locals don't give the Steelers much of a chance against the Texans. And a reminder of the Steelers' playoff drought that goes back to January 2017.
The Texans remain the Wild Card Team To Watch in the AFC. Houston closed the regular season with 8 straight wins, beating 3 playoff teams (Jacksonville, Buffalo and the LA Chargers) along the way. The Texans nearly knocked off the Chiefs last January on the frozen tundra of Arrowhead. This time, Park Avenue won't stand in their way. Houston QB C.J. Stroud delivers a clean performance, Nico Collins makes the key catches, and the Texans defense does the rest in the win and cover.
Best Bet: Texans -3.5 (-105) DraftKings via OddsJam
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