The 2022 Japanese Grand Prix is almost upon us as Suzuka returns after two years away from the Formula 1 calendar, and Max Verstappen is in pole position to win his second World Championship. 

We predicted that would be a long shot in Singapore, where his teammate Sergio Perez took a shock victory, but Verstappen is much closer to a second title here in Japan.

Here are the race odds on sports betting sites and betting apps. 

2022 Japanese Grand Prix Odds

Odds via BetMGM and accurate as of publication.

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Singapore threw up a surprise with a wet-dry qualifying session, in which Leclerc took pole, before the Ferrari driver lost the lead on Lap 1 for Perez to win the fourth Grand Prix of his career.

Now the field heads to Japan after a two-year hiatus thanks to Covid-19 and this time around it looks like Verstappen could well win the title. He needs victory, plus the bonus point for fastest lap, to clinch his second championship.

Early signs are that Red Bull – who are on a run of six consecutive Grand Prix victories – will enjoy a slight pace advantage around Suzuka, with Leclerc having already said they’ll be “very strong” in Japan. 

But with rain set to hit and a smaller chance of adverse weather on Sunday, the grid could be shaken up. Verstappen remains the favorite, according to sports betting apps, on heading into Japan, where 12 drivers have sealed a world championship title in the past. 

2022 Japanese Grand Prix Betting Predictions

Last time out we backed Leclerc to take pole position and he did so. This season, Ferrari have held the advantage in qualifying but fallen behind Red Bull in the race, and that may be the case once again in Japan. 

At +125 on BetMGM Sportsbook, Leclerc is favorite to take pole position in Japan and I’d back those odds, given Ferrari took pole position here in 2019 and, again, their car seems set up to deliver over one lap. 

But Verstappen will be coming in hot and hoping to give himself the best chance of pole position. It’s too close to call between him and Leclerc but if you want to back the Red Bull championship leader, BetMGM are offering F1 betting odds of +150, as are Caesars Sportsbook.

Rain might shake things up in Friday practice but it’s less likely to do so on Saturday. In dry conditions, it’ll be a straight fight for pole between Red Bull and Ferrari. If you’d like to play it a bit safer – as Perez is back on form – BetMGM are offering +125 for Red Bull to take pole position, regardless of the driver.

When it comes to the race, Japan normally holds straight-forward contests, despite its reputation for fraught drama (see Senna vs Prost). Since 2009, the winner here has come from no lower than third on the grid, and with larger cars this season, passing for the lead will be difficult – which is why BetMGM is offering -138 for the winner to come from pole position. 

Regardless of whether he starts on pole position or not, I’d back Verstappen to win with odds of -190 on Caesars, which can be added to a parlay. 

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At +375, Leclerc’s odds are more attractive but Red Bull are on a streak of six wins and that seems likely to continue, given Suzuka shares traits with Spa-Francorchamps – where Verstappen won from 14^th on the grid and by a huge margin, too. 

While it’s likely that Verstappen will clinch the title in Japan, he needs the fastest lap to do so. That seems likely too. For Verstappen to take pole, race win and fastest lap, BetMGM are offering +350, which is possible. 

Add to your bet slip a small punt on Verstappen to win ahead of Perez in second and Leclerc in third for a lucrative +1100. In Japan, the top two teams normally share the podium; it’s rare that anybody other than the championship contenders land in the top three, and that means that Mercedes might have a tough race here. 

For Verstappen and Leclerc to finish in the top two, BetMGM are offering +150 – a sensible call to make.

When it comes to points, the pattern goes that the top midfield teams normally score well in Japan while backmarkers find it tough to break into the top 10. Therefore, odds of +105 for Alpine to have both drivers in the top 10, and +160 for McLaren to have both drivers in the top 10, are worth taking on Caesars Sportsbook. 

Both teams are well ahead in the close fight for fourth place in the constructors’ championship, and both are likely to make it into the points. 

Finally, with Perez on form and the Mexican Grand Prix coming up, back the Red Bull driver to beat Leclerc in the drivers’ championship with odds of +190 via BetMGM, who are offering +225 to be the antepost winner of the championship without Verstappen. 

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