Week 10 NFL Best Bets: Brady Bowl II Tests Mettle Of Maye, Patriots

Brady Bowl II hogs the spotlight for our Week 10 NFL Best Bets. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers play host to the New England Patriots Sunday. Jim Nantz and Tony Romo call the 1 p.m. game for CBS. This game marks the second time these teams have met since Brady jumped ship from the Patriots to Tampa Bay ahead of the 2020 season.
Both the Patriots and Buccaneers own first place in their respective divisions. The 7-2 SU and 5-3 ATS Patriots slipped past the Falcons at home Sunday 24-23, thanks in part to a missed Falcons PAT. The 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS Bucs come off a bye.
An eighth win for QB Drake Maye and the Patriots this season would equal the amount of games New England won in its past two seasons - combined.
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Buccaneers On Roll Since Tampa Tom
Since acquiring Brady, the Buccaneers have yet to miss the postseason. The Bucs have won the NFC South 4 straight seasons, including 3 straight behind Baker Mayfield since Brady’s second and final retirement. Tampa Bay won Super Bowl 55 in Brady’s first year in Tampa Bay, as he joined forces with Rob Gronkowski.
Since losing Brady, the Patriots have yet to win a playoff game. The Patriots own 1st place in the AFC East, a division they have not won since Brady’s final season there in 2019.
Brady Bowl I took place on October 3, 2021 at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro. Brady and the Bucs slipped past New England in the rain with a 19-17 win.
NFL Week 10 Betting Schedule Preview
Our Week 10 NFL Best Bets begin Thursday night when the first-place Denver Broncos carry a double-digit line and play host to the Las Vegas Raiders in an AFC West showdown. At 7-2, the Broncos hold the No. 2 seed in the AFC. The Falcons and Colts open the Sunday schedule with a 9:30 a.m. ET game in Berlin. There are seven games in the 1 p.m, Sunday slot. FOX has a pair of 4:25 p.m. games: Detroit Lions at Washington Commanders, and LA Rams at San Francisco.
The Sunday night game features the LA Chargers facing Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers in Pittsburgh.
Monday night, the Eagles come off the bye to visit Green Bay.
Teams on the bye this week: Kansas City, Cincinnati, Dallas, and Tennessee.

Week 10 NFL Best Bets: Odds & Picks
| DATE | MATCHUP | BEST BET | TIME / TV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu., Nov. 6 | Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders | UNDER 42.5 | 8:15 p.m. (Prime) |
| Sun., Nov. 9 | Atlanta Falcons vs. Indianapolis Colts | ATL +6.5 | 9:15 a.m. (NFL) |
| Sun., Nov. 9 | New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Bucs | NE +2.5 | 1 p.m. (CBS) |
| Sun., Nov. 9 | N.Y. Giants at Chicago Bears | CHI -3.5 | 1 p.m. (FOX) |
| Sun., Nov. 9 | Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins | UNDER 50.5 | 1 p.m. (CBS) |
| Sun., Nov. 9 | Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings | BAL -3 | 1 p.m. (CBS) |
| Sun., Nov. 9 | Cleveland Browns at N.Y. Jets | CLE +2.5 | 1 p.m. (CBS) |
| Sun., Nov. 9 | New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers | CAR -4.5 | 1 p.m. (FOX) |
| Sun., Nov. 9 | Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans | JAX +1.5 | 1 p.m. (CBS) |
| Sun., Nov. 9 | Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks | SEA -6.5 | 4:05 p.m. (CBS) |
| Sun., Nov. 9 | LA Rams at San Francisco 49ers | SF +3.5 | 4:25 p.m. (FOX) |
| Sun., Nov. 9 | Detroit Lions at Washington Commanders | DET -7.5 | 4:25 p.m. (FOX) |
| Sun., Nov. 9 | Pittsburgh Steelers at LA Chargers | PIT +3 | 8:20 p.m. (NBC) |
| Mon., Nov. 10 | Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers | PHI +2.5 | 8:15 p.m. (ABC) |
Favorite Underdog / Value Total (O/U)
# – Game played in Berlin, Germany
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Week 10 NFL Best Bets: Game-By-Game Breakdown
Thursday, Nov. 6
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders, 8:15 p.m. (PRIME)
Buzz: The Broncos ripped off their 6th straight win Sunday, taking down the host Texans 18-15 in overtime after a Will Lutz field goal. The Broncos have gone under the points total in 6 of 9 games, including under 41.5 on Sunday. They’ve covered just 4 times and have yet to cover on a number larger than 7 points. This line of 10 points doesn’t fit the projected total of 42.5. When in doubt, take the under in our Week 10 NFL Best Bets.
Best Bet: Under 42.5 Points (-110) DraftKings via OddsJam

Sunday, Nov. 9
Atlanta Falcons vs. Indianapolis Colts, 9:30 a.m. (NFL)
At Olympic Stadium Berlin
Buzz: Both teams probably wanted to leave the country after Week 9. The Falcons clawed back from a 21-7 deficit only to lose 24-23 at New England following a missed PAT in the 4th quarter. The Falcons forced a pair of Drake Maye turnovers and kept New England out of the end zone in the 2nd half. Danny Dimes couldn’t pitch pennies as the Colts fell off their high horse at Pittsburgh in Week 9. Indy committed 6 turnovers in a 27-20 loss. The Falcons keep this one close with pressure on Daniel Jones, as their offense matches well with the Colts.
