Kentucky Derby 2025 Odds, Best Bets & Predictions

By Adam Thompson

May 1st, 2025 9:24 PM EDT

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The last time Bookies.com handicapper Adam Thompson posted picks for a Triple Crown race, he nailed the Belmont Stakes trifecta, resulting in a massive $500 win on a $3 wager for those tailing his choices .

Now he’s back for the 2025 season, starting with the most prestigious race in the sport, the Kentucky Derby.

Thompson has been crushing horse racing betting for the last three years. Last year he cashed on eight of the 13 races at the Belmont Stakes Saturday, and won more than half the races at this year’s Preakness Stakes before.

Now he has set his sights on the 151th running of the Kentucky Derby. The massive 21-horse field goes to post at 6:57 p.m. ET on Saturday, May 3.

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2025 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs

Saturday, May 3 | 6:57 p.m. ET | NBC

The more horses in a race, the tougher it is to handicap. It’s easy for a favorite to get stuck behind a pile of horses, unable to get free until it’s too late. There are 21 horses slated to run in this year’s Kentucky Derby.

It can be tricky to go with any one horse, but morning line favorite JOURNALISM (#8, 3/1 odds) has the tools and the position to make it work. The Michael McCarthy-trained horse has won four straight, including the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. His speed times are far above the rest of the field.

In our exotics bets, we’ll pair Journalism with three horses of varying horse racing odds at sports betting apps.

RODRIGUEZ (#4, 8-1) has never finished outside the Top 3 in five career races, the latter three were against top competition that he’ll see again at Churchill Downs. There are other horses were like with far higher odds, however.

CITIZEN BULL (#1, 17-1) took fourth at Santa Anita, faltering after leading for most of the race. That was the first defeat in four races for the Bob Baffert horse. Overall, Bull has the second-best speed times of any racer.

The ultimate dark horse in the mix for us is BAEZA (#21, 52-1), the second-longest longshot in the entire field, coming from way outside. Baeza’s three races this year, he won one of them and took second in the others, to Journalism, and to Rodriguez. Another strength-of-schedule pick, but one with massive odds.

With so many horses in the field, anything is possible, so Baeza is part of our Exacta Box. Rich Strike won the 2022 Derby at 80/1 odds.

Here’s how we’re betting on the Derby and every race at Churchill Downs on Saturday, plus the Kentucky Oaks on Friday.

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Kentucky Derby Picks

$10 To Win: 8 ($10)
$3 Exacta Box: 1,8,21 ($18)
$.50 Trifecta: 1,8 with 1,4,8,21 with 1,4,8,21 ($12)

Churchill Downs Saturday Picks

RACE 1: 4 To Win; Exacta Box 2,4,9
RACE 2: 10 To Win
RACE 3: Exacta Box 5,6,7
RACE 4: 13 To Win
RACE 5: 10 To Win; Exacta Box 6,8,10
RACE 6: 6 To Win
RACE 7: 3 To Win
RACE 8: 11 To Win; Exacta Box 2,10,11
RACE 9: 7 To Win
RACE 10: 10 To Win; Exacta Box 2,7,8
RACE 11: 3 To Win; Exacta Box 3,10
RACE 12: Kentucky Derby, See Above
RACE 13: 11 To Win
RACE 14: 12 To Win; Exacta 12 with 5,13
KENTUCKY OAKS (Fri)-DERBY (Sat) DOUBLE: Oaks 11; Derby 8

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About the Author

Adam Thompson

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Long established as one of the nation's premier handicappers, Adam Thompson joined Bookies.com in 2019 after a successful run as senior handicapper for SportsLine & CBSSports.com. He specializes in the NFL and MLB, where he's hit on well over 60% of his picks the past five years. Adam's NBA and horse racing picks have also produced consistent, major winners over the years.