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2023 Valspar Championship Best DFS Picks & Top Golf Plays

Dan Kilbridge for Bookies.com

Dan Kilbridge  | 7 mins

2023 Valspar Championship Best DFS Picks & Top Golf Plays

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The Valspar Championship doesn’t have a $25 million purse like the Players. It doesn’t have stadium seating with hundreds of thousands of domestic beer-fueled fans trying their best to be seen in Phoenix. It doesn’t have a field like the ones that have flocked to newly-minted designated events in Los Angeles and Orlando. 

Truth be told, Valspar doesn’t need any of those things. It’s a long-running event on a damn fine golf course with community ties, annually providing one of the best possible Masters tune-ups at Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course in Palm Harbor, Florida. 

That’s good enough for players like Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth to make the trip this week, setting the stage for another thrilling daily fantasy sports and golf betting weekend. 

This is a ball strikers track, one that keeps players honest and rewards accuracy and course management. 

The best irons players always have a decent chance and we’ve seen a unique run of consecutive repeat champions – Paul Casey got it done in 2018 and 2019, while Sam Burns is going for the three-peat this year having bested the field in 2022 and 2021. 

Last week: Scottie Scheffler reclaimed the No. 1 spot in the world rankings with a five-shot victory at the Players Championship. The reigning Masters champ had a price of $10,600 for the week at DraftKings and included in 23.51% of lineups in the Fantasy Golf Millionaire contest. 

Tyrrell Hatton ($8,300/17.22%) finished second, while Viktor Hovland ($8,900/24.94%) and Tom Hoge ($7,400/4.84%) finished T-3, seven shots behind Scheffler. 

2023 Valspar Championship

Course Location: Palm Harbor, Florida

Course: Innisbrook Resort, Copperhead Course: 7,340 yards, Par 71. 

Greens: Bermuda

Past Winners

  • 2022 – Sam Burns, 267 (-17)
  • 2021 – Sam Burns, 267 (-17)
  • 2020 – Cancelled
  • 2019 – Paul Casey, 276 (-8)
  • 2018 – Paul Casey, 274 (-10)
  • 2017 – Adam Hadwin, 270 (-14)
  • 2016 – Charl Schwartzel, 277 (-7)
  • 2015 – Jordan Spieth, 274 (-10)
  • 2014 – John Senden, 277 (-10)
  • 2013 – Kevin Streelman, 274 (-10)

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2023 Valspar Championship Picks By Price

11K-9K Range: Best DFS Picks for Valspar Championship

Justin Thomas, $10,900: Given the disparity between the top two players and the rest of the field, we’re presented with a choice right out of the gate – Justin Thomas or Jordan Spieth? The latter won this tournament in 2015, but Spieth missed the cut in 2018 and hasn’t been back since. Thomas has more recent success here, including a T-3 last year and T-13 in 2022. 

He hit it much better last week than the T-60 finish at the Players indicates, but it was his worst putting performance in North America since the 2021 Memorial. That’s not as much of a factor here, with smaller greens and a chance for Thomas to show off the elite short game around the putting surface. 

Tommy Fleetwood, $9,800: Fleetwood’s results haven’t been anything special lately, but overall the iron play has been strong and the game looks sharp after two very difficult tests at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and Players Championship. 

Copperhead is a tough course as well, but it asks different questions – ones Fleetwood is more suited to answer with his approach shots and touch around the green. He took to it right away with a T-16 finish and four rounds of even-par or better in his first Valspar appearance a year ago, and we expect him to have an even better week in Tampa this time around.

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9K-8K Range: Best DFS Picks for Valspar Championship

Gary Woodland, $8,600: Young gun Sam Burns has gone back-to-back here, but the veterans have fared quite well over the years – Paul Casey revived his career here with two straight victories, his first on Tour since 2009. Woodland is still hanging tough two months shy of his 39th birthday, and this is a course where his cold putter shouldn’t hurt that much. 

The irons were very sharp at the players and that’s far more important at Copperhead, and he should be in good position having gained strokes off the tee in 10 consecutive tournaments. Woodland also won here in 2011 and finished T-21 last year, so we know he likes the course. This could be a big comeback weekend for the 2019 U.S. Open champ. 

Brandon Wu, $8,500: We love Wu in his current form on this golf course. He went T-14 at the Honda and T-19 at the Players in his last two starts, and he was T-2 at Pebble Beach back in early February. 

The game has been a little erratic at times, but the 26-year-old has the raw talent to get by and score when something isn’t clicking. He was T-33 in his Valspar debut last year, including an impressive 6-under 65 in Round 2. He’s clearly gaining confidence and he knows this is a field he can compete against on a favorable track. 

8K-7K Range: Best DFS Picks for Valspar Championship

Ryan Gerard, $7,300: While not exactly a household name (yet), the two-time All-American out of North Carolina tore it up on the PGA Tour Canada last year and couldn’t be playing better having gotten his first taste of the big Tour. 

He finished solo fourth in just his second ever Tour start at the Honda last month, and he followed it up with a T-11 at the Puerto Rico Open. He was also T-3 in his most recent Korn Ferry start in mid-February. That’s a heater we don’t want to miss out on with a field like this, and we’ll gladly put the 23-year-old in the lineup at this price despite his lack of course experience. 

Mark Hubbard, $7,100: Here’s a journeyman who we like this week, despite a lack of successful course history. Hubbard hit it beautifully at the Players Championship for a T-35 finish, and he was T-42 in his second most-recent start at the Honda Classic. 

He seems to putt better on Bermuda, and theoretically this is a great course for his game and steady, accurate performance off the tee. At 33 years old and currently sitting 89th in the FedeEx Cup, Hubbard has a real shot to climb the rankings and get into the elevated events in 2023. Weeks like this are life-changing opportunities, and it looks like he’s ready to take advantage. 

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7K and Below: Best DFS Picks for Valspar Championship

Zach Johnson, $6,800: You’ll take what you can get in the bargain bin this week, and we’re thrilled to find Johnson below the $7,000 mark. The game obviously isn’t what it once was at age 47, but the two-time major winner has made the cut in eight of his last nine tournaments – including a T-12 at the Honda Classic. 

That’s a long, brutal test for anyone – let alone one of the shortest hitters on Tour. This course is much more up Johnson’s alley and he’s finished T-29 or better in three of his last four Valspar starts. One could do a lot worse than Johnson in this price range. 

Lucas Glover, $6,700: There’s usually two reasons you stop picking veteran players who’ve shown successful course history – either their game is currently in shambles (Jason Dufner) or they aren’t long enough to realistically compete at the course. 

Neither is true for Glover – he’s still got enough pop to compete at a shorter track like Copperhead, and he’s been playing fine with a T-51 at the Players and a T-39 in Phoenix last month. He also tends to play well here, with six top 25s and 12 cuts made in 17 tries. We don’t hate Glover at this price by any means. 

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2023 Valspar Championship, Date & TV

When: Thursday-Sunday, March 16-19

Where: Innisbrook Resort, Palm Harbor, Florida

TV: Golf Channel, NBC

About the Author

Dan Kilbridge for Bookies.com
Dan Kilbridge
Handicapper Dan Kilbridge writes about college football, MLB and other sports for Bookies.com after spending three years covering Tiger Woods’ comeback and the PGA for Golfweek.