Best Bet: Falcons +6.5 (-105) Hard Rock Bet via OddsJam
New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 p.m. (CBS)
Buzz: Brady Bowl II. TB12’s former teams meet for the 2nd time since he left New England. (The Bucs and Brady beat New England 19-17 in 2021.) The 7-2 Patriots have won 6 straight and remain a perfect 4-0 on the road. Drake Maye showed some ugly glimpses of his rookie self in turning over the ball twice Sunday. But he and the Patriots survived a 24-23 win over Atlanta. Tampa Bay (6-2) comes off the bye. Its defense stacks well against the run. The Bucs will force Maye to walk the plank and win this with his arm. Baker Mayfield continues to work his wizardry despite an injury-depleted lineup that will likely be missing Chris Godwin (as well as Mike Evans). Look for lots of Cade Otton. This number smells just a bit. It dares you not to back the Pirate Ship. We accept that challenge - and the under - in our Week 10 NFL Best Bets.
Best Bet: Patriots +2.5 (-105) ESPN BET via OddsJam
New York Giants at Chicago Bears, 1 p.m. (FOX)
BUZZ: The Bears won a wild 47-42 affair against the Bengals Sunday. The Giants, however, have an NFL defense. Don’t expect another 47 points from Caleb Williams & Company. The Giants lost whatever mojo they had with that crushing loss to the Broncos, and a season-ending injury to Cam Skattebo. Sunday, they allowed Christian McCaffrey to amass 173 yards from scrimmage in a 34-24 loss to the 49ers. The Bears (5-3) are suddenly in the NFC playoff hunt. A clean game from Caleb Williams gets it done here. A reasonable request at home.
Best Bet: Bears -3.5 (-105) FanDuel via OddsJam
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m. CBS
Buzz: This game opened with the biggest number of Sunday, floating between 8.5 and 9.5. Beyond the spread, the Bills and Dolphins represent divergent ends of the NFL spectrum. The Fins fired their GM last week and traded edge rusher Jaelan Phillips Monday. Coach Mike McDaniel got the dreaded “vote of confidence” and their franchise QB is in shambles. The Bills come into this one off a dominant (yes, it went down to the last play) 28-21 win over the Chiefs. Last week, the Dolphins were 8.5-point dogs at home and lost 28-6. We’re not sure if Miami hits double-digits this week, as well. And Buffalo may just run clock the entire second half.
Best Bet: Under 50.5 Points (-110) DraftKings via OddsJam
Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m. CBS
Buzz: J.J, McCarthy has arrived. The sophomore QB starred in Minnesota’s (+9.5) 27-24 upset win at Detroit. The Ravens, meanwhile, have weathered a bundle of crucial injuries and believe they’re back in the playoff race. Lamar Jackson returned in full form Thursday with a four-touchdown performance and 28-6 win over the Dolphins. Both QBs have an opportunity here to stack some impressive numbers, especially inside the fast track of U.S. Bank Stadium. Despite a pair of mediocre records, both teams appear to be trending in the right direction with their preferred QB1s at full strength. The Ravens offer just a bit more depth in our Week 10 NFL Best Bets.
Best Bet: Ravens -3 (-120) Hard Rock Bet via OddsJam
Cleveland Browns at New York Jets, 1 p.m. (CBS)
Buzz: Both teams come off the bye. The Jets won their Super Bowl in Week 8 with a thrilling comeback 39-38 win over the defenseless Cincinnati Bengals. Now, it’s back to reality against the NFL’s No. 2 defense in terms of yards allowed. The Browns were caught up in the Red, White and Blue tide of the Patriots in a 32-13 loss. The QBs in this one: Dillion Gabriel vs. Justin Fields. Brady vs. Manning it ain’t. There’s a reason why this game holds the lowest total of the season at 36.5 points. The best defense wins.
Best Bet: Browns +2.5 (-115) ESPN BET via OddsJam
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m. (FOX)
Buzz: The Panthers own a share of the second-best record ATS in the NFL at 6-3. The Saints stand alone with the worst number on the line at 2-7. The Panthers pulled off a stunner on Sunday, manhandling the Packers at Lambeau Field in a gritty 16-13 win as 13-point underdogs. Tyler Shough became the Saints’ 10th starting QB since Drew Brees last week. The Rams welcomed him with a 34-10 beatdown. The Panthers are thinking playoffs. The Saints are thinking draft position.
