Not every underdog is going to win or cover the spread in the NFL Wild Card Weekend. But at least one of them will win, and if trends play out, as many as four of them could cover. 

Underdogs are a robust 20-10 against the spread over the last six seasons, a 66.7% win rate that would make any backer happy. They’ve won straight-up a decent 43.3% of the time, too. 

That especially benefits a pair of home dogs in Wild Card Weekend. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were 8-3 against the spread as a dog this season (72.7%), the best of any NFL team that was an underdog more than once. The Houston Texans went 6-3 (66.7%), the second-best among teams that were dogs more than three times. 

Both are home in WCW – as underdogs. That said, each plays a team it already lost to, and failed to cover, as underdogs, at home. 

There are six games over three days on the NFL Wild Card Weekend slate. Bookies.com handicapper Adam Thompson, who is 13-3 in his last 14 NFL picks , reveals his top plays for each game on the Saturday slate.  Elevate your wagering experience by betting at our best betting apps.

Browns vs. Texans Odds

Browns vs. Texans Point Spread Pick

Best Bet: Browns -2.5 (-110) at ESPN BET

A Week 16 rematch, a game in which Joe Flacco threw for 368 yards, and the Browns won 36-22. No C.J. Stroud in that one, and that obviously makes a difference here. But the Texans’ defense is in worse shape than the first meeting, including the missing three top LBs and a safety. 

Just as in that last meeting, the Browns’ strengths match up well with the Texans’ weaknesses (pass O vs. pass D), while the opposite is true when Houston has the ball. Cleveland ranks Top 5 in QB pressure and has forced 12 turnovers in the last five weeks. Get the Browns for the best odds at ESPN BET.

Browns vs. Texans Top Player Props

Joe Flacco, Over 271.5 Pass Yards 

Odds: -115 at BetMGM

Flacco has led the Browns to four straight wins. In those games, he’s thrown for 311, 374, 368 and 309 yards. One of those was against the Texans, in Houston. The banged-up Texans D has struggled to contain pass-first offenses. Cleveland doesn’t run often; don’t expect a change now. Lock in the Flacco Over at BetMGM.

Dolphins vs. Chiefs Odds

Dolphins vs. Chiefs Spread Pick

Best Bet: Chiefs -4 (-110) at DraftKings

Tua Tagovailoa has been pretty bad when he plays in game-time temps under 70 degrees. Saturday at Arrowhead is expecting sub-zero wind chills at kickoff. Miami’s defense, which allows 17.3 ppg at home, gives up 29.4 ppg on the road under normal conditions. They lost 21-14 in KC nine weeks ago. We could see a similar score and similar result. Patrick Mahomes has been great at home in the playoffs, winning eight of nine with an average margin of victory of 10.9 ppg, and most of those game KC was without a top-shelf defense. Lock in the Chiefs to cover at DraftKings. 

Dolphins vs. Chiefs Top Player Props

Isiah Pacheco, Over 84.5 Toal Yards  

Odds: -114 at FanDuel

Pacheco has gained 130 and 110 yards in two of his last three games, and hit 89+ total yards in three of four. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is less part of the offense, Jerick McKinnon remains injured, and the cold temps should take the air out of the ball to an extent. That Miami’s defense is hobbled and its offense is likely to struggle means more of a focus on the run game for Andy Reid. That means a lot of touches for Pacheco. Lock in the Over on Pacheco at FanDuel.