AdventHealth 400 Predictions, NASCAR Odds & Betting Picks For Kansas

The past two months have provided about as diverse a selection of tracks as NASCAR can offer: A road course, three short tracks (one of those dirt), a superspeedway, a high-banked concrete oval and the oldest major track in the sport. Now the series embarks on three consecutive weekends of racing on bread-and-butter 1.5-mile tri-ovals, beginning Sunday at Kansas Speedway.

What does that mean for NASCAR betting enthusiasts? Even in a next-gen era when car parts are made by common manufacturers, the horsepower demands of 1.5-mile tri-ovals still benefit those teams able to wring the most speed out of their engines. It’s no coincidence that the three intermediate tri-oval races conducted so far this season—Fontana, Las Vegas and Atlanta—were all won by drivers from Hendrick Motorsports, the best organization in the sport.

While things can still go haywire on tri-ovals due to late cautions, fuel mileage or pit strategy, from a NASCAR picks standpoint, it’s probably best to stick to what you know. Chew on this along with your burnt ends: Kyle Larson won the most recent race at Kansas last fall, Chase Elliott has the second-best average finish there (behind Kevin Harvick, who hasn’t won in forever) and Hendrick has won five straight races on intermediates dating back to last season.

AdventHealth 400 At Kansas Speedway Odds

NASCAR odds current as of publication from DraftKings. For more information visit the DraftKings promo code page.

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AdventHealth 400 Predictions & Betting Tips

Nine active drivers have career victories at Kansas, led by Harvick, Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano with three apiece. Harvick hasn’t won in 55 weeks, and Hamlin outside of his Richmond victory is having a pretty miserable year—he’s down there with Michael McDowell in the points standings.

While Logano needed to find his footing in this new car, he’d been knocking on the door of Victory Lane this spring before finally kicking it down last week in Darlington, where he led 107 laps.

Busch, the odds favorite on betting sites and betting apps, has two KCK victories including the race last spring. We’re quite vexed on Kyle right now, given that he continues to run well almost every week (a crash at Darlington notwithstanding) but struggles to translate those performances into victories.

His lone win in 2022 was the gift on the Bristol dirt when the leaders spun each other out racing to the finish. Larson meanwhile continues to battle DNFs—an engine failure at Darlington was his fourth of the season, compared to two all of last year.

Larson’s Hendrick teammate Alex Bowman has notched a second and a third at Kansas since 2019, while William Byron has been top-10 in five straight starts there. Kansas doesn’t exactly spread the wealth; just 13 active drivers have top-fives there, a number that doesn’t include Ross Chastain (best finish of 13th) or Tyler Reddick (best finish seventh).

And while Martin Truex Jr. has an excellent record at Kansas, with nine of his last 10 in the top-10, including two wins, he’s been better than 12th just once over the last five weeks.

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AdventHealth 400 Three Best Bets

Chase Elliott to Win

Odds: +800 at BetMGM

Elliott looks every bit the points leader after knocking out his fifth consecutive top-10 finish last weekend at Darlington, a run that also includes a victory at Dover. His Kansas record is excellent—just one finish worse than sixth over his last seven starts, a span that encompasses a victory and a pair of runner-ups.

Austin Dillon Top 5

Odds: +1000 at DraftKings

Good value on betting apps for an overlooked driver who’s enjoying a nice season and has turned in solid runs at Kansas before. Dillon has posted top-10 finishes in five of his last seven starts, a run that includes a ninth-place result last week at Darlington. He’s also been 11th, 10th and 10th in his last three starts at Kansas, where he’s twice posted a career-best finish of sixth.

Joey Logano Top Ford

Odds: +240 at BetMGM

Ryan Blaney may sit one spot higher in the season standings, but Logano is the best in the Ford stable right now. His victory at Darlington made Logano just the second Ford driver to win this season, after Phoenix surprise Chase Briscoe. Throw out Dover and Talladega where he was caught up in crashes, and Logano has gone second, third and first.

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AdventHealth 400 Time, Date and TV

When: Sunday, 3 p.m.

Where: Kansas Speedway, Kansas City, Kansas

TV: FS1