Best Bet: Panthers -4.5 (-110) ESPN BET via OddsJam
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans, 1 p.m. (CBS)
Buzz: Suddenly the AFC South has a pulse, at least in terms of teams not from Indianapolis winning the division. The 5-3 Jaguars sit just a game back in the loss column and have two games remaining against the Colts. Jacksonville won the first meeting between these teams 17-10 in Week 3. Trevor Lawrence completed just 20 of his 40 attempts. C.J. Stroud threw 2 picks and the Jags forced a crucial Nico Collins fumble. Both teams went into overtime Sunday. Jacksonville stopped a 2-point conversion to hold on for a 30-29 win over the Raiders. The Texans fell short 18-15 to Denver. Jacksonville’s Liam Coen launches his campaign for “Coach Of The Year” honors this week with a big road win.
Best Bet: Jaguars +1.5 (-110) BetMGM via OddsJam
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks, 4:05 p.m. (CBS)
Buzz: The Cardinals played Monday. Meanwhile, the Sam Darnold Express rolled through Landover and the Washington Commanders Sunday night by a 38-14 score. Darnold went 16-for-16, for 282 yards and 4 TDs. In. The. First. Half. At 6-2 both ways, Seattle owns a piece of the AFC West lead and the best mark ATS in the NFL. The Seahawks average 8.6 points above the spread.
Best Bet: Seahawks -6.5 (-110) FanDuel via OddsJam
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers, 4:25 p.m. (FOX)
Buzz: The Rams tore up the Saints Sunday, scoring in all 4 quarters during a 34-10 walk-over. Matt Stafford threw for 284 yards and 4 TDs. The 49ers ran over and through the Giants at MetLife, but gave up 14 points in the 4th quarter in a 34-24 win. CMC amassed 106 yards rushing on 28 carries and 1 TD for San Francisco and added another 67 yards and TD receiving. At least we know what to expect when each team has the ball. Last defensive stop wins it. The 49ers have covered 8 straight times as underdogs against the Rams. Let’s make it nine. As long as Mac Jones keeps it UNDER 2 turnovers.
Best Bet: 49ers +3.5 (-110) BetMGM via OddsJam
Detroit Lions at Washington Commanders, 4:25 p.m. (FOX)
Buzz: Last season, the Commanders stunned the Lions 45-31 in the Divisional round at Detroit. Jayden Daniels threw for 299 yards and a pair of TDs. That was then. This is now. Daniels left Sunday night’s embarrassing 38-14 loss to the Seahawks with a left elbow injury. His status remains questionable. But the Commanders continue to show their age and the cracks that come along with having the NFL’s oldest roster (on Week 1). The 9-point-favorite Lions got bushwacked at home by the Vikings Sunday, 27-24. The tattered Commanders offer Dan Campbell and Jared Goff a perfect get-right opportunity. The Lions share a piece of the NFL’s best record ATS. And they’ve covered in 12 straight after a loss.
Best Bet: Lions -7.5 (-110) DraftKings via OddsJam
Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers, 8:20 p.m. (NBC)
Buzz: Despite this game taking place inside SoFi Stadium, expect it to feel, look, and sound like a home game for the Steelers. The Mike Tomlin-Jim Harbaugh matchup offers intrigue. The much-maligned Steelers defense flexed on Indiana Jones and forced 6 turnovers in a 27-20 upset win over the Colts. But Pittsburgh allowed 13 points in the 4th quarter, giving the Chargers plenty of film through which to pick. Through all the muck and to the surprise of no one, the Steelers own 1st place in the AFC North at 5-3. The 6-3 Chargers struggle against the number and stand just 3-6 ATS. LA whiffed on the number Sunday in a ho-hum 27-20 victory at Tennessee. The Chargers have covered just once in their past 7 games. The Steelers won 8 of their past 10 games outright as Sunday underdogs. The Chargers’ offensive line, meanwhile, lost both its right and left tackles Sunday. Joe Alt and Bobby Hurt remain questionable.
Best Bet: Steelers +3 (-105) DraftKings via OddsJam
Monday, November 10
Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers, 8:15 p.m. (ABC)
Buzz: The Eagles adjusted their flight plan with two straight wins heading into their bye.
The defending Super Bowl champs also added three notable names on defense ahead of the trade deadline. Edge rusher Jaelan Phillips joins CBs Jaire Alexander and Michael Carter in shoring up the Eagles stretched-thin defensive unit. The Packers Sunday sputtered at home in a 16-13 loss to the underdog Panthers. The Eagles finally appear to be whole after those trades. They’ve won 7 straight against teams with a winning record and covered in 4 straight as underdogs. Woof. Eagles. Woof.
Best Bet: Eagles +2.5 (-115) FanDuel via OddsJam
Denver Broncos at
Las Vegas Raiders
Atlanta Falcons vs.
Indianapolis Colts
New England Patriots at
Tampa Bay Bucs
N.Y. Giants at
Chicago Bears
Buffalo Bills at
Miami Dolphins
Baltimore Ravens at
Minnesota Vikings
Cleveland Browns at
N.Y. Jets
New Orleans Saints at
Carolina Panthers
Jacksonville Jaguars at
Houston Texans
Arizona Cardinals at
Seattle Seahawks
LA Rams at
San Francisco 49ers
Detroit Lions at
Washington Commanders
Pittsburgh Steelers at
LA Chargers
Philadelphia Eagles at
Green Bay Packers
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