2024 The Open Championship: Best Bets, Tips & Predictions
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Royal Troon will host 158 of the world’s top golfers for the 152nd edition of The Open Championship, which tees off early Thursday morning (US time) from Scotland.
Royal Troon challenges every facet of the game, from its wind-swept hills near the water to its craterous bunkers, plus the infamous Par-3, 128-yard “Postage Stamp” eighth hole that has derailed many championship hopes.
Despite the myriad challenges, Scottie Scheffler remains the overwhelming favorite to win the final major of 2024. The Open Championship Odds have Scheffler at +450, well ahead of Rory McIlroy at +800. The only other golfers at +2000 or lower are Xander Schauffele (+1100), Collin Morikawa (+1400), Ludvig Aberg (+1600) and Bryson DeChambeau (+1800).
Boost your sports betting app wagering experience by following Bookies.com veteran handicapper Adam Thompson’s bestgolf odds for golf betting.
2024 The Open Championship Picks & Best Bets
Top 10: Xander Schauffele
Odds: +125 at BetMGM
In order to survive at Royal Troon, one must avoid pitfalls right away. The goal is to get to the green efficiently, but also not have your score blow up if it doesn’t. Greens In Regulation and Scrambling can help us determine who has a better shot than others here.
Schauffele is the top scrambler on the PGA Tour and 11th in GIR. He’s also No. 5 in Strokes Gained: Approach, and he has a better shot than most to make up for bad luck or bad winds that may come his way.
Scheffler has just one win this season, though it was at the PGA Championship. But he has 11 Top 10 finishes in 16 tournaments. This course suits him better than most. We’ll take plus odds for another Top 10.
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Top 5: Ludvig Aberg
Odds: +360 at DraftKings
Aberg’s game isn’t as polished as Schauffele’s, but he’s just getting started. He is, however, perhaps more likely to “go for it” if he’s in contention late. He has seven Top 10’s in 15 starts, four of which were Top 5, including at last week’s Scottish Open and at The Memorial and The Masters. The Swede has made it clear he idolizes countryman Henrik Stenson’s win here in 2016, the last time The Open was on this course. He’ll go for it.
Top 20: Aaron Rai
Odds: +220 at DraftKings
We’re going conservative with Rai here, but this might be the favorite pick of the weekend. Rai has back-to-back-to-back Top 7 finishes on the four and his game should play very well on this links course. He’s Top 10 on the tour this season in scrambling, GIR and Strokes Gained: Approach. Few golfers are as hot as Rai. Let’s ride it with great odds here.
Top 20: Alex Noren
Odds: +300 at Caesars
Noren gets out of trouble as well as any golfer out there, and this course is rife with issues. That’s how he can stay in the hunt, though his approach and getting to the green stats are solid as well, and his putting is above average. He finished 10th at the Scottish Open last week and was 12th at the PGA Championship, so he can play at this level.
Top 20: Louis Oosthuizen
Odds: +220 at FanDuel
We’re going heavy on Top 20s this week. Oosthuizen isn’t going to win, but he’s a hang-around type of guy, and perhaps this course suits him better than anyone. On the LIV Tour, Lous ranks No. 1 in Scrambling, with a percentage that would beat Scheffler’s on the PGA, and No. 3 in fairways hit and putting. Slow and steady may not win this race, but Top 20? Why not?
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The Open Championship Picks
$10,000 or Higher
Xander Schauffele ($11,200) ranks fourth on the charts behind Scheffler, Bryson DeChambeau and Rory McIlroy. Xander has just as good a shot as any of them – better, one could argue – and the price is more reasonable.
Ludvig Aberg ($10,100) is going to compete to win, and that could pay off as he’s a distant sixth in pricing compared to the Big Four, all of which are more than $1K higher.
$8,000 - $9,999
Hideki Matsuyama ($8,500) ranks No. 2 in the PGA in Scrambling, and he finished Top 25 or better in nine of his last 12 tournaments. He’s missed just one cut all year, though it was last week in Scotland.
$7,999-Under
Aaron Rai ($7,300) will be in all our lineups this week. His game is suited for this course, he’s red-hot with the irons and he’s cheap.
Alex Noren ($7,200) is a low-risk pick at this price, a golfer who’s hitting well and should certainly make the cut. He’s missed two of the last three cuts, which is a concern, but was 10th last week and Top 25 in nine of the previous 10, so hopefully the hiccup is over.
SI Woo Kim ($6,800) is 18-of-19 on cuts this season, and Top 15 in the PGA in Scrambling and Strokes Gained: Approach. His putting has been the issue, but at this price, he could be worth a flyer on this course.
Ben Griffin ($5,900) is the best low-low golfer out there. He just needs to make the cut for this price to be worth it, and he’s made it in four straight and 17-of-23 this season. He’s Top 40 in putting, Top 50 in GIR, and 11th in Scrambling, so there’s reason to believe he can sneak into the weekend and add points to lineups.
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